40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro has the def band Over CMass and CT I'd lose it if I get caught in between again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Backing off the 24-30"+? Have a bad feeling for here...at least SE guys will do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd lose it if I get caught in between again. It rotates it East though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro had the band to ORH but I would argue how far west like Kevin had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It rotates it East though... That's the thing too with this death band, it doesn't really appear to lose much intensity as it is pivoting...seems to stay intact so it delivers the goods to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oh Yes! Not to try to be a jinx....but I really like where you and I are situated for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It rotates it East though... I just need this to get going....the further ne stall, and deform placement are driving me nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Rough estimate...48hr QPF valid 48hrs 0.50" PQI-1V4-MPV 0.75" HUL-BML-RUT 1.00" CYFC-IZG-DDH 1.50" BHB-CON-POU 2.00" PWM-PSM-FIT-CEF-BDR Map for the weenies. http://coolwx.com/analysis/surface/current/stns.ne-large.png Thanks for the map, as I didn't know the Fredericton code. Puts me halfway between .75 and 1". Unless we get into something heavier than the 5-10 dbz (or less) my place has had so far, it would be 8:1 snow grains at 5F. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's the thing too with this death band, it doesn't really appear to lose much intensity as it is pivoting...seems to stay intact so it delivers the goods to everyone. Wherever the pivot point is..will be the jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wherever the pivot point is..will be the jack and that's where you're going to see 30-40''. I have that from northern/central RI extending into SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's something very important I forgot to tell you! Don't cross the streams… It would be bad… When that punch of west to east motion over WV/ W PA slips into the underbelly of that vortex east of the Del Marv, this thing is going to wind up like a top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just need this to get going....the further ne stall, and deform placement are driving me nuts This WAS a big shift in the Euro compared to last night. It's I think 100+ miles further ENE at each time point. The "stall" occurs around 12z Saturday. It's now 75-125 miles ENE of the earlier stall spot, which was 50-100 miles ENE of the 12z yesterday run. It'll matter come morning, particularly if it's not done. We shall see, meso model etc time and there's a lot of precip in the meantime. The later stall though may take away a few spots on the rankings, JMHO. Who cares though, really so long as it doesn't end up another 75 miles east in reality. In the late stages as DT was talking about, the Euro did come off the further SW stall towards some of other global guidance in shifting it further to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Backing off the 24-30"+? Eh we'll see. I want to see how the bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Backing off the 24-30"+? I don't think that was ever a good call. It's possible we hit 2 feet but probably not likely. 18-24'' is much more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When that punch of west to east motion over WV/ W PA slips into the underbelly of that vortex east of the Del Marv, this thing is going to wind up like a top. Like a stemwinder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Jesus that precip signature looks bloody monstrous. Actually, that looks an awful lot like the satellite images of Feb. 1978, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That actually kind of looks like the GFS I think. Definitely not like the NAM...the NAM has a really tight circulation at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's the 0z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 messenger i guess that is why the GFS is still a valuable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This WAS a big shift in the Euro compared to last night. It's I think 100+ miles further ENE at each time point. The "stall" occurs around 12z Saturday. It's now 75-125 miles ENE of the earlier stall spot, which was 50-100 miles ENE of the 12z yesterday run. It'll matter come morning, particularly if it's not done. We shall see, meso model etc time and there's a lot of precip in the meantime. The later stall though may take away a few spots on the rankings, JMHO. Who cares though, really so long as it doesn't end up another 75 miles east in reality. In the late stages as DT was talking about, the Euro did come off the further SW stall towards some of other global guidance in shifting it further to sea. I thought we just may escape that last minute downgrade that distinguishes between epic, and simply historic....but alas, no such luck.Always happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That actually kind of looks like the GFS I think. Definitely not like the NAM...the NAM has a really tight circulation at 700mb. It's a reasonable representation of the GFS. I'd take the Euro for banding signals later. The RAP continues to be interesting, take a look. I wouldn't say that it's discounting the GFS. It's been pretty steadfast in keeping on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When that punch of west to east motion over WV/ W PA slips into the underbelly of that vortex east of the Del Marv, this thing is going to wind up like a top. Tip, do you see it being a further east/later stall? I would think it would be earlier than depicted the way thing are currently unfolding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Saw this guy in the common should be an exciting afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I thought we just may escape that last minute downgrade that distinguishes between epic, and simply historic....but alas, no such luck. Always happens... Ray we can't say that yet. That's all I'm pointing out. We just don't know, but I'd rather not have seen the Euro go ENE with the stall two runs in a row because some times those things don't stop. Thankfully it's producing a ton of dynamics and moisture anyway, pre-stall. I don't think the RAP is doing a bad job at all based on observations/radar etc. Check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's a reasonable representation of the GFS. I'd take the Euro for banding signals later. The RAP continues to be interesting, take a look. I wouldn't say that it's discounting the GFS. It's been pretty steadfast in keeping on that track. The 17z RAP was pretty interesting, at least with respect to the 700mb low b/c it actually looks like there would be room for it to back a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Someone will get demolished by the fronto band. Could be ORH to Bob or so. Cape will get massive CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 17z RAP was pretty interesting, at least with respect to the 700mb low b/c it actually looks like there would be room for it to back a bit NW. RAP and Euro are pretty similar on the surface position by 0z. Same at 8h. I can't see 7h but I'm assuming the Euro is further NW as it's quite a bit NW with the moisture. We'll see right now actually, the RAP kind of skims the CT coast and doesn't really pivot everything up. Looking at the radar the RAP isn't far enough NW with the heavy stuff by any means. EDIT: Arbitrarily picked the 15z nam 8 hour panel vs the 18z 5 hour panel. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this is the best damn board in the world look at those echos showing up on BOX radar to the south, tick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this is the best damn board in the world look at those echos showing up on BOX radar to the south, tick tock This is going to be incredible seeing this type of stuff for 24-36 hrs, especially once the sfc low really begins to bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RAP and Euro are pretty similar on the surface position by 0z. Same at 8h. I can't see 7h but I'm assuming the Euro is further NW as it's quite a bit NW with the moisture. We'll see right now actually, the RAP kind of skims the CT coast and doesn't really pivot everything up. Looking at the radar the RAP isn't far enough NW with the heavy stuff by any means. EDIT: Arbitrarily picked the 15z nam 8 hour panel vs the 18z 5 hour panel. Interesting. The RAP and Euro do look quite similar and both would bring a crushing deform band at least through eastern MA...can rule it extending back west to like ORH and perhaps into eastern CT but the RAP/Euro seem to be on the same page for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.