blizzard of 2013 discussion

[RedSky]

Larry Cosgrove is going with 2 feet for NYC

 

no wait didn't he cancel winter just days ago

[WintersGrasp]

Why would the NAM show current heavy precip into western SC when there is none?

[Sn0waddict]

i feel bad disagreeing with anice guy and a met like you but where else would you expect th nogaps to be knowing it obvious bias

He is refering the the NOGAPS SE bias..aka the GFS is an outlier.

[rickrd]

Not snowing here yet. 

snowing here in Nazareth, PA. Eastern PA east of Allentown.

Hoping this kills any Virga storm ahead of the main event.

[ny747pilot]

Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night....

and the euro has held serve how many consecutive runs now? I believe its 8 now and I would trust this over any other model. Btw, just look at your water vapor and radar, this is not heading ots

[green tube]

Craig is one of the best.  He just never allows himself to succumb to hyperbole.

 

it was interesting how he mentioned not giving in to the the euro..........

 

he did the same thing leading up to the blizzard of 1996...... ignored the euro..... and said the nearest decent snow to NYC would be 3 to 6" down around atlantic city.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Why would the NAM show current heavy precip into western SC when there is none?

There is Heavy precip over Central SC. 40 DBZ.

[friedmators]

Why would the NAM show current heavy precip into western SC when there is none?

You do realize 0Z is not now?

[bikerman262]

This was posted in the NE forum

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC

...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ...POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM HT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGION WILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOW CENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUT TO SEA LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE THEN INVOF THE BENCHMARK FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...BEFORE THEN PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. REGARDING THE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 18Z GFS...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 12Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z ECENS MEAN ACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THE 18Z GFS. BASED ON ALL THIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF ATTM.

[FreeRain]

Craig is one of the best.  He just never allows himself to succumb to hyperbole.

 

Fine and dandy. Then he shouldn't say that he is going to "play devils advocate on this to the end".

[SnoSki14]

I bet by tomorrow it will rip snow and all we be well. There's always some panic just before the storm begins.

[dbc]

and the euro has held serve how many consecutive runs now? I believe its 8 now and I would trust this over any other model. Btw, just look at your water vapor and radar, this is not heading ots

Yup and I am sorry but I do not know how anyone can actually claim the GFS depicted well at initialization and even if it did as someone mentioned it is not the initialization anyway it is down the line when the low jumps to nonexistant convection (i.e. the GFS feedback problem) that is an absurd solution and has 0 chance of verifying hence moving the low further east as shown at 0z.

[MJO812]

Lee Goldberg just said that he thinks the low will not scoot out east like the GFS shows. He also said that this will be the start of a rough February for our area.

[ace0927]

Craig is one of the best.  He just never allows himself to succumb to hyperbole.

which is one of the reasons why he is the best

[Snowshack]

I bet by tomorrow it will rip snow and all we be well. There's always some panic just before the storm begins.

Very true...

[dbc]

This was posted in the NE forum

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC

...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ...POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM HT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGION WILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOW CENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUT TO SEA LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE THEN INVOF THE BENCHMARK FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...BEFORE THEN PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. REGARDING THE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 18Z GFS...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 12Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z ECENS MEAN ACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THE 18Z GFS. BASED ON ALL THIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF ATTM.

This says it all. If the 0z Euro and it's Ensembles holds serve or improves snow wise, it's locked in with maybe minor variations and minor doesn't mean one foot difference in totals it means inconsequential.

[ace0927]

MM5 is tucked in almost along the Mid Atlantic coast through 18 hours...very similar to the NAM

but its colder

[IsentropicLift]

00z NAM bufkit numbers 

 

KMMU

 

 

