Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this is probably a 24+ event on the NAM for NYC. Lets see what the end result is but bufkit could show near 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 just remember almost 2" of that qpf over nyc falls when 850 is above 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:15 AM, Allsnow said: Lol. Yeah the 2 feet is over NYC and they get 12+ But it is the nam lol Hope you guys looked at soundings too. NYC will mix a bit before going over. It's NNJ that gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:17 AM, CoastalWx said: Lol. Yeah the 2 feet is over NYC and they get 12+ But it is the nam lol Hope you guys looked at soundings too. NYC will mix a bit before going over. It's NNJ that gets crushed. NW NJ actually....west Milford to high point gets obliterated. 30"+ I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:16 AM, Kaner587 said: of note guys, and i think this is pretty important, the 4km nam is colder than the 12km, by a decent amount. At 21 850's havent cleared the souther shore of LI while on the 12km they're transecting the bronx NAM has been the warm outlier for a while now. It probably has to do with how crazily it plays the convection and phase. I would definitely go with the Euro/GFS on temps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:16 AM, Allsnow said: 3-4 qpf over the whole area..take with grain of sakt Yep, I still think 15-20" is probably an honest bet for people who see all snow. 10-16 for those who mix or go through some rain tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This run gives Boston a foot or less if you look closely. I highly doubt that will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:17 AM, CoastalWx said: Hope you guys looked at soundings too. NYC will mix a bit before going over. It's NNJ that gets crushed. It's the nam. Doubt it works out that way. Meaning us being in the best banding and ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam close to moving the low directly over ACK. DEC 2010 except jucier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:17 AM, weatherweather said: just remember almost 2" of that qpf over nyc falls when 850 is above 0. Completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:18 AM, WintersGrasp said: This run gives Boston a foot or less if you look closely. I highly doubt that will happen Look more closely. It's the NAM and the farthest west. You guys should want an east shift, that stuff in NNJ would make it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00z 4km NAM is coming in pretty much the same lol Massive banding features over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Perfection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 HI Res NAM SIM at 24 HRS: The entire area gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:18 AM, WintersGrasp said: This run gives Boston a foot or less if you look closely. I highly doubt that will happen i looked closely. Pretty sure they're 1.75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know it's the nam and definitely over does these amounts but its shown this for three straight runs now, each better than before and we're well under 24 hrs now. It's going to be very interesting to see what the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:19 AM, CooL said: Completely wrong. I'd say .5-1" falls over NYC especially staten island and southern brooklyn as rain verbatim on this run. That's still 1-2 feet of snow though, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:19 AM, Allsnow said: It's the nam. Doubt it works out that way. Meaning us being in the best banding and ccb It could, but I'll put money on every other piece of guidance for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is snow....no two ways around it. Iso dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:18 AM, WintersGrasp said: This run gives Boston a foot or less if you look closely. I highly doubt that will happen The NAM is just clueless sometimes when it comes to these phased solutions-suffering from all sorts of convective feedback issues. I highly doubt it plays out the way it shows verbatim here. Even the higher resolution 4km NAM disagrees and keeps it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:19 AM, CooL said: Completely wrong. I cannot understand why this thread is attracting people like this. I'm all for true interpretations of model solutions given by mets and non-mets alike. It stuff like this that really pisses me off bc theres really no reason for it. Its wrong and has no place in this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If the GFS comes even close to this...I give up...we're down for close to 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4km NAM is about to pull 4-6" of QPF out onto LI and coastal NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I take the NAM ..forget about that its warmer.. Euro is colder every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 and HR 27 is even better with heavier banding over the entire metro area. heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the 4km nam is obscene for our area. No joke. Has 6hr precip totals at 27 of 5in on the jersey shore. Obv thats rain but north of it ridiculous amounts of snow I've never seen forecasted for this area before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:21 AM, WintersGrasp said: If the GFS comes even close to this...I give up...we're down for close to 2 feet It probably won't. This is theoretically where the NAM shines as has been noted (point-blank range, convective/mesoscale), so if I were to blend the two models, I'd almost weigh it more heavily toward the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 cut the qpf in half and you still get 16+ over nyc, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.