SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow heading north, already up to central DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Higher temperatures = higher heights = more amplified = further west = positive feedback towards even more warmth than the initial 2-3 C error would indicate. Which means the NAM is a tad bit too West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ukie total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So what we should take away is that the NAM should have been a bit more east/lower qpf with the correction for the 2-3C error? Sure but no evidence to prove it would be as far east and as dry as the GFS in fact that differential would be no where near enough to get it all the way as east as the GFS was or as dry as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyone also very very impressed with the radar down south ? This thing is rich with moisture and I am starting to really believe that 2"+ total liquid is very possible over the area. You don't see a juicy system like this BEFORE the phase too often. Definitely, and I think that the developed system tomorrow night will be very nice indeed. The source region of all this moisture makes it more confident. Just not 5" in 6 hours like the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Which means the NAM is a tad bit too West. Which sucks for me because I would give up snow for the next ten years to have the 00z NAM verify in my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS and NAM both way out of wack, but if you average them you get something reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So what we should take away is that the NAM should have been a bit more east/lower qpf with the correction for the 2-3C error? That's the way I interpret it, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Got it. Thanks! No problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Which sucks for me because I would give up snow for the next ten years to have the 00z NAM verify in my back yard. Lol we all would but it was really outlandish like it always is. The 4km was utter hilarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ukie looks better right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is how much precip is frozen on the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol we all would but it was really outlandish like it always is. The 4km was utter hilarity. 4km would require a huge cutoff low and a El Nino STJ for it to occur.... We don't have either. Still hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 05Z RAP looks almost the same as the 00Z NAM at HR 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 05Z RAP looks almost the same as the 00Z NAM at HR 06. RAP? What exactly is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is how much precip is frozen on the ARW. so I guess that's 30+ inches in Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Going back to the whole warm temperatures equals higher heights thing: If it were the surface temperatures that were too warm, it wouldn't be a big deal, since those can cool easily with heavy precip. Also, the height of the surface isn't something that makes sense...it's just the surface...it always stays the same height. But if you're increasing your 850mb temperature, that generally means your 850mb heights are higher, which helps to shift the 850mb low further west. That can lead to precipitation and banding being thrown too far west, and obviously would lead to more warm tainting than an 850mb low further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Taking a look at the water vapor loop really leads me to believe that the NAM isn't that too far west. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so I guess that's 30+ inches in Boston 20 inches+ NYC, I think that works for me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I honestly think it will end up like the euro, should be a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Taking a look at the water vapor loop really leads me to believe that the NAM isn't that too far west. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Yeah, the radar, water vapor loop, and infrared are extremely impressive. I think it definitely proves that the GFS and other lower res globals are too far east. The SLP might end up closer to the NAM than the GFS -- but the initialization error of that much at the 850mb level cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ukie is similar to gfs. About .50" as snow for NYC or 4"-7". It has the same warm surface temp thru 7pm. Ggem is almost exact also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 tonight's Euro run is the biggest run of this whole storm. what it says probably will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol we all would but it was really outlandish like it always is. The 4km was utter hilarity. The in me is praying that it happens. The voice of reason is telling the that I should be glad it's not going to happen because 40" of snow is just too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ukie is similar to gfs. About .50" as snow for NYC or 4"-7". It has the same warm surface temp thru 7pm. Ggem is almost exact also. I find that very hard to believe given the radar and satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, the radar, water vapor loop, and infrared are extremely impressive. I think it definitely proves that the GFS and other lower res globals are too far east. The SLP might end up closer to the NAM than the GFS -- but the initialization error of that much at the 850mb level cannot be ignored. When you carefully examine the position of the developing center on water vapor and then draw a straight line with the motion the track is just off the Delmarva and inside the benchmark which matches the NAM very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, the radar, water vapor loop, and infrared are extremely impressive. I think it definitely proves that the GFS and other lower res globals are too far east. The SLP might end up closer to the NAM than the GFS -- but the initialization error of that much at the 850mb level cannot be ignored. No doubt but no way is that error enough to get it as east and dry as say the 0z GFS. Euro can't start soon enough. I think we will see it hold serve or even head to its 12z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ukie is similar to gfs. About .50" as snow for NYC or 4"-7". It has the same warm surface temp thru 7pm. Ggem is almost exact also. so you're saying over 60% of the ukie precip is rain/sleet>? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No doubt but no way is that error enough to get it as east and dry as say the 0z GFS. Euro can't start soon enough. I think we will see it hold serveor even head to its 12 z ensembles. Yeah, that error is definitely not enough to result in a GFS solution. A Euro solution perhaps, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ukie is similar to gfs. About .50" as snow for NYC or 4"-7". It has the same warm surface temp thru 7pm. Ggem is almost exact also. Water vapor proves that every single model that shows something like the GFS is going to likely fall flat on it's face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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