Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow, the RGEM looks absolutely incredible. I'm really not worried about the NAM mixing to be honest...the RGEM runs 4DVAR and is showing a much colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Who ran into the problem? Which storm? Are you suggesting that the Plymouth site is not accurate? I'm saying we as in the philly forum were posting the plymouth skew ts and they didn't match up with the sounding text that was being shown. Not sure if it was a one time glitch or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 He's always very conservative with snow amounts till the last minute. Lee Goldberg is a very good met too and he's now thinking 12-18 with potential increase in amounts! Yes and I'll always remember his 3 to 6 the day before the Blizzard of 93 but some of his points do seem valid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sit back and think folks........this is an epic snowbomb for nyc, its isothermal and VVs are off the charts. The column is cooled rapidly any warm layers are easily overcome if the NAM is correct;............and lets not forget its the warmest of guidance. RIde the Euro all night long. Man, the negativity is brutal, think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is what I am worried about for LI. Yes I did say earlier that models were trending colder, and that we didn't need to worry about a changeover, but after examining the text output closly on the 18z nam and 00z nam the 00z nam is obs warmer, and would warrant concern for the coastline for a change to rain for an extended period of time. Maybe it's the nam being the nam, and put out a hiccup for this run, but if the 00z gfs comes in warmer I would go for a rain/snow mix for the mid morning period for the LI coast. The RGEM using its often 30-40 mile too warm on pytype in the NW sector on borderline systems would suggest the R/S line may setup right along Sandy Hook if you pushed things 30-40 miles or so, thats a very typical deal with storms here, snowing at JFK/EWR and raining Belmar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Over 2 inches of QPF for NYC on the RGEM. RGEM also stalls out the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM is vertically stacked? But RGEM is very pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Over 2 inches of QPF for NYC on the RGEM. RGEM also stalls out the low. can you send link with the loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On the NAM HR 15 , STARTS AS SOME LIGHT SNOW . BUT HR 18 - 21 -24 are lost almost 2 inches of liquid falls as rain as 850`s get as high as plus 2 However once to hr 27 .1.00 falls 850 are minus 3 , hr 30 .50 - falls 850`s are minus 10 , hr 33 .25-. fall 850`s are minus 15 hr 36 .10 - falls 850 are minus 10 BETWEEN HR 27 - 36 1.85 FALLS AS SNOW - RATIOS START AT 10 TO 1 AND GO TO 12 TO 1 .. THATS 20 INCHES AT THE PARK . ITS IN LINE WITH THE EURO , GOD FOR BID THIS MODEL IS A TICK OR TWO TOO WARM THEN HR 24 WHEN 850`S ARE AT 0 TO PLUS 1 AND 1 INCH FALLING AS RAIN ISN`T then its really game on for NYC . For now i will give up the front end because my reward comes on the back Euro is colder .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm saying we as in the philly forum were posting the plymouth skew ts and they didn't match up with the sounding text that was being shown. Not sure if it was a one time glitch or what. Why are we arguing over the NAM..there's too much precip..of course it's gonna be warmer..don't believe for a second of 5 to 6 inches of precip..never happen in the cold months..never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we ran into the same issue with the plymouth skew t, thought it was a bomb but looked at soundings and it was warmer. that sucks - i was so excited :-( But its the NAM and its the furthest west and warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really don't feel Craig Allen having a long blog about it staying rain longer it will lower amounts is anything earth shattering. And if it changes to snow earlier we get more. Risk you run in a rain to snow setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm saying we as in the philly forum were posting the plymouth skew ts and they didn't match up with the sounding text that was being shown. Not sure if it was a one time glitch or what. Then that's a big problem, isn't it? Did you address this issue with the folks at Plymouth State? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 can you send link with the loop? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Craig Allen has a good discussion on facebook explaining his concern that rain holds on for a longer period of time and that its mostly a 6 to 12" storm from the city westward Does that apply to those of us who are north and west of the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I kind of think back to the early nov storm where several models were warmer and showed more rain but it ultimately ended up being colder and gave us 6-8" with those further south getting near a foot. It very well may end up the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow, the RGEM looks absolutely incredible. I'm really not worried about the NAM mixing to be honest...the RGEM runs 4DVAR and is showing a much colder solution. lotta rain on the RGEM on the south shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lotta rain on the RGEM on the south shore... That's not rain, that's a mix. We still get a lot of snow on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where is Craig Allen's blog ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 As usual the euro will probably clean up the chaos and shut us all, myself included, up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lotta rain on the RGEM on the south shore... Once the winds turn NE and N, there really isn't much of a reason why the northern areas would have snow for like 5 hours longer than we would, IMO. Especially considering how strong the ageostrophic component would be in this setup, and how heavy the banding would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where is Craig Allen's blog ? from facebook: While the unabated love affair of some forecasters with the ecmwf model continues, maybe because it is faithful to the cause, I still have concerns and they are being borne out by watching more short range data continue to give mixed signals. Yes, I'm apparently getting flak for not bowing down to the 1 to 2 or 2-1/2 foot snow totals in the immediate NYC area but I am going to play devils advocate... on this to the very end. Don't get me wrong- THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG, AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING STORM. Will it really be historic? Biblical? Eastern New England for sure, maybe parts of CT and LI within the 880 listening area. But if our totals do wind up 6-12-18, banded sw to ne as I've mentioned on air, haven't we had storms like this before? If the 24-36" numbers verify, it indeed will not be forgotten. But here's why I've still capped my estimates:Meteorological but bear with me- a)Check 21z sref. We don't go below freezing til nearly 10pm. Then, big precip banding is offshore. 0z ruc- each run bringing 540 line a bit further inland through afternoon. So I think we do lose some wasted qpf thru the afternoon. c)1z RAP- all rain for the coast even as of 3pm. d) 0z nam shows 540 all the way back to nw NJ then follows I-84, even as of 7pm. (and then still a big snow thump at night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's not rain, that's a mix. We still get a lot of snow on the run. south shore of LI was rain for a good while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 south shore of LI was rain for a good while Yea, for like an hour. It's mostly a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I lost him referencing the RUC/RAP that far out, it has a raging west/warm bias beyond 8-10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM keeps the Norlun right over NYC for a while. That should be enough to get 10+ even if the first half is a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like 2' for basically all of Northern New Jerseg. This is that moment when you start to lose the ability to react because of how incredible the data your looking at truly is. Yes, and I actually truly expected a monster historic blizzard. But when you see these runs, it leaves you speechless and absolutely awestruck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yea, for like an hour. It's mostly a mix. please...stop. the south shore is rain for a long time on the RGEM using the precip type maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I lost him referencing the RUC/RAP that far out, it has a raging west/warm bias beyond 8-10 hours I was going to say the same thing. Why would he reference that so far out? He has an opinion rooted in evidence of course, but I just don't agree with his logic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Accuweather put out a special map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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