MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro has been really consistent. The euro ensembles at 12z were slightly west of the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow making its way into NWNJ. Anyone up there with reports? In southern Sussex County and nothing yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Save this one Already saved. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow making its way into NWNJ. Anyone up there with reports? very light flakes in Highland lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM total qpf looks about 1.5 - 2 CT,LI.....1 - 1.25 NYC/N-NJ..... 0.75 - 1 southwest of City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF mean plumes EWR: 15" LGA: 16" JFK: 13" ISP: 16" HPN: 18" BDR: 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow making its way into NWNJ. Anyone up there with reports? Not snowing here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... 2 days ago the GFS had this storm in Bermuda..please get your facts right..the ONLY model that has held serve for 5 days in a row has been the Euro I understand....but despite holding serve for 5 days....it still does not make it the final solution as we near closer to the event. Models such as the GFS are still collecting current data and modeling it....and the GFS has had the storm modeled for some time as well. I suspect the euro will shift s and e....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro has been really consistent. The euro ensembles at 12z were slightly west of the operational. Yea lets see if the 0z follows the Ensembles like last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MM5 at 18 is already well west of the Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sorry I had to take a screenshot since I can't save the multi layered image- tonight's 00z NAM looks good on the snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Craig Allen says "I am going to play devils advocate... on this to the very end." As written, it doesn't sound like somebody who is interested in getting it right. Craig is one of the best. He just never allows himself to succumb to hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I understand....but despite holding serve for 5 days....it still does not make it the final solution as we near closer to the event. Models such as the GFS are still collecting current data and modeling it....and the GFS has had the storm modeled for some time as well. I suspect the euro will shift s and e....we'll see ok, ill bite, why do u expect it wil? and dont respond with because the gfs did, that is modelology not meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So pretty to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Save this one Talk about an HECS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NOGAPS is basically the GFS, again big red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MM5 at 18 is already well west of the Goofus short range models are really the ones to look at now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Larry Cosgrove is going with 2 feet for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MM5 is tucked in almost along the Mid Atlantic coast through 18 hours...very similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Guys....compare the NAM 00 hour sim radar to the current radar....the NAM's depiction is well west of the current....the GFS seems to match up much much betwe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NOGAPS is basically the GFS, again big red flag. As in Bad? I am still waiting for the calculated snowfall maps to load for the 00z GFS. Might not be totally bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A few flakes in Frenchtown. Waiting for my 3-6 yea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NOGAPS is basically the GFS, again big red flag. You mean NOGAPS is so bad that its support of the GFS makes the GFS more likely to be wrong? If so, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NOGAPS is basically the GFS, again big red flag. i feel bad disagreeing with anice guy and a met like you but where else would you expect th nogaps to be knowing it obvious bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NOGAPS is basically the GFS, again big red flag. mentioning that piece of garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Based on the GFS and current OBS at 00Z, the GFS initialized 50 miles south and 1 mB weaker than the 00Z OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yea lets see if the 0z follows the OP like last night This is why you go with the Euro. A lesson was learned in February 1983 when the LFM (also not always consistent) cut down on amounts on the February 11th storm at 00Z to about .73". You cannot follow every model run verbatim at this point. Follow the best, the Euro, and look at the radar and hourly observations, that's how you'll really know what's coming! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Also, the precipitation plume is further east with the GFS than the 00Z OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Larry Cosgrove is going with 2 feet for NYC Wasn't he calling for a mostly rain yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Guys....compare the NAM 00 hour sim radar to the current radar....the NAM's depiction is well west of the current....the GFS seems to match up much much betwe I'd agree, the problem though is not at all on initialization, the GFS error likely occurs at that 15-18 hour window when it convectively jumps the center...I think the GFS would otherwise be somewhat like the RGEM if it has not suffered some sort of issue with that southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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