weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We have four flakes of snow here in Bennington as of noon. I think this storm will bust big time for western parts of New England. I'll be surprised if we get more than 6". Never fails. Whenever we're supposed to get a big storm, we get sleet. And whenever a storm has a chance of hugging the coast, it goes over the benchmark and we get fringed. Oh well.. enjoy your snow, easterners. Of your 20 posts, 90% have complained about how screwed you get in snow. Meanwhile, most have half your climo and totals. Give it a rest bub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not very experienced at reading these. Are we seeing the northern stream impulse starting to tug at the southern impulse over PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z UK QPF higher for ENY and WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My hope is as the storm bombs it slows faster than some of the latest guidance shows. We keep discounting the NAM, at some point it should get this right...12 hours seems to be it's sweet spot The RUC seems very reasonable to me. Rap whatever its called now. Not focusing on QPF, just the overall track. Well I THINK an earlier phase would mean an earlier stall right? I don't really know what I'm looking for (someone else can explain wonderfully I'm sure) but it looks like it is starting to phase on that mesoanalysis? Not sure, I'd love to see some met input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Beautiful echoes south of Long Island.. Those echoes are going to rock CT later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the visible satellite shots tomorrow AM are going to look very nice. this should have almost an eye-like appearance SE of ACK. should be a classic image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oh gosh, good question. I am not a local expert on the terrain, nor do I have a well defined climatology in my head like ORH and many others here regarding SNE. I just love tracking these. That said, I am impressed with what I am seeing thus far this morning. Only negative is it may be deepening too rapidly and stalling just a tad as convection wraps ahead of the upper level PV anomaly. That may tend to slow this down a tad. The heavy dump comes as convective cells initiating along the occlusion/trough axis and wrap into the WCB/deform band. Unfortunately that is over water. The positive is the stretching deformation/upper level frontogenesis that will occur later over SNE may be epic, and the NAM may not be too far off once the phase completes. In fact, the NAM is simulating one of the most hellacious episodes of upper level frontogenesis I have ever seen...so much so it is actually forming upper level PV as large amounts of LH is released aloft above the front. Can't say I have ever even seen such a thing. NAM is too wet though, way too wet. Not realistic to have the same precip over SNE as there currently is over the Gulf Stream. Even with dendritic growth, hard to survive in high ratios when 70 MPH northeasterly winds are ripping them apart. There is an outside shot at 30" if both the decaying convective comma head and then the upper level frontal band manage to stall over the same region similar to the NAM depiction. And believe it or not, there is reason to believe the NAM is not completely off its rocker like most think. But the stars need to align. I am definitely not afraid of an east track at this point, though. Good description. This is the best setup I've seen in a long time for a chunk of SNE...particularly eastern half. Prob since January 2005. I think there will be a lot of 24"+ totals and def some totals that approach or crack 30" wherever the stars align for some location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thanks BI you know i'm not sure if i mentioned this yesterday but it was when i was asking ryan what is caution flags were, that i was thinking i have seen numerous times models TO SLOW wrt strength/ deeping of a surface low esp one that is phasing. i was concerned the storm may max out a bit further SW of where it's prog'd . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CF back through KBED....it's headed se.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CF back through KBED....it's headed se.., Good, but it will take a while to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I am having mini weenie meltdowns as I look at that heavy snow over coastal Maine and the 1/2 inch that I have. It is irrational I know but I can't help it. Yeah I feel the same way. I don't usually get too worked up over snowstorms but this one has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daninline Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I setup my live feed in Thompson,CT http://www.ustream.tv/channel/bigblockdan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Suny MM5 FWIW. Can really see the difference between the new and old runs later. New run is much further ENE, so the backside hit is considerably less than it's earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Drip drip drip Sticking here, but having trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Models have it generally around 18-21z. Seems to have already started on visual observation. 12z UK QPF higher for ENY and WNE. Snap182.jpg Snap183.jpg Snap184.jpg Snap185.jpg Snap186.jpg Snap187.jpg At least one thing has trended in a friendly manner. While I think it's taking on more eastern movement, the overall movement is painstakingly slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow--call that a phase?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CF from boxford, ma to North reading to SE wilmington to extreme NW lexington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like an eye wall is forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im against the mm5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Seems to have already started on visual observation. At least one thing has trended in a friendly manner. While I think it's taking on more eastern movement, the overall movement is painstakingly slow. Really? You see an E movement? It's still got a mostly northern component IMO with some east movement. Unless that's what you meant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotionxxUSxx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CF back through KBED....it's headed se.., just came through sudbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CF from boxford, ma to North reading to SE wilmington to extreme NW lexington. Wish it would stay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 per SPC analysis at 500mb this thing is about closed off now, 50 miles SE of DE/MD border shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 per SPC analysis at 500mb this thing is about closed off now, 50 miles SE of DE/MD border shore So, if that happens, which of the models verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Andy that's an incredible band on the UK wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Near real-time Visible Satellite Loop from NASA, centered over Lyndon State College in Vermont: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=44&lon=-72&zoom=4&width=1880&height=1010&type=Animation&zoom=2&info=vis&quality=96&numframes=8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 per SPC analysis at 500mb this thing is about closed off now, 50 miles SE of DE/MD border shore That was modeled, it will open up and the N stream vort eventually will drop in, give it time. It's going as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 mattb65 , that's good to know, i was just posting that it's about closed. i do have a concern that best qpf is a bit further SW from long island across S SNE as this thing bombs. esp S CT near shore over to S RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z HIRES NMM and ARW both bring 2.00 to 3.00" of QPF into Cape Cod, MA as snow. Once the coastal front crashes SEward we see colder temperatures and better accumulating snows. Total of 3.00-4.00 of QPF on Cape between both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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