allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But how warm? Can't win here? No I am saying if u look at the 6z rgem posted above it is no where near dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One observation the gfs initialized at kfrg with a temp of 36 at 6z, the temp was 34. The nam initialized at 34. I would go with the nam temp profile rather than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 For the NYC area, it looks like we will be relying on and hoping for insane snow rates for a few hours to develop probably between midnight and 7 am Saturday or so. SREF shows greater than 50%+ chance of rain for several hours most of the day Friday and friday evening before switching to all snow Friday night. The no rain above here line sets up from around 287 in NJ east to southern CT and just north of cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 After I pick up my GF today in PA I am thinking of trying to make it into the area. I have AWD and am used to driving in snow. What do you think about Waterbury CT? Is that a pretty safe bet to see 20" plus? I know going further east would be even better but at some point its going to just get too bad to drive and that's probably the furthest I can realistically get. Originally I was thinking northern NJ then CT as the models have shifted east the last few runs, but now I am wondering if even western CT is safely into the real heavy snows. I have a holiday inn hotel in Marlboro MA, I have 2 beds and the guy I was going to share it with didn't come, you're def welcome to stay if you want, throw me a few bones no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY INTOSATURDAY...NYZ078>081-177-179-081730-/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK.* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY EVENING.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED... CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDSAND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUTCONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IFYOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GETSTRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... Lol I didn't hear that...Did he say that? Well it's probably due to the continuing north east trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... Wouldn't shock me, but to a lesser extent, precip 1-2 hours away but looks to come in hard, definitely some wasted QPF looking likely. Hopefully its more sleet instead of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol I didn't hear that...Did he say that? Well it's probably due to the continuing north east trend well he just compared the location of the phase from that storm with this one and why 2001 was a bust for us... just surprised to hear it from him though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol you guys are relentless over a 6z suit. I guarantee 12z will adjust back to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asw Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bill Evans compared it to the 2001 bust saying in that storm, things did not come together, but in this one they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One observation the gfs initialized at kfrg with a temp of 36 at 6z, the temp was 34. The nam initialized at 34. I would go with the nam temp profile rather than the gfs. I think too much is made of whether a model initialized one or two degrees too warm/cold and then extrapolate it to a models future performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bill Evans compared it to the 2001 bust saying in that storm, things did not come together, but in this one they are. He should know better than to bring that up before the snow has begun ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol you guys are relentless over a 6z suit. I guarantee 12z will adjust back to the west Idk, that's just hypothetical. I think too much is made of whether a model initialized one or two degrees too warm/cold and then extrapolate it to a models future performance. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... You are mis stating what he said. His point was that a lot of pieces need to come together for a storm like this to happen. He said that in 2001 it happened up north This time its happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bill Evans compared it to the 2001 bust saying in that storm, things did not come together, but in this one they are. thanks for posting this... I was just about to... he never said that was going to happen but stating how this is the opposite. Guys relax and enjoy the storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think we should be WSW rather than blizzard warning for NYC and NE NJ....the blizzard warning should be limited to Long Island and new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hey guys projecting at this point is fruitless ma nature blesses us with probably an historic storm nimby effect is envy over nothing last week i was pissing on sparkplugs, Beggars can't be choosy i'll take whatever i get and my gut says alot of surprises and disappointments are going to happen part of the game.Stunningly beautiful on radar she is pissed off get your ticket for the magic carpet ride.I'm so pumped i'm not drinking coffee see ya peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think we should be WSW rather than blizzard warning for NYC and NE NJ....the blizzard warning should be limited to Long Island and new england Its not a measure of snow for the 1000X time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the radar really looks insane right now... let this play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The radar definitely looks better than what the gfs had right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think we should be WSW rather than blizzard warning for NYC and NE NJ....the blizzard warning should be limited to Long Island and new england Its not a measure of snow for the 1000X time. Seriously man ? Yes obviously blizzard is not simply a measure of snow. My statement is saying that most likely Long Island and New England will verify blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The radar definitely looks better than what the gfs had right now. Kind of, this is often overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Seriously man ? Yes obviously blizzard is not simply a measure of snow. My statement is saying that most likely Long Island and New England will verify blizzard conditions. I think winds and visibility verifies for most, as far as how much snow we get is different. I agree with Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The radar definitely looks better than what the gfs had right now. Kind of, this is often overstated. Lol jcrash you are going to turn into the "me" from last night with the negativity LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Base on the radar..gfs is too far east actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow. The radar looks intense, and it def looks like the NAM. Look at all that energy, when this phases....KABANGA! This is going to take a more west track. I really think the NAM may be correct, just QPF a bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I can't believe NYC schools are still open and I have to go to work. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hey guys projecting at this point is fruitless ma nature blesses us with probably an historic storm nimby effect is envy over nothing last week i was pissing on sparkplugs, Beggars can't be choosy i'll take whatever i get and my gut says alot of surprises and disappointments are going to happen part of the game.Stunningly beautiful on radar she is pissed off get your ticket for the magic carpet ride.I'm so pumped i'm not drinking coffee see ya peace You got the right idea mulen. We've been following these things for too long to twist on model runs at this point. Storm looks healthy, sit back and enjoy! See ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 06z NAM seems like a possibility for the area....yesterday's runs and 00z were overdone and too far west but 06z could be close as it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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