130208/0700Z   7  08009KT  28.8F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0130208/0800Z   8  08010KT  29.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    6:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0130208/0900Z   9  08011KT  29.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0130208/1000Z  10  08010KT  29.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0130208/1100Z  11  07010KT  30.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   82| 18|  0130208/1200Z  12  06010KT  30.8F  SNPL    3:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.009    5:1|  0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.03   71| 29|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z  13  06010KT  31.5F  SNPL    6:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.021    6:1|  0.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.05   83| 17|  0130208/1400Z  14  06010KT  32.3F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.009    6:1|  0.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.06   31| 31| 39130208/1500Z  15  06012KT  32.8F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.056    6:1|  0.3|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.12   31| 14| 56130208/1600Z  16  06013KT  33.0F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    6:1|  0.3|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.18   19| 35| 45130208/1700Z  17  06016KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079    6:1|  0.3|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.26    0|  0|100130208/1800Z  18  06017KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    6:1|  0.3|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.34    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z  19  06017KT  32.1F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.113    6:1|  0.3|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.45    5| 95|  0130208/2000Z  20  05019KT  32.1F  SNPL    2:1| 0.2|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.135    3:1|  0.5|| 0.47|| 0.00|| 0.59   39| 61|  0130208/2100Z  21  05020KT  31.7F  SNPL    4:1| 0.6|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.171    3:1|  1.1|| 0.60|| 0.00|| 0.76   60| 40|  0130208/2200Z  22  04019KT  30.8F  SNOW    8:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202    5:1|  2.8|| 0.60|| 0.00|| 0.96   92|  8|  0130208/2300Z  23  04019KT  30.3F  SNOW    9:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.206    6:1|  4.6|| 0.60|| 0.00|| 1.16   91|  9|  0130209/0000Z  24  03019KT  30.6F  SNPL    7:1| 2.1|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.307    6:1|  6.7|| 0.86|| 0.00|| 1.47   59| 41|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z  25  02019KT  30.8F  SNPL   10:1| 4.3|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.435    7:1| 11.0|| 1.05|| 0.00|| 1.91   78| 22|  0130209/0200Z  26  01018KT  29.6F  SNPL   14:1| 4.1|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.304    8:1| 15.1|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 2.21   86| 14|  0130209/0300Z  27  36017KT  28.1F  SNOW   18:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.324   10:1| 20.9|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 2.53  100|  0|  0130209/0400Z  28  35017KT  26.5F  SNOW   17:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.327   11:1| 26.4|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 2.86  100|  0|  0130209/0500Z  29  34017KT  24.7F  SNOW   12:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.309   11:1| 30.2|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.17  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  30  34018KT  23.6F  SNOW   12:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207   11:1| 32.7|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.38  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z  31  33018KT  23.3F  SNOW   17:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153   11:1| 35.3|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.53  100|  0|  0130209/0800Z  32  34018KT  22.7F  SNOW   22:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129   12:1| 38.1|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.66  100|  0|  0130209/0900Z  33  34019KT  21.8F  SNOW   21:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135   12:1| 40.9|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.79  100|  0|  0130209/1000Z  34  34021KT  21.5F  SNOW   17:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   12:1| 42.9|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.90  100|  0|  0130209/1100Z  35  34021KT  21.5F  SNOW   17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062   12:1| 43.9|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.97  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  36  33021KT  21.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   12:1| 44.1|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 3.99  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z  37  33021KT  21.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   12:1| 44.1|| 1.13|| 0.00|| 4.00  100|  0|  0KHPN

 

