IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 pretty sure they come out at 3am Ack! Sorry. I need some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol well I'll take the word of the text soundings over that any day. yeah i dont know how good they are or not.... but they match the totals famartin posts. also, you were given a qpf total... not a snow total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There is a sharp cutoff to west per wunderground snow maps. Looks like Philly is 3-5". IMBY it shows 9 - 14", was 11-17" so two inches no big deal, I'd sign off on this in a heart beat. Lets just hope the east trend was just a correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What do we think the ratio's with this storm will be. In places that are all snow. 10:1? more, if you find yourself under megabands...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Feeling pretty confident now that most of the NYC metro area will get 10-20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Temp up to 34 now in western Nassau as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the nam was just model porn, nothing more. some might have tossed some wieners out their kitchen windows but thats about it, and nothing wrong with that either. but the realists knew what the nam was. you dont come across well in your posts. rather than just laying your ideas out, you make it your days goal to be right and prove you know it. the point is not to be right but to discuss and learn, possibly goofing up in the process, but being positive regardless of your position. yet you tend to just hammer the same thing over and over again....so no, im not arguing model runs, im arguing the way you post. Well I apologize then to those that I offended/annoyed by the negativity of some of my posts. Surely I get a bit too worked up over it....being positive is not just a way of thinking that goes a long way in weather models but life overall. The way you came across is not exactly as a positive peacemaker though, either. But...moving on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Feeling pretty confident now that most of the NYC metro area will get 10-20" of snow. Yup. West to East/South to North. Well on that note, pleased with how the Euro held strong for the most part and stuck to it's guns. As I said I am now discounting all the other globals not in agreement with the Euro in a similar way. I predict the Euro ensembles continue to trend as they have all along and come in as cold or colder, wetter and west in track. However, I am exhausted and am not going to be able to wait for them to come out so good night all and here's the snow song I am known to post before an impending big snow and have done so for 12 years on weather message boards, enjoy and good night: Based on Supertramp's title track to the album Crime of the Century: Now winter's planning, the storm of the century. Well when, will it be? Read all about the snow and strong gusty winds. Yes, It's well worth a fee So bundle up and see...(loud but brief guitar intrusion) How it pounds the universe How it's gone from bad to worse Who are these mets. of lust, greed and glory Steal their models and let's see But that forecast's not right, oh no what's the story? Well there's a temp. of 43... (Shut up, that can't be right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah i dont know how good they are or not.... but they match the totals famartin posts. also, you were given a qpf total... not a snow total Yes but the 1.16'' QPF was all snow. Even with just 10:1 ratios that's about a foot. In Middlesex we may get slightly more QPF but that's probably lost due to a little rain/sleet mixing so in the end it probably evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Torching nicely here at 38/34. Deform banding will wack that down in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DP up to 30 and temp 35. May be a stuggle for a while as expected. Its going to be real close, the dewpoints are not going up as much as I'd have thought, if we are 35/28 or so when precip arrives it could get interesting but then we have the issue of whats happening at 850-925 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SLP OBS is closer to the 00Z NAM than the 00Z GFS at 06Z OBS. The temperature profile is also similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DP up to 30 and temp 35. May be a stuggle for a while as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SLP OBS is closer to the 00Z NAM than the 00Z GFS at 06Z OBS. The temperature profile is also similar to the NAM. What did the nam show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What did the nam show The 06Z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 06Z NAM? 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00z BECS. Not really likely. HECS is more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yes but the 1.16'' QPF was all snow. Even with just 10:1 ratios that's about a foot. In Middlesex we may get slightly more QPF but that's probably lost due to a little rain/sleet mixing so in the end it probably evens out. i dont think the 1.16 is all snow. mt. holly's forecast for SMQ has rain in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Was it supposed to be so warm tonight on LI? My weather thing says 37* in Baldwin (south nassau) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anybody know what the latest sref showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anybody know what the latest sref showed? Looks exactly like the 21z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i dont think the 1.16 is all snow. mt. holly's forecast for SMQ has rain in it. I'm aware Mt. Holly's forecast has rain but I'm not sure how that's relevant. ag3's opinion of the Euro run verbatim based on the text soundings is that it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anybody know what the latest sref showed? Ticked just a little further east and slightly weaker, but pretty much maintained QPF from earlier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREFs are still very juicy. Actually even wetter on LI. 03z SREFs: 21z SREFs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php click on 3hr precip increments and fast foward. i've never seen rates that high on the BTV WRF meso (4km version). if you go to 1900 and 2200 frame tommorrow , each 3 hr period has nyc getting a shade over 1" qpf. lmao http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rad33.html 0z hrrr destroys NYC with 3.75 qpf. now i'm not saying they are gonna verify, no but damn they are showing a nice banding signal for NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM at 6hr is maybe 20 miles east of 0z...precip shield looks about the same with the exception of not being as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The furthest north the 850 0 line on the SREF gets is to about NYC and southern LI at 21z. Otherwise, it's south of them the whole run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Very glad to hear about the SREF. Seems to be in line with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM will probably look more like the euro now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam looks warmer at hour 12 vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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