moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol...the models still matter - the event is just starting and part of "nowcasting" is using the models At this point, I'm pinning my hopes on the observation that Ryan and Will had of dying convection down south. Perhaps that's something the NAM/SREFS missed. It's tough to sneeze at a foot of snow except for when you were so close to significantly more. Congrats Blizz/Dave and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 With repeated model runs (excepting the GFS) continuing to point to a major-to-historic snowstorm in New England, I'm certainly encouraged with that possibility. Hopefully, Jerry, Ginxy, Kevin, and others will experience something along the lines of a blizzard of a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct Because it's the NAM and those numbers are unlikely to verify. The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. The SREFs have cut back again (pretty substantially) in CT and continue the trend. 1.5" or so statewide with more in SE CT and a bit less in W CT. The trend matters... the numbers don't. Still thinking 1-2 feet but likely not looking at historic totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah the amount of qpf is pretty nuts historic for sure weenie away! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030 i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan, or anyone else, what would you say a realistic forecast for SW CT is, taking into account the latest trend? Do we still have a decent chance at 12"+? Looks like everything but the GFS gets us there, but correct me if I'm missing something. Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Trends have been crystal clear last 12-18 hours. Those who don't see that are blind lol. Dude, the NAM had to come east lol. And even still it shows 2'+ for all of CT. I know I know "cut it in half" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct Because it's the NAM for one so the usual rules about cutting QPF by at least one-third still apply, and the trend has been to slowly reduce QPF with time and shift the maxima further and further east. For most of us this won't be historic unless there's some shift west in the next 6-12 hours. The late capture was always a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct It's the trend that is a concern. Compare 12z NAM with 0z NAM...pretty sizable jump east. If GFS stays the course I gotta agree with Ryan, this won't be historic. Lol...the models still matter - the event is just starting and part of "nowcasting" is using the models Agreed. I hate the people who start throwing out models 12 hours out claiming its nowcast time. Even the bet met isn't gonna be able to nowcast 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam finally catching on Do we have mixing issues, south coast/plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Cut the NAM by 1/3 and I still get 2 feet of snow. Not sure ill ever be able to say that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Because it's the NAM for one so the usual rules about cutting QPF by at least one-third still apply, and the trend has been to slowly reduce QPF with time and shift the maxima further and further east. For most of us this won't be historic unless there's some shift west in the next 6-12 hours. The late capture was always a concern. We'll see...radar looks mighty fine to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM QPF always blows but the Euro and SREF all get us to about 2'' of QPF, so we could theoretically come close. I'm kind of expecting what we got in Jan '11, only with wind. About 18''. With 2" QPF and cold temps I don't know how we would only get 18"...poor snow growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i dont know how 2.5-3" of qpf on NAM isn't historic for ct Because Ryan doesn't believe an 18 hour forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 With 2" QPF and cold temps I don't know how we would only get 18"...poor snow growth? Well first we actually need that QPF to verify. But then yeah, snow growth doesn't depend on temps at the surface. I don't know what the profile looks like aloft and also winds aloft and at the surface might shred flakes. I'd be thrilled with "only 18" too lol, especially here which isn't exactly the most likely location to jackpot in these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 With repeated model runs (excepting the GFS) continuing to point to a major-to-historic snowstorm in New England, I'm certainly encouraged with that possibility. Hopefully, Jerry, Ginxy, Kevin, and others will experience something along the lines of a blizzard of a lifetime. It seems likely that this area will have true blizzard conditions later tonight. Hopefully we get some thunder snow like I remember happening during the Blizzard of 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Because it's the NAM and those numbers are unlikely to verify. The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. The SREFs have cut back again (pretty substantially) in CT and continue the trend. 