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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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Got to hand it to the NAM, it's going to verify strongest of any model, it's moved up a notch on my respect level. And of course the EURO has regained it's throne, it had this 48 hours before anything else.

 

-skisheep

 

Euro was still too far west for most runs. 12z yesterday and 12z today runs both gave >2" qpf to NYC... that will be too high. 

 

NAM was even farther west on many runs, but has no run-run consistency. One recent run was giving 3" qpf to NYC, 4" qpf to NJ. 

 

 

IMO SREFs and the EURO did best.

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It was way too wet here though until it finally backed off today, but even at 12z it had 1.1" here.

With 6 inches of powdery snow now and the end in sight...the final qpf is probably going to be .6" maybe.

Got to hand it to the NAM, it's going to verify strongest of any model, it's moved up a notch on my respect level. And of course the EURO has regained it's throne, it had this 48 hours before anything else.

-skisheep

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Oh gosh, good question. I am not a local expert on the terrain, nor do I have a well defined climatology in my head like ORH and many others here regarding SNE. I just love tracking these. That said, I am impressed with what I am seeing thus far this morning. Only negative is it may be deepening too rapidly and stalling just a tad as convection wraps ahead of the upper level PV anomaly. That may tend to slow this down a tad. The heavy dump comes as convective cells initiating along the occlusion/trough axis and wrap into the WCB/deform band. Unfortunately that is over water. The positive is the stretching deformation/upper level frontogenesis that will occur later over SNE may be epic, and the NAM may not be too far off once the phase completes. In fact, the NAM is simulating one of the most hellacious episodes of upper level frontogenesis I have ever seen...so much so it is actually forming upper level PV as large amounts of LH is released aloft above the front. Can't say I have ever even seen such a thing. NAM is too wet though, way too wet. Not realistic to have the same precip over SNE as there currently is over the Gulf Stream. Even with dendritic growth, hard to survive in high ratios when 70 MPH northeasterly winds are ripping them apart. There is an outside shot at 30" if both the decaying convective comma head and then the upper level frontal band manage to stall over the same region similar to the NAM depiction. And believe it or not, there is reason to believe the NAM is not completely off its rocker like most think. But the stars need to align. I am definitely not afraid of an east track at this point, though.

Should have posted an image to depict this. Awesome to see happening. I have witnessed something I have never seen before....or perhaps just never looked.

Dynamic tropopause on top left. Incredible northern stream phase interaction with the warm front. A lot of it is due to the odd upper level interactions...just don't see a setup like this very often. Note the rapidly forming PV strip over New England. And apparently I should have predicted 40+ inches.

 

 

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No offense to anyone but I will bet anyone right now it's not snowing out my way (in an accumulating fashion) past 10 am tomorrow. Maybe we get to 14 inches here but this is going to be a disappointment. Call me a weenie........whatever you want but this storm is for 128 east and south for Mass.

Just quit following the snow. 10 buns for this awful awful post.

 

:weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:

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Yeah..the stall kind of failed.  It slows for a bit, then shifts east.  But the Euro idea of a multi-hour stall south of the cape was wrong.  Good because this is laying waste to the regions power grid as is.

 

 

Yeah, what we saw all at once was a shift aloft.  8h you had a warm pocket check it out.  When that got obliterated the snow didn't go anywhere we just lost the bright banding etc/sleet

What are you talking about, it's been basically stalled for hours and hours?

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Why are you posting....if things are so awful?

Everyone has a viewpoint, they're all valid.

I had forecasts for 18-24 or 24+ here for most of the day. Not happening I don't think, or even close. I think I'm still in the 14-18/18-24. NBD, it happens.

A day ago this looked like it might last into Sunday morning when models had it stalling. It was at that point truly historic. It's out of here mid to late morning, not quite even a 24 hour storm. When we lost the stall we lost the epic aside of those fortunate enough to get into those crazy bands.

I think it stalled now
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I think it stalled now

Yeah for down here too late. You can see the banding struggles because the winds aren't ideal for OES which could have allowed this to beat 05 here. Also note the heavier band is setting up just off the cape.

