codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i never believed the super big numbers outside of worcestor to boston to interior ri for anyone i thought twenty inches was a big stretch west of the river to be honest but i did think a foot to fifteen inches of snow was pretty much a lock. i want the nam to at least semi verify as much as anyone else but i think the trends here are obvious. perhaps they stop going east but for the euro to shift 50 miles on one run at this stage seems really big to me with plenty of time for anothe fifty. frankly while the radar looks good to the south..it doesnt look epic to me and i would like to see more snow breaking out farther west. i hope i am wildly wrong but i would have hedged lower on amounts and if there was a last minute shift nw or w then adjust upwards, spitting out these numbers like this with given trends on models that have handled this winter better thus far just seems foolish to me. i am not saying this cant break right but right now the evidence supports the opposite out come which may just be a good snowstorm for a lot of folks but nothing to remember other than the insane amounts the guidance spit out up until and including the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eh wish gfs came around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I couldn't even sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like all Portland TV mets are going with ~20" for SW Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like where I sit in this one...should be far enough east to get into the good stuff. Expecting like 16-20", gonna be tense though until we know if the GFS is wrong or not. Too low. Box has us over two feet. I think we get nice banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 At this point is major vs historic more dependent on not getting the stall rather than the storm being a little further E? (I don't really care for W. MA b/c it was never historic here. Just curious about the dynamics) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 me either about to go back to bed until about 9 or so.. a few weenie flakes flying now I couldn't even sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I expected this from GFS...still leaning more towards the EC, even with the east shift Enjoy it Ray, Scooter, Jerry, Bob, Ginxy I just wanted 6"+...should get.3x that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Too low. Box has us over two feet. I think we get nice banding. BOX map might be a bit high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eastern LI is starting as rain. But boy it's close. On dual pol the freezing level is like 900 ft AGL. Snowing here. Coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i never believed the super big numbers outside of worcestor to boston to interior ri for anyone i thought twenty inches was a big stretch west of the river to be honest but i did think a foot to fifteen inches of snow was pretty much a lock. i want the nam to at least semi verify as much as anyone else but i think the trends here are obvious. perhaps they stop going east but for the euro to shift 50 miles on one run at this stage seems really big to me with plenty of time for anothe fifty. frankly while the radar looks good to the south..it doesnt look epic to me and i would like to see more snow breaking out farther west. i hope i am wildly wrong but i would have hedged lower on amounts and if there was a last minute shift nw or w then adjust upwards, spitting out these numbers like this with given trends on models that have handled this winter better thus far just seems foolish to me. i am not saying this cant break right but right now the evidence supports the opposite out come which may just be a good snowstorm for a lot of folks but nothing to remember other than the insane amounts the guidance spit out up until and including the day of. Triple bun meltdown :weenie: Radar hallucinations and all. FWIW latest RAP looks absolutely nothing like the GFS at all in how it handles the southern stream vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So this is going to be a pretty impressive wall of snow that moves into S CT over the next 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 can taste that band..........Good luck to all, its time to get out in this puppy and smell it, see what she's got. 30/24 ne perfect numbers........... hollla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 At this point is major vs historic more dependent on not getting the stall rather than the storm being a little further E? (I don't really care for W. MA b/c it was never historic here. Just curious about the dynamics) I'm pretty sure the stall/extent of a stall is what would elevate this to historic (top couple) as opposed to top 10. Looks like we'll still get a decent snowstorm. No Oct. 2011, but who would expect February snows to rival October ones anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Really? Wow.Yeah watch the 6:43 shot. He said he'll show them again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 BOX map might be a bit high Yeah, I thought the same thing. They upped most of W. MA into the 18-24" range. That map came out around 4am so it's pretty recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NWS and most outlets have the heavy snow waiting until afternoon but you have to th ink it's going to be ripping by 10 am and earlier in places per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm pretty sure the stall/extent of a stall is what would elevate this to historic (top couple) as opposed to top 10. Looks like we'll still get a decent snowstorm. No Oct. 2011, but who would expect February snows to rival October ones anyway? Your elevation made a huge difference in Oct storm. I only need 15" from this one to exceed my totals from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm pretty sure the stall/extent of a stall is what would elevate this to historic (top couple) as opposed to top 10. Looks like we'll still get a decent snowstorm. No Oct. 2011, but who would expect February snows to rival October ones anyway? I was hoping Berkshire East could get a new banner pic to hang next to the Oct 2011 31" picYou should still get 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well, lets do it. I'm really stoked to hear your obs and comments as this one goes. You've discussed and analyzed snow events for all across the northeast over the past two winters while you've been left sitting out. You've watched me post pictures of picnic tables with snow on them from September to May, lol. Now is your turn to do that and I'll be living vicariously through the SNE posts over the next 24-36 hours. Lets see lots of pictures in that observations thread folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, I thought the same thing. They upped most of W. MA into the 18-24" range. That map came out around 4am so it's pretty recent. I don't think there's any reason to panic...dude look at the radar. fook the models at this point, there is a monster wall of water coming at us. We might have a foot OTG by 5 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NWS and most outlets have the heavy snow waiting until afternoon but you have to th ink it's going to be ripping by 10 am and earlier in places per radar. Might hit Wachusett this morning. Might get trapped there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, I thought the same thing. They upped most of W. MA into the 18-24" range. That map came out around 4am so it's pretty recent. Probably a bit generous. I think they should have had us in a different warning region than Northern ORH. I think 14-18 is reasonable. Maybe with less wind we can get better ratios. Would be nice to get some orographical enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS total QPF might be eclipsed in the first 6 hours of the storm back this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, I thought the same thing. They upped most of W. MA into the 18-24" range. That map came out around 4am so it's pretty recent. I don't think there's any reason to panic...dude look at the radar. fook the models at this point, there is a monster wall of water coming at us. We might have a foot OTG by 5 PM There will likely be some evaporation issues for a while...probably not right on the shore but maybe inland a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I love when these cyclones take on this look... its hammer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There will likely be some evaporation issues for a while...probably not right on the shore but maybe inland a bit Been flurrying here since I got up at 4:15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I love when these cyclones take on this look... its hammer time. 2.JPG CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is the scooter-nears-seasonal-average-in-one-event storm. Feel pretty good about 20"+ from BOS to PVD to the Canal. Already gusting to 25 mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light snow has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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