130208/1300Z  13  08015KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   58|  0| 42130208/1400Z  14  08016KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   58|  0| 42130208/1500Z  15  08017KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   70|  0| 30130208/1600Z  16  07019KT  32.6F  SNPL    6:1| 0.4|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.059    6:1|  0.4|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.10   58| 32| 10130208/1700Z  17  07020KT  32.4F  SNPL    3:1| 0.2|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.070    5:1|  0.6|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.17   40| 55|  5130208/1800Z  18  07021KT  32.3F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 0.057    4:1|  0.7|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.23   21| 79|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z  19  07021KT  32.4F  SNPL    3:1| 0.2|| 0.09|| 0.00|| 0.078    3:1|  0.9|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.31   45| 49|  5130208/2000Z  20  06022KT  31.9F  SNOW    4:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098    4:1|  1.3|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0130208/2100Z  21  06023KT  31.5F  SNPL    7:1| 0.7|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.097    4:1|  1.9|| 0.33|| 0.00|| 0.50   89| 11|  0130208/2200Z  22  05022KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    5:1|  3.0|| 0.33|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0130208/2300Z  23  05023KT  30.8F  SNPL    8:1| 1.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.224    6:1|  4.9|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 0.84   84| 16|  0130209/0000Z  24  03024KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.400    6:1|  4.9|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 1.24    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z  25  02024KT  32.6F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.68|| 0.00|| 0.342    6:1|  4.9|| 1.09|| 0.00|| 1.59    2| 97|  1130209/0200Z  26  01023KT  32.6F  SNPL   10:1| 2.6|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.263    7:1|  7.5|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 1.85   73| 17| 10130209/0300Z  27  36022KT  29.7F  SNOW   13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124    8:1|  9.0|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 1.97  100|  0|  0130209/0400Z  28  36021KT  28.1F  SNOW   13:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.188    8:1| 11.5|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.16  100|  0|  0130209/0500Z  29  35020KT  25.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157    9:1| 13.4|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.32  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  30  34020KT  23.8F  SNOW   11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113    9:1| 14.6|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.43  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z  31  34021KT  22.0F  SNOW   14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    9:1| 16.2|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.55  100|  0|  0130209/0800Z  32  34022KT  20.9F  SNOW   22:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   10:1| 19.0|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.68  100|  0|  0130209/0900Z  33  34023KT  20.2F  SNOW   32:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129   11:1| 23.0|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.80  100|  0|  0130209/1000Z  34  34024KT  19.7F  SNOW   29:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108   12:1| 26.2|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.91  100|  0|  0130209/1100Z  35  34025KT  18.9F  SNOW   18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079   13:1| 27.6|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 2.99  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  36  34026KT  18.2F  SNOW   17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   13:1| 28.2|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 3.03  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z  37  34026KT  17.9F  SNOW   17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018   13:1| 28.5|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 3.05  100|  0|  0130209/1400Z  38  34026KT  18.0F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   13:1| 28.6|| 1.23|| 0.00|| 3.05  100|  0|  0KSWF

 

 

130208/1100Z  11  07008KT  25.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    6:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0130208/1200Z  12  06008KT  25.4F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z  13  05009KT  26.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0130208/1400Z  14  06010KT  28.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    6:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0130208/1500Z  15  07011KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    7:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0130208/1600Z  16  07012KT  31.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    7:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0130208/1700Z  17  07012KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    8:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0130208/1800Z  18  06013KT  30.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    8:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z  19  06014KT  29.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047    8:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0130208/2000Z  20  06015KT  29.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    8:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0130208/2100Z  21  05016KT  29.4F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    7:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0130208/2200Z  22  05018KT  29.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    7:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0130208/2300Z  23  04018KT  28.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111    7:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0130209/0000Z  24  04019KT  27.6F  SNOW    8:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.171    7:1|  4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z  25  03021KT  26.9F  SNOW    9:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217    8:1|  6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0130209/0200Z  26  02022KT  25.8F  SNOW   10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202    8:1|  8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.03  100|  0|  0130209/0300Z  27  01023KT  24.3F  SNOW   11:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.232    9:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27  100|  0|  0130209/0400Z  28  01023KT  22.4F  SNOW   13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.241    9:1| 14.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.51  100|  0|  0130209/0500Z  29  36020KT  20.6F  SNOW   11:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.300   10:1| 17.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.81  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  30  35018KT  19.5F  SNOW   11:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.289   10:1| 20.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.10  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z  31  35018KT  19.1F  SNOW   21:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.270   11:1| 26.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.37  100|  0|  0130209/0800Z  32  35020KT  18.8F  SNOW   26:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228   12:1| 32.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.59  100|  0|  0130209/0900Z  33  35022KT  18.6F  SNOW   23:1| 4.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193   13:1| 36.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.79  100|  0|  0130209/1000Z  34  35023KT  18.6F  SNOW   18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124   13:1| 39.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.91  100|  0|  0130209/1100Z  35  35024KT  18.2F  SNOW   18:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081   14:1| 40.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.99  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  36  35023KT  17.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048   13:1| 40.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.04  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z  37  35022KT  17.7F  SNOW   11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   13:1| 41.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.06  100|  0|  0130209/1400Z  38  35022KT  18.8F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   13:1| 41.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.07  100|  0|  0KLGA

