forkyfork Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Have at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My Thinking: 1-3"-Wilmington, DE and southwest 3-6"-Reading, Philly (closer to 6"), Atlantic City 6-12"-Doylestown, Allentown, Scranton, down SE to Ocean County, NJ 12-18"-East of the Delaware River down to Trenton, east to Monmouth County, NJ, due north through eastern NY, including all of N NJ, NYC area, all of SE NY except areas bordering CT 18-24"+-Much of Long Island, except perhaps Twin Forks, all of CT and on NE from there. Local spots to 30" where banding sits around. Shots in the dark at individual totals: Baltimore/DC-1 or 2" Philly-5" Allentown-10" Trenton-12" Atlantic City-6" Newark-17" White Plains-18" NYC/Central Park-16" (Zookeeper always tough to guess) JFK-16" (for some reason they usually measure low) Islip-20" Upton-22" Bridgeport-19" Hartford-20" (CT River shadowing can be a pain there) Providence-22" Montauk-13" Worcester-29" Boston-25" Highest total: Norwood, MA-32" I don't think rain or sleet mixing will be a huge deal for most. If you miss out on a few inches through mixing, you can make up for it in an hour by being lucky with a convective band later at night. Everyone should have a couple or few inches by early afternoon, but I do think though that the south shore has to deal with the pings or even drops for a few hours in the afternoon, perhaps even the city. Everyone should be snow by dark and then pound away until perhaps after dawn Sat. Some snow bands in this setup and extreme dynamic environment can approach 3-4"/hour, so if anything I may be underdone in some areas. Ratios will also become more and more helpful as the night goes on and the column cools rapidly. Many of us could approach 15-1 as the heaviest bands pivot through. Get ready for one insane day and night tomorrow, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The storm looks to be in a later stage of development and track than forecasted, when do you guys think snow starts to hit? I think maybe 4 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The lines for gas around here are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 FWIW ABC Lee Goldberg has upped amounts even more...has nyc in the 12-18" range now from 6-12" before. And has CT northeastward getting 18-24+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The lines for gas around here are insane. Yep, same here. Got gas before. 20 minute wait.Probably longer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 HRRR's latest 15 hour forecast valid at 13Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People think this is Sandy. Did they all forget that after every major blizzard there was never a shortage of gas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 FWIW ABC Lee Goldberg has upped amounts even more...has nyc in the 12-18" range now from 6-12" before. And has CT northeastward getting 18-24+ damn I missed it.... what does he have for the lower Hudson valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I better not lose power with this storm. Ever since Sandy, my power hasn't been the same. I almost lost power with the thunderstorms last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 damn I missed it.... what does he have for the lower Hudson valley? The same 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREFs first up anybody got the goods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The same 12-18. What did he have for Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREFs are cold and wet. 1.75+ ENJ east and northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 HRRR's latest 15 hour forecast valid at 13Z... Is that much east from it's last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What did he have for Long Island? 12-18 also. Here's Channel 7's map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z SREF is still great. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_030_mslp.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_033_mslp.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_036_precip_p24.gif 2 inches + of QPF. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If some of you guys would like to go to the chat and share models and talk about the storm there are a couple of us there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12-18 also. Here's Channel 7's map: thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I better not lose power with this storm. Ever since Sandy, my power hasn't been the same. I almost lost power with the thunderstorms last week. I live in and work in park slope brooklyn I work for con Edison i am a splicer so i know this area is underground the only time you might see any outages with storms like these are to over head powerlines, but when the snow starts to melt you will see smoking manholes because the salt from the slat trucks brakes down the insulation of the unground cables thats when people with undground service can see a interuption in service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs kinda look to me like they went east a bit and not as amped up. I know I know, still good....but towards the lower end of what everyone is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs kinda look to me like they went east a bit and not as amped up. I know I know, still good....but towards the lower end of what everyone is thinking. Why must you downplay? 1.75-2" is not the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs kinda look to me like they went east a bit and not as amped up. I know I know, still good....but towards the lower end of what everyone is thinking. in term of precip its exactly the same maybe slightly more qpf than 15z. North and east it definitely cut down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Why must you downplay? 1.75-2" is not the lower end. agreed... Him and dosh all day downplaying everything and honestly not even providing sound meteorologic analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs kinda look to me like they went east a bit and not as amped up. I know I know, still good....but towards the lower end of what everyone is thinking. SREF actually went wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Srefs kinda look to me like they went east a bit and not as amped up. I know I know, still good....but towards the lower end of what everyone is thinking. My expectation are this is gonna be a slightly east event of what 12/19/09 was maybe by 30 miles...that pretty much puts NYC metro in amounts around 7-10 inches and the amounts of 12-14+ mainly Suffolk county. We'll see, sometimes these CCBs are a bit west of where they are modeled but I think that there will be some modestly annoyed folk in here tomorrow night as Islip is being plastered and LGA/JFK are doing well but not necessarily going 3 inches an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I have a question about the srefs, perhaps someone has an answer. Why do the qpf contours not match the qpf colors? Like the latest sref has nyc on the 2 inch line but the color is only that if 1-1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My expectation are this is gonna be a slightly east event of what 12/19/09 was maybe by 30 miles...that pretty much puts NYC metro in amounts around 7-10 inches and the amounts of 12-14+ mainly Suffolk county. We'll see, sometimes these CCBs are a bit west of where they are modeled but I think that there will be some modestly annoyed folk in here tomorrow night as Islip is being plastered and LGA/JFK are doing well but not necessarily going 3 inches an hour. if thats the case a lot of forecasts are going to bust. I see what you're saying I just dont see how that happens based on the info we have right now. It is obviously possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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