CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z nam should make the last of the necessary adjustments with the main items of concern for MBY. 6z was a big adjustment. euro was a bit more progressive with the 00z run. something to watch. A bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree. Didn't look too close...but it really seems dependent upon how the models simulate convection across the NE quad...and show much wraps N and NW into the warm conveyor belt. The GFS has done better than I expected with the convection forming extensively along the eastern portion of the low near the trough axis/warm front triple point. If the low slides too far east...the influence on the digging northern stream is lost...and instead of the warm conveyor belt spreading west, most of the advection pattern spreads N-NE instead...until it is too late. Pretty crucial next 12 hours. Even a few hours difference on timing of the phase can mean 50+ mile shift. You can see how the convection that's firing south of HSE really drives the GFS depiction. That convection winds up screwing around with the advective processes and you wind up with a pretty tightly wound system that's unable to broaden and push west the WCB.so, does this mean u guys are thinking the gfs isn't as out to lunch as People keep posting about? Is its solution making you a bit unsure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so, does this mean u guys are thinking the gfs isn't as out to lunch as Poole keep posting about? Is its solution making you a bit unsure? Can't toss it but I'd certainly side more with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so, does this mean u guys are thinking the gfs isn't as out to lunch as Poole keep posting about? Is its solution making you a bit unsure? It's just something to watch. Even the euro was a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Adam Moyer @AmWx_Adam Final Fcst: BWI-1, ILG-2, PHL-4, TTN-8, ABE-6, LGA-12, BDL-20, ORH-24, PVD-28, BOS-24, PWM-20, BUF-10, YYZ-14 Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so, does this mean u guys are thinking the gfs isn't as out to lunch as Poole keep posting about? Is its solution making you a bit unsure? I think the GFS is too far east, but I am not sure that a slight east nudge from the current 00z guidance is unrealistic either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The differences are so large even down in S NJ. How long before on the ground verification can tell us which models are on the right track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Indeed, it was what Phil was talking about with respect to the dominant vortex/anomaly. But yeah, the way convection is developing so intensely far away from the upper low tends to enhance local frontogenesis/pressure falls with a tight/deep anomaly. In this case it would be better if the northern stream managed to speed up. Differences in how models phase the tight anomaly are likely related to resolution. We see that many times with these srn systems. The diabatic heating also can be a good thing and help pump heights ahead and drive it more north...but that would help when we have a ton of heavy stratiform rain too, releasing latent heat. Pure convection will muck up the advection processes and do what the gfs shows. Will be interesting to see unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd post the MPM qpf photo myself if I had access to it. It's touch to sneeze as 12+ except for the time where your so close to double that. Alas The increased progression is troubling--not to the extent that eastern folks need to give a crap. But, weenies still hold out for for an earlier capture and stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4kM NAM 30-42 inches River east..I know Phil loves this model pic.twitter.com/deC2ja08 not in this set-up...it's on HGH so it handles these things like a 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 About to post this on Twitter/Facebook. Still think the odds of 24"+ are pretty low here in CT at any one location. 20% or so? 18"+ is a 50/50 or so proposition in most areas with 12"+ a good bet. The more "deterministic" snow band TV map in my head is like 15"-25" statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We see that many times with these srn systems. The diabatic heating also can be a good thing and help pump heights ahead and drive it more north...but that would help when we have a ton of heavy stratiform rain too, releasing latent heat. Pure convection will muck up the advection processes and do what the gfs shows. Will be interesting to see unfold. Don't have time to look...what did 00z EC Ens do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 About to post this on Twitter/Facebook. Still think the odds of 24"+ are pretty low here in CT at any one location. 20% or so? 18"+ is a 50/50 or so proposition in most areas with 12"+ a good bet. The more "deterministic" snow band TV map in my head is like 15"-25" statewide. With lollies to 42" in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't have time to look...what did 00z EC Ens do? Very close to the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 With lollies to 42" in Tolland. lollis to a million in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 About to post this on Twitter/Facebook. Still think the odds of 24"+ are pretty low here in CT at any one location. 20% or so? 18"+ is a 50/50 or so proposition in most areas with 12"+ a good bet. The more "deterministic" snow band TV map in my head is like 15"-25" statewide. I still don't understand this. I don't how you can use this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm over 1,000 miles away and I'm freakin amped! Can't sleep and I won't even see a flake Epic storm is epic, I will have to live vicariously through you guys! im sure some of the guys feel the same way when we have tropical systems coming..same nailbiting situation watching models and a little shift screws some people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that band about to hit LI is getting stronger and stronger I wonder if that will continue threw the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I still don't understand this. I don't how you can use this What don't you understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 well..........its time. The usual last minute panic attacks have set in as I stare at a wall of love, a sugar wall to the south. Anyone believing some of the bogus qpf from the models deserves to have a meltdown today. Enjoy the one to two feet of snow in this horrific two year stretch........get out and enjoy it and hug your kids and stop whining jesus christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Furey just showed the RPM amounts in Ct. 37.8 at BDL and HFD and 37.3 at IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eastern LI is starting as rain. But boy it's close. On dual pol the freezing level is like 900 ft AGL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What don't you understand? What are you basing those #'s on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Should i have stayed at uconn lol...Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Furey just showed the RPM amounts in Ct. 37.8 at BDL and HFD and 37.3 at IJD Really? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Should i have stayed at uconn lol If you leave now you can make it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What are you basing those #'s on? All available guidance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 All available guidance! RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like where I sit in this one...should be far enough east to get into the good stuff. Expecting like 16-20", gonna be tense though until we know if the GFS is wrong or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well, lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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