ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You're not at UConn for the storm? I had to go home to get an MRI and I just decided to stay. I think we see a second max out this way up into the berks anyway. A few people agreed with me so I made the decision to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thunder-snow will probably be most frequent around 06z (0100h Sat) in the BOS-ORH-PVD-HFD-ISP regions. The deformation zone will be similar and I am down for 30-40 inch snowfall totals in much of the region, feel that this storm has near-perfect dynamics to produce maximum possible totals. Mixing issues southeast of a BOS-PVD-Groton CT -ISP line otherwise 30 inches snow could extend to Cape and islands (8-15 inches for them, mostly after low passes benchmark). What's the state (MA, CT, RI, NH, ME) record for storm snowfalls? Some of those could be threatened. Some measurements may of course become suspect due to drifting but would not be surprised if 30-35 inch NWS obs equate to 45-50 inch max co-op obs, not totally familiar with sweet spots there but would guess near Framingham? Or into higher parts of northeast CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Might be a hair uner 3? Have KBED? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If Fairfield County jackpots... and Boston gets like 12" or 14"... Scooter may quit weather for life. LOL--you know what we're dealing with when someone could be bummed about 14 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If Fairfield County jackpots... and Boston gets like 12" or 14"... Scooter may quit weather for life. I do not think that is the case, the NAM is spot on with 12z euro totals down here, the euro had 2.5+ just what the nam shows here............king/eta............take it to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00z NAM says Boxing Day redux lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm not giving nam credit till gfs follows suit I remember a time when, in this time frame, we'd toss the GFS and go with the ETA (forerunner to the NAM) if they were not in agreement! My, have things changed... I miss the ETA, a model we could actually use! Sometimes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Basically 2.5 bos/pvd and 3.0 NYC. You'd think it was giving flurries you idiots. Pretty insistent on a little max in PYM county, but no doubt with some taint. Pretty epic hit, now maybe becoming nearly an I95 paralyzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If someone could do me a favor and give the me the new Nam qpf total for Maine?? can't locate it. Thanks,Craig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Have KBED? also I don't think ratios are 10:1.. gets pretty cold up our way when the system gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Have KBED? Maybe like 2.3? BOS is like 2.6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If Fairfield County jackpots... and Boston gets like 12" or 14"... Scooter may quit weather for life. LOL. It's a pretty epic event for the entire NE 1/3 of the country. the scale keeps increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just realized nam prints 4-5 qpf jersey... screams toss. No matter the locale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Kevin Lemanowicz @klemanowicz The time has come to raise the snow forecast. I'm doing it. @sarahwroblewski agrees. see it at 10 on @fox25news #foxblizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 also I don't think ratios are 10:1.. gets pretty cold up our way when the system gets cranking. Ratios are not determined by temperatures.....considering wind speed, they won't be much more than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 dendrites will be ripped to shreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Actually that's a good point regarding the winds and ratios...didn't even think of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol ok i did.. you know what i meant though right?? there are several huge bands.. but the biggest one set up over new jersey through hudson valley..Man that would be awesome, let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Over 3" qpf at KTAN. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If Fairfield County jackpots... and Boston gets like 12" or 14"... Scooter may quit weather for life. He can take up plowing in SWCT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LOL. It's a pretty epic event for the entire NE 1/3 of the country. the scale keeps increasing.Looks like taint get to maybe just nw of the canal. What's your take? You know the area way better than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah--I'm okay with it. Not as good as you for sure, but 1.75"+ with at least reasonable ratios puts me at 18" for a starting point. Still a good hit for this area verbatim. Ratios would definitely help us out and with 1.75-2" of QPF that's a solid 20-25" storm and maybe a little more for some spots if the NAM has its way. The 700 mb deformation signal is very strong out this way, which should lead to a nice powder death band. Not sure I buy the really early phase on this run that clobbers NJ with > 4" of QPF as I think it may be a bit overdone. I'm thinking something in between the NAM and GFS will be closer to reality. GFS may be a bit too progressive, NAM a bit too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 where? Low looks turn from NE to SE for a bit and then scoot off east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no no no uggghhhhno it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Over 3" qpf at KTAN. Damn. model output http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Ktan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its a good tool...esp when it has support from other mesos like the RGEM and SREF...but those models are a bit east which does lend some support to the notion that this is another over-amped NAM solution....we saw it at 12z, then it ticked back SE at 18z, now back NW at 00z....we'll see oscillations depending on how it is handling the convection...but you'd like to see some other mesos get on board to jump on the NAM train....so I'm not ready quite yet to go this amped. Let alone accept, what is that... Atlantic City? as the qpf max! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no it doesn't I like where H5 begins to close off and eventually close off on the NAM...not too far south, virtually in a perfect position for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol.nam gives me 40 plus inches haha. what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How did Falmouth, MA achieve 6"/hr in 2005? Winds suddenly diminished? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00z NAM says Boxing Day redux lol I'd rather it not even snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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