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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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I think you'll get into great banding IMHO.

 

Are you all stocked up on your beer and huggies?  Enjoy it--I'm not sure you can say it was worth the wait, but having waited as long as you have, this is one helluva way to end your drought!

 

What's your take on BOX's comment about higiher totals on the east slope?  While weenie hopes spring eternal, I'm not really buying the 18-24".

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Currently up to about 8 inches.. (neighbor measured 10 inches but seems a tad bit high..) Under probably some of the heaviest snow i've seen in years.. been ripping for past hour.. (south-central CT, just east of new haven)

 

Yeah it looks like you and Suffolk County are getting trounced!!!  Congrats.

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This looks reasonable too.  I think parts of SE MA/Cape end up between the precip moving with the low and the precip spinning NW later.  May be a sucker zone down this way.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=08+Feb+2013+-+21Z

 

I feel pretty confident in at least 9" here, not sure about how much more than that.  We'll see.

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What keeps killing those radar bands when they try to come onshore on the south coast of MA and RI?

?

 

I think that's just flakes going from wet snow on the coast to fluffier as they encounter colder air inland. Wet snow creates a heavier signature on the radar. Doesn't necessarily mean higher inch-per-hour rates. 

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A couple of times this year I've found the dev HRRR to be a bit better.   Here's the last full one from 19z.  This looks reasonable. Notice it's more impressive than the regular Primary HRRR

How does this work, in the sense that I have some severe compaction here.  Is this more a QPF, or does it translate into actual inches of snow based on ratio?  Not sure it does that.

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This really looks like it could pass just to the SE of the Cape which would allow for Kevin and eastern CT to get into the deform band and probably have it pivot over them...would even see it as far west as BDL but probably wouldn't pivot here.

700mb_sf.gif?1360367856161

Yeah I think you guys get in on it. Pivot looks like its setting up Central/ eastern Ct to west of Orh
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This really looks like it could pass just to the SE of the Cape which would allow for Kevin and eastern CT to get into the deform band and probably have it pivot over them...would even see it as far west as BDL but probably wouldn't pivot here.  

 

700mb_sf.gif?1360367856161

 

 

You can see the deformation already taking shape. You have a col somewhere around NYC, and western CT up through western MA and central NH/ME are seeing that convergent flow.

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