LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What makes it likely we will get that warm? What mechanism is there in all of this to warm us up that much with pig cold high to our north? Is it roaring SE winds or something else? I honestly just don't buy that but hey what do I know which is why I am asking you lol. SE and E winds since the ocean is in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what are people going to say when the Euro goes east just enough to make this run of the mill... "Euro holds serve despite a minor eastward wobble! NYC still will get the lower end of totals ! 6-10" is still a solid storm. I'll take it and go with it" Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what are people going to say when the Euro goes east just enough to make this run of the mill... And if it holds serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what are people going to say when the Euro goes east just enough to make this run of the mill... That it's wrong and we should go with a 4km NAM/MM5/JMA Model blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No matter what the Euro does you still got a good bit of ensembles and higher res stuff on board for double digit snows for most of NYC immediate metro...is my answer to the "what if the euro shows ???" game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What makes it likely we will get that warm? What mechanism is there in all of this to warm us up that much with pig cold high to our north? Is it roaring SE winds or something else? I honestly just don't buy that but hey what do I know which is why I am asking you lol. Coastal DE and SRN NJ look like they'll get to 41-42 before precip starts, I'm more or less knocking 5 degrees off up this way with less marine influence on a E wind and cooler waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That it's wrong and we should go with a 4km NAM/MM5/JMA Model blend. Models do not dictate the weather. What we have seen today are some models showing a possible solution. Some are big hits and some are close calls. The thing is all solutions are possible but the exact track and phase is anyone's guess. All we can do is look at the guidance compare with obs and take a blend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00Z ECMWF initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And if it holds serve? The answer will be that it only has some of the hi-res models and the NAM with it. Of course that would mean people trust low resolution models over superior hi-resolution models 12 hours out and I say then to them let them go down with that ship then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And if it holds serve? IF... im pretty sure every model except the NAM is east...my gut tells me the EC will be a bit east..not to mention the southern stream disturbance is EAST of some of tonights guidance (Baroclinic Instability posted this in the NE thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what are people going to say when the Euro goes east just enough to make this run of the mill... Run of the mill would still be a significant snowstorm in this set up. Remember just a week ago we were freaking out over whether or not the RGEM showed 0.05" liquid with our clipper. Perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro has initialized! Only real difference is that the 543 dam contour in the northern stream has moved south about 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00Z ECMWF initialized. here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I doubt the Euro goes east that much when it's been this rock steady for multiple runs. People need to take a chill pill. Expect the rain/mix for a while along the coast, but look at the dynamics and rapid development that occurs with the coastal system. If it happens, the initial warmth really won't be much of a detriment for people along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Run of the mill would still be a significant snowstorm in this set up. Remember just a week ago we were freaking out over whether or not the RGEM showed 0.05" liquid with our clipper. Perspective. there is plenty of truth to this comment.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hmm, through 6 hours, the southern stream vorticity is a bit weaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Been hovering around 32-33 after going down to 31. NYC is up to 32 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 IF... im pretty sure every model except the NAM is east...my gut tells me the EC will be a bit east..not to mention the southern stream disturbance is EAST of some of tonights guidance (Baroclinic Instability posted this in the NE thread) It's only east of the NAM. It's west of all the other models' depictions at 0z. Water vapor map proves this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hmm, through 6 hours, the southern stream vorticity is a bit weaker... BAroclinic commented on this in the NE thread about 30 mins ago EDIT - the JMA isnt so east...2'QPF for NYC east area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hmm, through 6 hours, the southern stream vorticity is a bit weaker... I hope it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Southern stream wave is definitely a bit weaker and more progressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sounds like the globals are trending east. thissss, isnt good for the 18"+ amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 BAroclinic commented on this in the NE thread about 30 mins ago and the JMA is way east Accum precip is great though http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hmm....Euro is doing what I thought it'd do. It is DEFINITELY, DEFINITELY trending east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Southern stream wave is definitely a bit weaker and more progressive this run. had a feeling it would relent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Run of the mill would still be a significant snowstorm in this set up. Remember just a week ago we were freaking out over whether or not the RGEM showed 0.05" liquid with our clipper. Perspective. This is the best post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Kudos to the gfs then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Kudos to the gfs then. Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SLP position actually looks identical at 24 hours on the 00z vs 36 hours on the 12z, but the precip shield is just a tick east. This will still be a good run, but western portions of the area might cut back a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd say we're pretty much back to where we were during the 00z runs last night, except the NAM went from nothing to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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