weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ratios are not determined by temperatures.....considering wind speed, they won't be much more than 10:1 20 would be epic. I expect that or more in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 nam clown maps will snow 30-50" for ny/ct state border best run yet for western ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a good hit for this area verbatim. Ratios would definitely help us out and with 1.75-2" of QPF that's a solid 20-25" storm and maybe a little more for some spots if the NAM has its way. The 700 mb deformation signal is very strong out this way, which should lead to a nice powder death band. Not sure I buy the really early phase on this run that clobbers NJ with > 4" of QPF as I think it may be a bit overdone. I'm thinking something in between the NAM and GFS will be closer to reality. GFS may be a bit too progressive, NAM a bit too amped. And what do you get? Save a horse ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i actually think some of that run is "real" and some of that is the nam's way of trending toward everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm going with 16" here just east of Manchester. Have fun everyone, lots of folks are gonna get blitzed tomorrow night! Can't wait to post totals and see how my foreguess goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 model output http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Ktan.txt Oops just under. Maybe over 3" near me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hi-Res NAM is putting down 24 - 30+ inches across much of New England by hour 36. With some big splotches of 36+ in spots by hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Actually that's a good point regarding the winds and ratios...didn't even think of that. What I like about my swamp is that it's a vertual wind dead zone, so maybe I can better 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A perfect run for sw ct. This is the run that we see in our dreams, probably 3'+! :snowing: Literally every single run today on every single model has been amazing... Going to bed, tomorrow is going to be a long and FUN day! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 some of those Nam maps are with snow still falling I think...21UC Sat would have snow still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What I like about my swamp is that it's a vertual wind dead zone, so maybe I can better 10:1 Bro don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What I like about my swamp is that it's a vertual wind dead zone, so maybe I can better 10:1 In these high QPF scenarios a difference of 12:1 and 10:1 could make a decent difference. Say 2'' of QPF...that's a difference of 24'' vs. 20''! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Man that would be awesome, let's see how it plays out. Tough to keep the fire pit going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 4km NAM shows 8 inches of QPF just SW of here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thunder-snow will probably be most frequent around 06z (0100h Sat) in the BOS-ORH-PVD-HFD-ISP regions. The deformation zone will be similar and I am down for 30-40 inch snowfall totals in much of the region, feel that this storm has near-perfect dynamics to produce maximum possible totals. Mixing issues southeast of a BOS-PVD-Groton CT -ISP line otherwise 30 inches snow could extend to Cape and islands (8-15 inches for them, mostly after low passes benchmark). What's the state (MA, CT, RI, NH, ME) record for storm snowfalls? Some of those could be threatened. Some measurements may of course become suspect due to drifting but would not be surprised if 30-35 inch NWS obs equate to 45-50 inch max co-op obs, not totally familiar with sweet spots there but would guess near Framingham? Or into higher parts of northeast CT. Well the test of the 6 hr measurement will be interesting. 78 did not have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no it doesn't thank you....at a rest stop on my way home from logan. near Ray. Hi Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd rather it not even snow. I forget...Boxing Day have 20-30" region wide? Why the negative posts over widespread 2-3"+ QPF. You guys are sick. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at the winds at H5 and there is the reason for a death band near NYC. Winds are converging..AKA frontogenesis. Now where does that set up for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If someone could do me a favor and give the me the new Nam qpf total for Maine?? can't locate it. Thanks,Craig http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=00&fhour=48¶meter=PCPIN&level=48&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How did Falmouth, MA achieve 6"/hr in 2005? Winds suddenly diminished? It's a moot point if you are right under a band... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bro don't worry We're quibbling between 18-22 vs 24-32. Someone will get the top end....could be you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Boy we sure would have one heck of a storm coming with all that moisture coming up from the Southeast.........even without the energy from the Midwest!!! Scary to think that this image (while sexy) is only a 6 compared to what it will look like in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Tough to keep the fire pit going!We will see about that. Probably be constantly shoveling so gonna need a warmup spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I forget...Boxing Day have 20-30" region wide? Why the negative posts over widespread 2-3"+ QPF. You guys are sick. " lol... no... but Boxing Day just sucked in my backyard. I had an epic meltdown on the board. This storm is not like that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I forget...Boxing Day have 20-30" region wide? Why the negative posts over widespread 2-3"+ QPF. You guys are sick. " It sucked....we had like 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at the winds at H5 and there is the reason for a death band near NYC. Winds are converging..AKA frontogenesis. Now where does that set up for real? Stamford to litch cnty to pete to w of mpm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well I can say I've been pleasantly surprised with the radar presentation and with current obs here in Roanoke. Moved about two years back from NW CT and I am rooting for you guys very jealous haha. Anyhow temp dropped from 40 at 7 down to 33 and it's currently moderate snow falling. Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF mean looks a lot more reasonable than the NAM. I think that would make for a good forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oops just under. Maybe over 3" near me? it's negligible. pym is 0.03" more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thank you....at a rest stop on my way home from work logan. near Ray. Hi Ray!find any burly men? LOL, dude you are going to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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