CapturedNature Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How much QPF was in the April Fools 1997 storm? I gotta imagine that was more QPF as snow than what this storm looks to be. I posted in the other thread that that was my highest snow total at 28". Looking at the QPF, I measured 2.00" on the nose. Not a bad ratio. If we could hold to similar ratios, maybe I could do better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ryan what are your caution flags with this system, i can speak for everyone here saying you are one of the best, so is there something you are seeing (that lends credence to the GFS mid level low positioning) , that has you concerned. Thanks pickles. I think the track of the mid level low is just a bit uncertain. Hard to pin down. There's lots of convection that's around the southern stream vort which always gives the models fits so I'm not terribly sure. Hard to go against the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 guys i see boston bouy is 40.6F and winds are forecast to be E tommorrow thru what 5-6pm? Are we SURE that areas in EMA near the water don't start as rain for a few hours tommorrow afternoon. i mean like BOS, Scituate, ? etc. Doubtful. Upstairs it's much colder so it may get to the low 30s for a time but you don't automatically rise. Eg: BOS with light onshore winds all evening tonight....mid 20s. Boston buoy is plenty cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 phil I noticed some models had another area of light snow down here, east winds now 29/13 or so any chance of some sound or ocean efffect? yeah i think that's a possibility. not necessarily true ocean effect in the sense that it's not really being generated now - sometimes as the wind shifts around to the east it grabs the stuff that is offshore from the earlier offshore flow, and brings it back onshore for a while. it's usually relatively short-lived as the processes needed to really feed OES aren't going. but further north up toward BOS and then up the seacoast it might have a shelf life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z SREFs a rolled out. Still 2.5" 24h totals in SE MA/CC 2" fo E MA/RI 1" for S VT/ S NH/ S ME/ CT 0.5" just S of canadian border They look pretty good to me based on down south. Really, really tough forecast tonight for the coast NYC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I was explaining how much I wanted as much snow as possible....50 or more if it were doable. After we catch up on sleep when the storm ends we'll need another snow fix. Lets enjoy this one.....a truly epic event for the ages. Think about it, 2-3 inch qpf rainstorms are noteworthy when people always say...imagine if this was snow? Now it will be! Really good point, Jerry. Drink it in. 21z SREFS definitely ticked SE just a smidge. They just came out. Not much, normal wobbles, but SE. with the 1" and 2" lines in New England. Pretty sure it is tracking on the right side of the 18z guidance, but we'll see. That doesn't mean much at all to us. Insightful post. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z SREFs a rolled out. Still 2.5" 24h totals in SE MA/CC 2" fo E MA/RI 1" for S VT/ S NH/ S ME/ CT 0.5" just S of canadian border Boom. I'm so ready. SE MASS is well deserving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know this question is probably frowned upon, but this is my first time being in NE for a Blizzard...In fact, first true Blizzard I'll likely see since I was 10 in 1996 in Philadelphia...What kind of ratios are we looking at in NE? 8/10:1 and then more towards the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://www.myweather.com/#/outlook Futurecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 srefs look good. would love to see the nam do that exact same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Doubtful. Upstairs it's much colder so it may get to the low 30s for a time but you don't automatically rise. Eg: BOS with light onshore winds all evening tonight....mid 20s. Boston buoy is plenty cold enough. Part of the reason for that phenomenon is that the recent antecedent CAA is too fresh and has not had enough time to be modified by the coupled boundary layer out at sea; the water, being in the low 40s is in no hurry to mix so the polar air can hang out for a tad after advecting seaward and still be quite cold - then if it turns west it's not exactly transporting a 40 degree therm onshore. More like snow flurries more than anything else. Will likes to refer to polar air some times as "rotted" polar air - that's like polar air that's hung around a longer time and so the air off shore does finally take on the 40'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good night everyone. Good luck to those staying up for models..My suggestion..go to bed early and rest up. tomorrow night is gonna be the night of your lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Inner harbor 35f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Doubtful. Upstairs it's much colder so it may get to the low 30s for a time but you don't automatically rise. Eg: BOS with light onshore winds all evening tonight....mid 