 

130208/0600Z   6  08008KT  31.9F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    6:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/0700Z   7  09009KT  32.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0130208/0800Z   8  08011KT  32.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0130208/0900Z   9  08011KT  32.4F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   90|  0| 10130208/1000Z  10  08010KT  33.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03   79|  0| 21130208/1100Z  11  08011KT  33.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|  0130208/1200Z  12  07011KT  34.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z  13  07011KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100130208/1400Z  14  07011KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|100130208/1500Z  15  06013KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100130208/1600Z  16  06015KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18    0|  0|100130208/1700Z  17  06017KT  34.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|  0|100130208/1800Z  18  06018KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z  19  06019KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43    0|  0|100130208/2000Z  20  05021KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.156    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59    0|  0|100130208/2100Z  21  05023KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.209    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80    0|  0|100130208/2200Z  22  04024KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.309    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11    0|  0|100130208/2300Z  23  04025KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.393    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.50    0|  0|100130209/0000Z  24  03025KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.357    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.86    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z  25  02023KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.350    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.21    0|  0|100130209/0200Z  26  01020KT  32.3F  SNOW   13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217   12:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.43  100|  0|  0130209/0300Z  27  36020KT  30.6F  SNOW   14:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.187   13:1|  5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.61  100|  0|  0130209/0400Z  28  35019KT  29.0F  SNOW   10:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198   12:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.81  100|  0|  0130209/0500Z  29  34019KT  26.9F  SNOW    8:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178   11:1|  9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.99  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  30  34019KT  24.7F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140   11:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.13  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z  31  33020KT  23.1F  SNOW   11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130   11:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.26  100|  0|  0130209/0800Z  32  33020KT  22.2F  SNOW   20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119   12:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.38  100|  0|  0130209/0900Z  33  34020KT  21.6F  SNOW   27:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   13:1| 17.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.50  100|  0|  0130209/1000Z  34  34021KT  21.1F  SNOW   18:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118   14:1| 19.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.62  100|  0|  0130209/1100Z  35  34021KT  20.7F  SNOW   16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093   14:1| 21.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.71  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  36  34022KT  20.4F  SNOW   12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   14:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.75  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z  37  34022KT  20.4F  SNOW    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   14:1| 21.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.77  100|  0|  0130209/1400Z  38  34022KT  21.1F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003   14:1| 21.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.77  100|  0|  0KJFK

 

130208/0600Z   6  09010KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   78|  0| 22----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/0700Z   7  09011KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   75|  0| 25130208/0800Z   8  08012KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   77|  0| 23130208/0900Z   9  08012KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   68|  0| 32130208/1000Z  10  08012KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|  0130208/1100Z  11  08013KT  35.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|  0130208/1200Z  12  08013KT  35.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z  13  08012KT  36.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100130208/1400Z  14  07013KT  36.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|100130208/1500Z  15  06014KT  36.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11    0|  0|100130208/1600Z  16  06016KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100130208/1700Z  17  06018KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25    0|  0|100130208/1800Z  18  06019KT  34.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z  19  05020KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47    0|  0|100130208/2000Z  20  05022KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.162    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.64    0|  0|100130208/2100Z  21  05025KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.240    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88    0|  0|100130208/2200Z  22  04026KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.330    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.21    0|  0|100130208/2300Z  23  03029KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.361    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.57    0|  0|100130209/0000Z  24  02029KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.310    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.88    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z  25  02026KT  33.3F  SNPL    3:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.272    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.15   19| 71| 10130209/0200Z  26  01023KT  32.3F  SNOW   13:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.136    4:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.28  100|  0|  0130209/0300Z  27  36023KT  31.0F  SNOW   12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160    6:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.44  100|  0|  0130209/0400Z  28  35021KT  29.4F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159    7:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.60  100|  0|  0130209/0500Z  29  35020KT  27.6F  SNOW    7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144    7:1|  6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.75  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  30  34020KT  25.2F  SNOW    9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.122    7:1|  7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.87  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z  31  34021KT  23.3F  SNOW   10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118    7:1|  8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.99  100|  0|  0130209/0800Z  32  34021KT  22.4F  SNOW   18:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111    8:1| 10.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.10  100|  0|  0130209/0900Z  33  34022KT  21.6F  SNOW   24:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115   10:1| 13.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.21  100|  0|  0130209/1000Z  34  34023KT  21.1F  SNOW   18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109   10:1| 14.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.32  100|  0|  0130209/1100Z  35  34023KT  20.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095   10:1| 15.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.42  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  36  34023KT  20.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044   10:1| 16.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.46  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z  37  34023KT  19.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   10:1| 16.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.48  100|  0|  0130209/1400Z  38  34023KT  20.4F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   10:1| 16.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.48  100|  0|  0

