N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And what for NE CT? woodstock is in the middle of the 2.5-2.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My god pick up a boston herald... first 6 pages are either about 78 or the storm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yes, I saw that a bit ago. Would like to see some of our peeps scratch out a 30 spot. I will take my low end thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 woodstock is in the middle of the 2.5-2.75 12z will be out in about 2hrs. i'm very curious to see any shifts, will post them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Somewhere down around the PHL area there is a fledgling meteorologist winter weather fanatic that doesn't quite yet fully get the nuances of the weather, much less the idiosyncratic nature of the model behaviors attempting to predict its vagaries. He or she just knows that 2 cycles ago, the NAM had close to 3" of liq equiv QPF for PHL, and now, for the 6 hour intervals, the NAM has reduced their totals to .15 + .08 + .16 + .16, then ending. Also, busting too cold (meaning they are raining now) to add to that insult. ...Meanwhile, winter storm warnings are flying. I cannot imagine the scale of abject frustration, torture, and ...ire, raging in that individuals mind right now. Man, if there ever needed to be a proof of satan... that apoplexy probably couldn't more elaborately hone in on the necessary evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 With reports of 6-8" already, it's hard not to bump totals up. I mean even if this storm is a total screw job (relatively speaking) and we end up at a foot. Still 20" of snow. Yes, That precipitation enhancement from this am would justify your reasoning for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oh my god... Just saw that and almost passed out. 2" here, and the numbers east are just INSANE -skisheep I'm in the 3.75 contour, but I'm expecting between 2.25-2.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i'm trying to keep my pants on but it's hard http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php go to total qpf. don't shift 3+ from salem ma out to burlingotn down to framingham and NW ri and E. RI/ to s. shore to E plymouth county bullsyeye 3.75-4.25. Mid level fronto banding signal NOT shown in Western SNE. Holy hell! Jeez how accurate would you say that'll be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Are there any short term models that have any degree of skill on placement of banding features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My god pick up a boston herald... first 6 pages are either about 78 or the storm today. The 78 storm is engrained in my memory and I was in Baltimore for that. I know it was even better here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z will be out in about 2hrs. i'm very curious to see any shifts, will post them That is what I was getting at, how much will any shift affect eastern CT. I will take 20 inches and run, but wouldn't mind seeing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My god pick up a boston herald... first 6 pages are either about 78 or the storm today. save that one!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 seriously guys...keep all the non-model / analysis stuff out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Holy hell! Jeez how accurate would you say that'll be? the 12z euro imo is the judge WRT to ending the E shifting. minimalizing it to like 20 miles , or being a last minute D bag if the euro holds course, i think the meso can be taken seriously wrt where heaviest banding sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My brother flying from PVD to MCO at 36000 feet was reporting at the edge of the storm the towers went up another 10-15k feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When does this get kicked east? Models have it generally around 18-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Phil, how does this look compared to the GFS/NAM depiction right now? Pretty much ATT (as they thought)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My brother flying from PVD to MCO at 36000 feet was reporting at the edge of the storm the towers went up another 10-15k feet. Man that thing must look like being on the edge of a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Phil, how does this look compared to the GFS/NAM depiction right now? Pretty much ATT (as they thought)? They didn't think the same thing, did they?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 24+ area is getting larger............... StormTotalSnowFcst 020913.png Yes I am now in it! Are you? Well at least you have the BW. I'm nervous as hell though and sometimes I don't believe it. I am having mini weenie meltdowns as I look at that heavy snow over coastal Maine and the 1/2 inch that I have. It is irrational I know but I can't help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Some pretty incredible meteorology going on here. Giant lobster claw. That is so effing cool looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where's the storm now? Strength? Does anyone have a latest surface analysis? RAP still looks very good. IMO it's done a fair job so far. No real changes on it from everyones expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Noyes just said it might change to rain briefly in BOS. Rain/Mix here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where's the storm now? Strength? Does anyone have a latest surface analysis? RAP still looks very good. IMO it's done a fair job so far. No real changes on it from everyones expectation. http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=pchg&underlay=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where's the storm now? Strength? Does anyone have a latest surface analysis? RAP still looks very good. IMO it's done a fair job so far. No real changes on it from everyones expectation. Pressure down nice and far. Now when you're looking for a phase, are you looking for the isobars to touch both streams like they are starting to do in that frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 messenger eyeballing i'd say about 40 miles ENE of VA/NC coast. 992 ish on SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We have four flakes of snow here in Bennington as of noon. I think this storm will bust big time for western parts of New England. I'll be surprised if we get more than 6". Never fails. Whenever we're supposed to get a big storm, we get sleet. And whenever a storm has a chance of hugging the coast, it goes over the benchmark and we get fringed. Oh well.. enjoy your snow, easterners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 amazing BI sorry to do this but if you were forecasting, what would your highest amounts be for E New england Oh gosh, good question. I am not a local expert on the terrain, nor do I have a well defined climatology in my head like ORH and many others here regarding SNE. I just love tracking these. That said, I am impressed with what I am seeing thus far this morning. Only negative is it may be deepening too rapidly and stalling just a tad as convection wraps ahead of the upper level PV anomaly. That may tend to slow this down a tad. The heavy dump comes as convective cells initiating along the occlusion/trough axis and wrap into the WCB/deform band. Unfortunately that is over water. The positive is the stretching deformation/upper level frontogenesis that will occur later over SNE may be epic, and the NAM may not be too far off once the phase completes. In fact, the NAM is simulating one of the most hellacious episodes of upper level frontogenesis I have ever seen...so much so it is actually forming upper level PV as large amounts of LH is released aloft above the front. Can't say I have ever even seen such a thing. NAM is too wet though, way too wet. Not realistic to have the same precip over SNE as there currently is over the Gulf Stream. Even with dendritic growth, hard to survive in high ratios when 70 MPH northeasterly winds are ripping them apart. There is an outside shot at 30" if both the decaying convective comma head and then the upper level frontal band manage to stall over the same region similar to the NAM depiction. And believe it or not, there is reason to believe the NAM is not completely off its rocker like most think. But the stars need to align. I am definitely not afraid of an east track at this point, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pressure down nice and far. Now when you're looking for a phase, are you looking for the isobars to touch both streams like they are starting to do in that frame? My hope is as the storm bombs it slows faster than some of the latest guidance shows. We keep discounting the NAM, at some point it should get this right...12 hours seems to be it's sweet spot The RUC seems very reasonable to me. Rap whatever its called now. Not focusing on QPF, just the overall track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yes I am now in it! Are you? Well at least you have the BW. I'm nervous as hell though and sometimes I don't believe it. I am having mini weenie meltdowns as I look at that heavy snow over coastal Maine and the 1/2 inch that I have. It is irrational I know but I can't help it. Its just to my south, Not really concerned, I would be more then happy with the low end of 18", My call has been 12-20" here, Will wait to see the 12z Euro then adjust up if need be............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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