20s. Boston buoy is plenty cold enough. ehh sustained e winds near 20 mile at logan tommorrow for hours with 850's creeping to like -6 or so, i think it could go over for a time, but not confident. But i think there could be MORE anxious moments then you think with winds prog'd to be east, not NE tommorrow into evening, then obviously dumping snow for the hvy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 srefs look good. would love to see the nam do that exact same thing. Yeah SREFS I think look very good down our way. I really do think the NAM was too far west at 18z, so let's see. Looks to be starting a little SW at 0z. It's slower. I think it's speed was what was getting it west anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know this question is probably frowned upon, but this is my first time being in NE for a Blizzard...In fact, first true Blizzard I'll likely see since I was 10 in 1996 in Philadelphia...What kind of ratios are we looking at in NE? 8/10:1 and then more towards the end? In Marlboro? I would think 12:1 to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 THanks Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i think the OES will get going around midnite off of SW maine toward portsmouth/newburyport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know this question is probably frowned upon, but this is my first time being in NE for a Blizzard...In fact, first true Blizzard I'll likely see since I was 10 in 1996 in Philadelphia...What kind of ratios are we looking at in NE? 8/10:1 and then more towards the end? out that way(marlboro) 10:1 should be easy to attain, quite possibly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 In Marlboro? I would think 12:1 to start wonder what the ratio's will be in the deform band over Western Areas marlboro may be between the E SNE qpf max on meso, and the West central deform 2'ndary max. i mean heck thou i'm not saying drowning in subsidence but just mentioning what i saw on aLOT of meso's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 save this screenshot: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.267223&lon=-71.875832&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Worcester%20Regional%20Airport%20%28ORH%29%2C%20375%20Airport%20Drive%2C%20Worcester%2C%20MA%2001602%2C%20USA 3 periods of 100% heavy snow Done, wxwatcher91. I have started a thread dedicated to the Boston Blizzard of Feb 8-9 2013 on my board and will list every storm thread I can find. I personally LOVE this NWS disco from Taunton. It is already in my archives http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://www.myweather.com/#/outlook Futurecast ScreenHunter_14 Feb. 07 20.40.png I don't know where that thing comes from but I like it. 47.8" for Shrewsbury, obviously overdone but I see us in the 20-30" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Really only 1" back this way on the srefs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ehh sustained e winds near 20 mile at logan tommorrow for hours with 850's creeping to like -6 or so, i think it could go over for a time, but not confident. But i think there could be MORE anxious moments then you think with winds prog'd to be east, not NE tommorrow into evening, then obviously dumping snow for the hvy stuff. Every single big storm starts with screaming east winds. December 2003....water was considerably warmer. I doubt it rains at BOS but it may wet snow for a time. Saturday early am with heavy snow and 15f and 50kt winds will be something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Jerry you are one of my idols on this board, a non met yet an absolute treasure of information. Enjoy this storm, I know you've been waiting all winter for it. The ghosts of 93-94 are not walking through that door but I think this will do How many of us will be imbibing in something special tomorrow night, toasting GInxy, then heading out for a JebWalk in a whiteout !!! Congrats to all !!!! Thanks for the thoughts and I concur about Jerry, Old Man Winter. He missed 78 and I so so want this to stall and just nail him witha jackpot, nothing and I am dead serious would make me happier as a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://www.myweather.com/#/outlook Futurecast ScreenHunter_14 Feb. 07 20.40.png Not sure what that is, but I'll take the 36" it's spitting out here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Debating whether to stay up for the EURO, but I think sleep is going to win out, tomorrow night could be an all nighter and energy is essential -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks pretty much the same to me Scott S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Also....Harvey's story about 78. East winds and BOS in mid 30s scared the crap out of him as he tells the story. But we know the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Had to get this posted before sleep @MattNoyesNECN: Airing on News at 9pm, 10, midnight on @NECN - Southern New England accumulation forecast: http://t.co/5TjEgvIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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