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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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GFS is such a POS it's going to be wrong even at hr 6. It finally gets the CCB into E MA but it will bust everywher else. Tossed. Seems obvious to me based on radar that the NAM/Euro have a much better handle on this.

 

The NAM would have had well over 1" melted QPF in CT in 2 hours.  In a good sized portion of CT too.

 

I wouldn't say the NAM is doing well, JMHO.

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The NAM would have had well over 1" melted QPF in CT in 2 hours.  In a good sized portion of CT too.

 

I wouldn't say the NAM is doing well, JMHO.

Ok you can live by the RGEM and GFS agreeing, I'll look at the OKXradar and see that CT is about to get absolutely crushed, and the QPF will be greater than the 0.25" to 0.5" that the GFS spits out.

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We hope and pray and bang silly. That model is just pure porn.

It's probably overdone with hourly qpf values as usual, but I think the progged radar presentation will be close to reality. Maybe a little too far west in 6 hours but not much. It just seems to be handling the situation really well at the moment.

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It's time weenies..it's time...

 

 

mcd0124.gif

      MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0351 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND AND SRN NY...FAR NERN   NJ      CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW       VALID 082151Z - 090145Z      SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS   EVENING ...WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR OVER SRN NY/NERN NJ...TO   2-3 INCHES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING   WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR   THE COAST.      DISCUSSION...SFC OBS FROM 21Z CONTINUE TO REFLECT A RAPIDLY   DEEPENING OFFSHORE CYCLONE...WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4 MB/HR   OBSERVED. RADAR REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC SHOWS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES   ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS RI/SRN   MA/SRN CT. HOWEVER...SOME BRIGHT-BAND ENHANCEMENT MAY BE OCCURRING   AS MIXED P-TYPE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS PREDOMINANT ACROSS LONG   ISLAND...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 33-35 F.   INITIALLY...NEAR- OR ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPRESS RATES   IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION   INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS N-NE...A CHANGEOVER TO   PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS ACROSS MOST   OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.      SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INCREASING IN CONCERT WITH INTENSE ISENTROPIC   LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE.   ADDITIONALLY...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH /LOCATED OVER THE   UPPER OH VALLEY PER 2130Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO PHASE   WITH THE OFFSHORE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE   COMBINATION OF STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE   WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED   COLUMN WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER LOCATED BENEATH THE DENDRITIC   GROWTH ZONE. THESE FACTORS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTREMELY HIGH   SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW   ENGLAND...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AS SUPPORTED BY THE   RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.      ..ROGERS.. 02/08/2013
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Ok you can live by the RGEM and GFS agreeing, I'll look at the OKXradar and see that CT is about to get absolutely crushed, and the QPF will be greater than the 0.25" to 0.5" that the GFS spits out.

 

The GFS doesn't have less than .75 anywhere in SNE aside of the tiniest of slivers.  It's pretty much 1 to 1.5" statewide out that way added to the .1 to .2 it put out pre 18z, it's 1.1 to about 1.7 state wide

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_precip_p24.gif

 

It's quite possibly underdone, but I'm also pretty sure nobody has seen the NAM type totals in CT yet.

I don't think this http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_p06&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_precip_p06.gif

 

Looks all that much like this, but we'll see what the next two hours do.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=40.287907,-75.184937,43.157109,-70.62561&density=1&precip=1&value=P03I

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