RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS should be trashed...terrible. Is it that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS smokes ern/se ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS smokes ern/se ma. Still hasn't quite caught on..Maybe by 00z after all of us are in 5 inch per hour snows..then it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is such a POS it's going to be wrong even at hr 6. It finally gets the CCB into E MA but it will bust everywher else. Tossed. Seems obvious to me based on radar that the NAM/Euro have a much better handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS smokes ern/se ma. Yeah its finally catching on but still crap compared to NAM/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Temps are marginal along the coast right now http://www.daculaweather.com/current/misc/google-maps-radar/4_google_radar.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Dropped a degree here to 31. Has been snow all day- never changed. Martha's Vineyard also stayed all snow. Radar still showing us as rain here, but not the case. Heavy snow. Has to be at least 2"/hr now, even as wet as it is. All heading north towards Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS should be trashed...terrible. Why? I don't think it looks much different than what the RGEM is doing which has been very good most of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is such a POS it's going to be wrong even at hr 6. It finally gets the CCB into E MA but it will bust everywher else. Tossed. Seems obvious to me based on radar that the NAM/Euro have a much better handle on this. The NAM would have had well over 1" melted QPF in CT in 2 hours. In a good sized portion of CT too. I wouldn't say the NAM is doing well, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS smokes ern/se ma. awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 awt RGEM and GFS got better, I like the low tuck better this run for your/my area Phil Jerry etc, Ray. Later on into Saturday we should all be under that north to south band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Tell you one thing. I would make love to the 18z hi res nam. The composite reflectivity is a thing of beauty. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wind from the NNW at some of the wunderground stations N of here. With wind coming straight down the Valley here. SN bordering on SN+ at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One more tickle west at 00z and Gfs will have caught into euro and nam. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Tell you one thing. I would make love to the 18z hi res nam. The composite reflectivity is a thing of beauty. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html Smoke show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM would have had well over 1" melted QPF in CT in 2 hours. In a good sized portion of CT too. I wouldn't say the NAM is doing well, JMHO. Ok you can live by the RGEM and GFS agreeing, I'll look at the OKXradar and see that CT is about to get absolutely crushed, and the QPF will be greater than the 0.25" to 0.5" that the GFS spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think that 4km nam is onto something. Current representing the CCB very well. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WSNE secondary jackpot?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Smoke show... I prefer this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Slushy accumulations now, heavy snow, but its wet in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think that 4km nam is onto something. Current representing the CCB very well. We shall see. We hope and pray and bang silly. That model is just pure porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Boston will be paralyzed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4.5" inches here in Ansonia CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There is no space between the falling flakes! If this were fluffy, I'd have 7 inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just a bad ,bad performance..get em next time GFS Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Center well west of GFS forecast. NAM/ECMWF control win this one from 00z run..easily. about 100 miles further west!pic.twitter.com/iMwhn2RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowing pretty good here. Just got back in from sledding. 2.5" in the middle of the beaver pond. 2" at my stake in the middle of an open field. Enjoy it out east folks! 19.5/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We hope and pray and bang silly. That model is just pure porn. It's probably overdone with hourly qpf values as usual, but I think the progged radar presentation will be close to reality. Maybe a little too far west in 6 hours but not much. It just seems to be handling the situation really well at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's time weenies..it's time... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND AND SRN NY...FAR NERN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 082151Z - 090145Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING ...WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR OVER SRN NY/NERN NJ...TO 2-3 INCHES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. DISCUSSION...SFC OBS FROM 21Z CONTINUE TO REFLECT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE CYCLONE...WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4 MB/HR OBSERVED. RADAR REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC SHOWS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS RI/SRN MA/SRN CT. HOWEVER...SOME BRIGHT-BAND ENHANCEMENT MAY BE OCCURRING AS MIXED P-TYPE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS PREDOMINANT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 33-35 F. INITIALLY...NEAR- OR ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPRESS RATES IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS N-NE...A CHANGEOVER TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INCREASING IN CONCERT WITH INTENSE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH /LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY PER 2130Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH THE OFFSHORE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER LOCATED BENEATH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE FACTORS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTREMELY HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AS SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ..ROGERS.. 02/08/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I prefer this frame. rad12.gif I prefer the 4 previous and the 4 following lol. Or whatever number they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ok you can live by the RGEM and GFS agreeing, I'll look at the OKXradar and see that CT is about to get absolutely crushed, and the QPF will be greater than the 0.25" to 0.5" that the GFS spits out. The GFS doesn't have less than .75 anywhere in SNE aside of the tiniest of slivers. It's pretty much 1 to 1.5" statewide out that way added to the .1 to .2 it put out pre 18z, it's 1.1 to about 1.7 state wide http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_precip_p24.gif It's quite possibly underdone, but I'm also pretty sure nobody has seen the NAM type totals in CT yet. I don't think this http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_precip_p06.gif Looks all that much like this, but we'll see what the next two hours do. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=40.287907,-75.184937,43.157109,-70.62561&density=1&precip=1&value=P03I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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