[ny747pilot]

This is a notorious issue with the gfs just as the Nam is notorious for spitting out ungodly qpf forecasts with these types of events. Likewise models tend to overdo the warmth for coastal areas in these situations. This is why its called forecasting and not modeling.

[jm1220]

As has been said, this is a very difficult type of storm to forecast because of the enormous dynamics and energy going into it. Shifts here and there with certain players can have large downstream impacts. That said, models that have had consistency (i.e. not the GFS or NAM) and past skill forecasting these type of systems (again not the GFS or NAM) should be preferred. I think by this time tomorrow night we all will be quite happy.

[ny747pilot]

but its colder

The mm5 is a rather handy forecast model.

[jm1220]

but its colder

This is also when the MM5 starts becoming a useful model.

 

The bridge jumping over an errant GFS run is crazy.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The Coastal SLP is is getting stronger right now.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The isobar contours are pointing to over HSE.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

This is a notorious issue with the gfs just as the Nam is notorious for spitting out ungodly qpf forecasts with these types of events. Likewise models tend to overdo the warmth for coastal areas in these situations. This is why its called forecasting and not modeling.

At this point, I think it would be reasonable to split the difference in QPF between the NAM and the GFS--Then you get about what the ECMWF has forecasted for most of the last week (aside from maybe one or two runs)--around 2.00" or so. I believe the NAM is warmer than it will be. I suspect this is all or mostly snow, with a little rain and sleet possibly mixed in at times especially tomorrow morning. I think if we only accumulate tomorrow night into early Saturday, NYC immediate area gets around 16-20", but if we actually do start to pile up during the day tomorrow, add on 3-6".

WX/PT

[friedmators]

[IsentropicLift]

I think an ECMWF/SREF/NAM blend is probably in order with 3/5 weight to the Euro given the consistency. Take the 00z NAM snowfall totals and cut them in half and it's 18-24" for most of the area and 12-18" for areas that start out as rain or a mix. (Mainly South and East of NYC). This is of course assuming that the 00z Euro continues to look more like the NAM and nothing like the GFS. 

[Dsnowx53]

The MM5 and RGEM are more accurate and reliable short term models than the NAM and GFS.

 

People need to realize that the RGEM runs 4DVAR! That's the initialization scheme that the Euro runs. 

[Dsnowx53]

At this point, I think it would be reasonable to split the difference in QPF between the NAM and the GFS--Then you get about what the ECMWF has forecasted for most of the last week (aside from maybe one or two runs)--around 2.00" or so. I believe the NAM is warmer than it will be. I suspect this is all or mostly snow, with a little rain and sleet possibly mixed in at times especially tomorrow morning. I think if we only accumulate tomorrow night into early Saturday, NYC immediate area gets around 16-20", but if we actually do start to pile up during the day tomorrow, add on 3-6".

WX/PT

 

 

I agree with your thoughts to a tee. 

[ace0927]

The MM5 and RGEM are more accurate and reliable short term models than the NAM and GFS.

 

People need to realize that the RGEM runs 4DVAR! That's the initialization scheme that the Euro runs. 

the MM5 nailed the boxing day storm...and im sure others but i distinctly remember that one