96blizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Kudos to Nick Gregory. Put up 12-16" but noted he was concerned about the recent run of a model (NAM)... Noted he will have to potentially raise.. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 absolutely NOT, NYC is 100PCT snow...all levels are under 0C the entire storm http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_knyc.txt look at the link i posted its a higher resolution and 3 hr timestamp they aren't snow all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4km nam has 5in qpf in 12 hrs from 24-36 all snow for NYC. Am I hallucinating??? This might be THE single best model solution I HAVE EVER SEEN Where do you get QPF from the hi-res? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's sleet to start in NYC but it changes to heavy snow. The highest temp in NYC is 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to point this out, but the city loses about 2 inches of qpf to stuff other then snow. Though its still a nice 12-16 on the nam for you guys. absolutely NOT, NYC is 100PCT snow...all levels are under 0C the entire storm http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_knyc.txt Ace ! I've never seen you so positive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thats wrong, ttn is not 3.21 as snow, they waste 2/3 of that on mixed just like nyc here is the sounding...what am I missing http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kttn.txt and the skew t, this mIGHT be sleet, but hr 27 is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thing about the NAM..come on 6 inches of precip?..that's the reason why it's so warm..that's tropical storm stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Knyc.txt look at your layers 90o and 875 nice warm nose in there would be sleet here is hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 here is the sounding...what am I missing http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kttn.txt and the skew t, this mIGHT be sleet, but hr 27 is snow look at the text data on knyc . im not trying to start a fight im just saying its not all snow http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Knyc.txt look at the 900-875mb temp from hr 18-27 its 1-3 above . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thing about the NAM..come on 6 inches of precip?..that's the reason why it's so warm..that's tropical storm stuff Which is why it's output is highly unlikely. This isn't August where we have a stalled TD over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have a feeling this storm ends up colder then modeled. It usually ends up being the case with these intense coastal storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Craig Allen has a good discussion on facebook explaining his concern that rain holds on for a longer period of time and that its mostly a 6 to 12" storm from the city westward Craig knows his stuff, its not his first time at the rodeo. I urge everyone to read his post and understand what could happen with this storm and not just about hugging everything the model says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 why are we arguing so much about the nam. Its likely too warm and has too much precip .I looked at soundings tombo and there is a discrepancy between that and the skew-t's as ace posted. Either way a compromise solution would be VERY snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 here is the sounding...what am I missing http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kttn.txt and the skew t, this mIGHT be sleet, but hr 27 is snow The NAM BUFKIT shows rain when the soundinsgs are more sleet like, the worst I could see if the NAM verified right on is maybe a lengthy PL period of PLSN from 20Z-00Z or so but rain is highly unlikely, as usual the models don't see that boundary layer cooling that occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Craig Allen has a good discussion on facebook explaining his concern that rain holds on for a longer period of time and that its mostly a 6 to 12" storm from the city westward that is concerning - he is one of thebest, if not the best in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 look at the text data on knyc . im not trying to start a fight im just saying its not all snow http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Knyc.txt look at the 900-875mb temp from hr 18-27 its 1-3 above . Yep. 18hr to 24hr, 850mb to 900mb is above 0C. 800mb to 825mb are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 look at the text data on knyc . im not trying to start a fight im just saying its not all snow http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Knyc.txt look at the 900-875mb temp from hr 18-27 its 1-3 above . why is that so diffrent than the soundings I posted??? How can they be different, so weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 look at the text data on knyc . im not trying to start a fight im just saying its not all snow http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Knyc.txt look at the 900-875mb temp from hr 18-27 its 1-3 above . Soundings are more accurate...why are you even in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have a feeling this storm ends up colder then modeled. It usually ends up being the case with these intense coastal storms! Yea I have been saying this for days, Climatology is on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z RGEM is colder than the previous run. NYC is mostly snow on this run but the mix is just south to start. It then turns to heavy snow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The RGEM is so close on ptype...here it is at 20Z...it can run a bit warm on these in this type of setup...the RGEM with the line that close continues to worry me this is snow much earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Craig knows his stuff, its not his first time at the rodeo. I urge everyone to read his post and understand what could happen with this storm and not just about hugging everything the model says He's always very conservative with snow amounts till the last minute. Lee Goldberg is a very good met too and he's now thinking 12-18 with potential increase in amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 why is that so diffrent than the soundings I posted??? How can they be different, so weird. we ran into the same issue with the plymouth skew t, thought it was a bomb but looked at soundings and it was warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 look at the link i posted its a higher resolution and 3 hr timestamp they aren't snow all the way This is what I am worried about for LI. Yes I did say earlier that models were trending colder, and that we didn't need to worry about a changeover, but after examining the text output closly on the 18z nam and 00z nam the 00z nam is obs warmer, and would warrant concern for the coastline for a change to rain for an extended period of time. Maybe it's the nam being the nam, and put out a hiccup for this run, but if the 00z gfs comes in warmer I would go for a rain/snow mix for the mid morning period for the LI coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think we should all take some time to read the mid atlantic forums to gain some humility in this moment of insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I certainly wouldn't overlook the warmer profiles just because someone doesn't like them. It's a definite concern if you want 20+ inches. The worst we can do is probably 8-12 just west of the city with 12-16 near and to the n and w of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The RGEM is so close on ptype...here it is at 20Z...it can run a bit warm on these in this type of setup...the RGEM with the line that close continues to worry me this is snow much earlier... 20z looks like the warmest it might get and that's snow for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we ran into the same issue with the plymouth skew t, thought it was a bomb but looked at soundings and it was warmer. Who ran into the problem? Which storm? Are you suggesting that the Plymouth site is not accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we ran into the same issue with the plymouth skew t, thought it was a bomb but looked at soundings and it was warmer. Yeah,there's definitely a pretty lengthy sleet period for LGA on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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