Most impressive storm I've seen for wind damage here. We had our 05 blizzard glad others got into it this time. Met expectations on snow, exceeded on everything else. I bet there are people with no power for a week down here

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What are you talking about, it's been basically stalled for hours and hours?

150-200 miles ne of where it was modeled for a few days. Have you looked at the radar or the models from a day of so ago that had it snowing into early Sunday here?

The stall was a fail for down here it happened later than it appeared for a day or two leading up. That's good for you, not so much for here. Is it okay to talk about this part of the region or should we just relate everything to your yard? Lol

Portland broke their record because it stalled much further ne than thought a few days ago or even earlier yesterday. That's why their total snow predictions kept going up and up. Geez.

Might add if it had been fortunate enough to occur where the euro had it a day or so ago boston would still be getting drilled right now. Look at that band east of the cape 100 miles. That'd been over your head and those. 50" snow maps we all saw would have verified.

Spectacular historic storm. If the stall happened 150 miles further sw it would have been possible to see those 30-50" totals some of the models were spitting out. Happened just a little too far ne but that spread the wealth into Maine. But the 18-24 or 24+ totals down this way not so much.

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Just quit following the snow. 10 buns for this awful awful post.

 

:weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:

 

Ok, I was off, stopped snowing at 9:45. I said a bust for my area. I was hoping for a stall and a long duration event, didn't happen, that's all. I know Conn got crushed and had some unbelievable snow rates per hour. I know places like where my brother lives in Mansfield were hit hard (a lot of heavy wet snow before it got fluffy). Good for Blizz in Tolland and Fella etc. Well overdue! For this area, this wasn't even a top 15 event for the 20 years I've lived out in Littleton to Pepperell area. The snow is super light, about 18 inches.  I was all shoveled out in no time. AND SORRY but there was no STALL. This was about a 16 hour event. For those that weren't around it snowed for 36 hours straight  in 78. That is a stall.

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Ok, I was off, stopped snowing at 9:45. I said a bust for my area. I was hoping for a stall and a long duration event, didn't happen, that's all. I know Conn got crushed and had some unbelievable snow rates per hour. I know places like where my brother lives in Mansfield were hit hard (a lot of heavy wet snow before it got fluffy). Good for Blizz in Tolland and Fella etc. Well overdue! For this area, this wasn't even a top 15 event for the 20 years I've lived out in Littleton to Pepperell area. The snow is super light, about 18 inches.  I was all shoveled out in no time. AND SORRY but there was no STALL. This was about a 16 hour event. For those that weren't around it snowed for 36 hours straight  in 78. That is a stall.

I don't know dude..It's been snowing here for ~30 hours

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I don't know dude..It's been snowing here for ~30 hours
I'm on my 30th straight hour of snow...lol. Some people are never happy. 18"...boohoo.

This was an epic storm for the region. Once again, banding leads the way. Lots of 2-3ft reports where that deformation band set up longest.

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This one was worse than 05 for the Boston area I would say. Close to the same amounts of snow, but the bottom 10 inches of snow here are like cement with the temp being around 31-32 for the first part of the storm. In 05 it was all powder. The only area that probably did better in 05 was probably the North Shore up by Salem. I believe they had 3 feet in that storm.

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agreed

This morning was similar to 05 here. We are still getting croaked with OES bands. I wish it was hitting all of you but not to be. If someone measures 2 feet plus around here it would not be a bad measurement. When we get the ok to drive I'm going to do some measuring towards the white cliff area and west.

This has to be 2-3" per hour since this morning. First part stunk aside of the wind. This part was good

Looking at the power grid. Places like mattspoiset ..there are only 32 homes in the entire town WITH power out of over 3000. Plymouth, Marion, wareham, Duxbury are all over 90%. That's insane. And it isn't a main line down either, it's lines all over. Going to be a tedious fix. Will take I bet a week or more for some.

Epic little back band. Little bend in the windfield giving us one last gasp.

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