CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But IF the NAM is to have any use whatsoever, isnt it in this time frame? If not now, when? It has virtually no use... but yeah it's getting within the time frame where you can actually look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol all relative.. I mean "heaviest qpf" we all see heavy snow.. but the heaviest band on this nam is west of us.. lol we still get 30"+ but areas just west get 4-5" qpf lol just crazy.. im not complaining.. i love our spot.. I decided to stay in NW CT for this and not go back east. I think we're good man, I'm excited to see your obs and how they stack up with mine over then next 40 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I toss that without more support. I mean nyc peeps your pretty warm too you should be rooting a little east Tough though Jay if it's right or close to right, yikes. High stakes. Really tough forecast. Lots of arguments have been made that it should be one of the better models in this situation. It's done it before if I recall...wasn't it well left of guidance in one of the SW CT snow bombs a few years ago and was right? It's tougher to see on the 3 hour maps, if you check out one of the hourly sites you can see it runs the low right on the eastern flank of the convection that fires. IS that feedback or is that the non-hydro model doing what it should be doing? Anyway, good luck to the mets issuing forecasts for this one. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's the NAM... so divide by 2. I know that's usually a great rule to follow but this might be a rare case where you really don't have to do that. Sure you trim it back a little bit but I would think we see anywhere from 1.5-2'' of QPF, especially if the slower and more stalled solution verifies. if we get close to 15:1 ratios (for an average) during the main part of this storm that would yield to widespread historic totals here. I just can't believe the NAM has upped QPF in some spots...perhaps convective feedback could be leading to it but typically we see the NAM back off at this stage and that isn't happening. If the GFS/Euro are right around 2'' that will be quite significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm not giving nam credit till gfs follows suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The RPM model has actually been pretty good this season......I remember that it nailed the event earlier in the season when it rained on eastern MA. Almost 4' in KLWM LOL I'm thinking at least 20" here. Most? 35-37"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But IF the NAM is to have any use whatsoever, isnt it in this time frame? If not now, when? Its a good tool...esp when it has support from other mesos like the RGEM and SREF...but those models are a bit east which does lend some support to the notion that this is another over-amped NAM solution....we saw it at 12z, then it ticked back SE at 18z, now back NW at 00z....we'll see oscillations depending on how it is handling the convection...but you'd like to see some other mesos get on board to jump on the NAM train....so I'm not ready quite yet to go this amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not being rude but you might want to delete that post about the heavy snow staying out of NE lol ok i did.. you know what i meant though right?? there are several huge bands.. but the biggest one set up over new jersey through hudson valley.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I decided to stay in NW CT for this and not go back east. I think we're good man, I'm excited to see your obs and how they stack up with mine over then next 40 hours You're not at UConn for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 H30 crush job. Holy fook i have no problem with the nam imby. still manages to drop 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I decided to stay in NW CT for this and not go back east. I think we're good man, I'm excited to see your obs and how they stack up with mine over then next 40 hours i will be in seymour til it starts to get bad.. then i have to go to the news station in norwalk for live coverage.. i will be back sometime saturday.. so i will count on you and grinch for obs in western ct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i have no problem with the nam imby. still manages to drop 2-3" Your area is in a spot where it really doesn't matter what this low does...you are going to get near the max almost every time because you are close to the 900mb nuclear forcing. If somehow it went well SE, then you'd get the 700mb deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its a good tool...esp when it has support from other mesos like the RGEM and SREF...but those models are a bit east which does lend some support to the notion that this is another over-amped NAM solution....we saw it at 12z, then it ticked back SE at 18z, now back NW at 00z....we'll see oscillations depending on how it is handling the convection...but you'd like to see some other mesos get on board to jump on the NAM train....so I'm not ready quite yet to go this amped. I hate the way it's deepening the mid levels faster now......"only" 2" up this way....shades of Boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i have no problem with the nam imby. still manages to drop 2-3" Look close to 3" I think. 2.5+ by 15z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm thinking at least 20" here. Most? 35-37"? I think we get 2 feet, maybe a little more. With the wind it's going to be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm thinking at least 20" here. Most? 35-37"? 15-30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 total qpf of 3" for all of western ct.. you can see how ratios increase as cold air aloft is pulled down by heavy rates across southwestern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM continues to be steadfast with the track of the 700mb low...would see a nasty deformation band from NNJ to NYC through much of CT and into RI/central/eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i will be in seymour til it starts to get bad.. then i have to go to the news station in norwalk for live coverage.. i will be back sometime saturday.. so i will count on you and grinch for obs in western ct.. No problem buddy! Are you a tv met for news 12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Qpf at logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam shows a 9 hr stall at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 These are just incredible numbers down here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No problem buddy! Are you a tv met for news 12? yes I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Basically 2.5 bos/pvd and 3.0 NYC. You'd think it was giving flurries you idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is a thing of beauty and looks even better than past runs! Awesome VV's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Qpf at logan? Might be a hair uner 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its a good tool...esp when it has support from other mesos like the RGEM and SREF...but those models are a bit east which does lend some support to the notion that this is another over-amped NAM solution....we saw it at 12z, then it ticked back SE at 18z, now back NW at 00z....we'll see oscillations depending on how it is handling the convection...but you'd like to see some other mesos get on board to jump on the NAM train....so I'm not ready quite yet to go this amped. Will....what other models will you look to over the next few hours for "confirmation" of the NAM? I'm just curious. The 1 hour plotted track of the NAM is interesting for sure. Clearly it's tracking convection off the coast for several hours. Is that right who knows...but just based on what everyone has been saying about the benefits of the non-hydrostatic models and it's persistence it does make me wonder. I do recall it doing this during the snow bombs of a few years ago and being right...IE tucking further left than consensus. More in relation to NJ and DE/NYC just out of interest. What a tough forecast for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i have no problem with the nam imby. still manages to drop 2-3" Yeah--I'm okay with it. Not as good as you for sure, but 1.75"+ with at least reasonable ratios puts me at 18" for a starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam shows a 9 hr stall at least! where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If Fairfield County jackpots... and Boston gets like 12" or 14"... Scooter may quit weather for life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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