1.5" or so statewide with more in SE CT and a bit less in W CT. The trend matters... the numbers don't. Still thinking 1-2 feet but likely not looking at historic totals. Whats the record for BDL 24.1" and BDR only has a few storms over 15" since the 50s.. getting in that range will be historic.. ya we won't get the 3'+ like we could have but I think both locations will easily be in top 5 all time which is historic I think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Because it's the NAM and those numbers are unlikely to verify. The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. The SREFs have cut back again (pretty substantially) in CT and continue the trend. 1.5" or so statewide with more in SE CT and a bit less in W CT. The trend matters... the numbers don't. Still thinking 1-2 feet but likely not looking at historic totals. That's a good call. More east, less west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 With repeated model runs (excepting the GFS) continuing to point to a major-to-historic snowstorm in New England, I'm certainly encouraged with that possibility. Hopefully, Jerry, Ginxy, Kevin, and others will experience something along the lines of a blizzard of a lifetime. Thanks Don.This is shaping up to be in the top 2 events for this part of CT at least in my lifetime. We'll need to beat 26 inches which seems fairly possible. Enjoy the snow down there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We'll see...radar looks mighty fine to my eyes. Radar does look fine. For a solid snowstorm, but nothing historic. I have 7.5 inches on the season so if 8-12 or 10-14 verifies I'll take it. For comparison, I've broken then 20 inch mark for a single storm a couple of times in the last 8 years alone, and I doubt we even approach that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Agreed. I hate the people who start throwing out models 12 hours out claiming its nowcast time. Even the bet met isn't gonna be able to nowcast 12 hours out. Not to mention that models don't get less accurate before they get more accurate... (maybe that is true relative to each other, but I cringe every time I hear "The GFS isn't good until 96 hours out" or something similar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's the trend that is a concern. Compare 12z NAM with 0z NAM...pretty sizable jump east. If GFS stays the course I gotta agree with Ryan, this won't be historic. Agreed. I hate the people who start throwing out models 12 hours out claiming its nowcast time. Even the bet met isn't gonna be able to nowcast 12 hours out. True, I'll wait for GFS I just don't know how much more room, the NAM has to be wrong.. If it's still trending than ok, but we still have room it has to be a substantial trend inside 18 hours.. i just don't see how it snows for 24 hours and we don't see widespread 18" which makes it top 5.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 weenie-wishcasting running rampant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 weenie-wishcasting running rampant. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 weenie-wishcasting running rampant. You think this is bad, go read the NYC forum, they are freaking out over there big time and coming up with all sorts of absurd reasoning. Here is reasonable compared to there. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You think this is bad, go read the NYC forum, they are freaking out over there big time and coming up with all sorts of absurd reasoning. Here is reasonable compared to there. -skisheep I popped in over there. Couldn't take the desperation so I left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thinking about the GFS and the idea that the bombing (and esp. the stall) happens later/east of the other guidance - it seems to be somewhat consistent with this year's previous setups - with E MA and the Cape bearing the brunt. The late capture/stall is becoming more likely which shifts the target of historic snows east toward Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 weenie-wishcasting running rampant. Its snowing Kwitcher bitchin people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I popped in over there. Couldn't take the desperation so I left. Not sure why they are freaking out, sure it's not what it was yesterday but this is going to put Central Park above climo most likely(they need 7.3 inches I belive), and for where we have been this winter there should be no need to complain. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 just took this from the NYC thread 12Z ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NAM BEST FIT ON PRES. ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON6 HR QPF ENDING 12Z. HOWEVER THE MOST IMPORTANT...IT LOOKS LIKETHE GFS IS IN LARGE ERROR ON ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND THAT THE 06ZNAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATE...I.E. COLDER. CC ON THE821 AM RADAR SHOWS THE PHASE CHANGE VERY NICELY...FROM NEAR KUKT-JUST N OF KTTN TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KLDJ AND KBLM. WE`VE SEEN 48-52 KTGUSTS JUST EAST OF KORF AT 13Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 With repeated model runs (excepting the GFS) continuing to point to a major-to-historic snowstorm in New England, I'm certainly encouraged with that possibility. Hopefully, Jerry, Ginxy, Kevin, and others will experience something along the lines of a blizzard of a lifetime.Thanks Don me too. With the winds and qpf predictions should be a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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