SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow...just amazed right now. Can't believe I woke up to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is even worse than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 down to 999mb gfs was way to weak and I think thats a red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Man nice OES in PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Man nice OES in PWM. Nice wall of snow near the south shore of LI. That's coming in pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice wall of snow near the south shore of LI. That's coming in pretty quickly. It's all about how the euro tries to stall and the GFS does not. There isn't a huge difference until after 06z tonight. My gut still says GFS too far east, but a bit of an eye opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gibbs says GFS already way too far east with low placement based on what's going on near HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I wouldnt say way to far east but ya it does seem east Gibbs says GFS already way too far east with low placement based on what's going on near HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still can't get over the hype over the winds over the interior..Where is CLP getting the idea winds will be gusting 60-70mph inland, as they just reported on Channel 30? There's not going to be many power issues till you get SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still can't get over the hype over the winds over the interior..Where is CLP getting the idea winds will be gusting 60-70mph inland, as they just reported on Channel 30? There's not going to be many power issues till you get SE Yeah I don't know where the wind/power hype is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah I don't know where the wind/power hype is coming from. Gusts 45-50 sure..but that's not going to do much of anything..esp considering all the high wind events we've had the last 6 months. I doubt we see more than 5k lose power inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 31. East wind 9 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. TonightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Blustery, with a north wind 21 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. SaturdaySnow, mainly before 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Those snows in PWM are due to the CF. That may slip south later and part of the reason I thought ne ma might grab a few inches of enhancement.....maybe even here later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can a brother get a push west? J/k Congratulatinos almost everyone. Crusher for most of you--enjoy. Won't be epic out here, but certainly major impact particuilarly if the NAM were to verify (unlikely). LOL if the GFS were to verify! (even that is still a hefty snow, though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah it is wow http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Nice wall of snow near the south shore of LI. That's coming in pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's all about how the euro tries to stall and the GFS does not. There isn't a huge difference until after 06z tonight. My gut still says GFS too far east, but a bit of an eye opener. I agree. Didn't look too close...but it really seems dependent upon how the models simulate convection across the NE quad...and show much wraps N and NW into the warm conveyor belt. The GFS has done better than I expected with the convection forming extensively along the eastern portion of the low near the trough axis/warm front triple point. If the low slides too far east...the influence on the digging northern stream is lost...and instead of the warm conveyor belt spreading west, most of the advection pattern spreads N-NE instead...until it is too late. Pretty crucial next 12 hours. Even a few hours difference on timing of the phase can mean 50+ mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree. Didn't look too close...but it really seems dependent upon how the models simulate convection across the NE quad...and show much wraps N and NW into the warm conveyor belt. The GFS has done better than I expected with the convection forming extensively along the eastern portion of the low near the trough axis/warm front triple point. If the low slides too far east...the influence on the digging northern stream is lost...and instead of the warm conveyor belt spreading west, most of the advection pattern spreads N-NE instead...until it is too late. Pretty crucial next 12 hours. Even a few hours difference on timing of the phase can mean 50+ mile shift. You can see how the convection that's firing south of HSE really drives the GFS depiction. That convection winds up screwing around with the advective processes and you wind up with a pretty tightly wound system that's unable to broaden and push west the WCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Those snows in PWM are due to the CF. That may slip south later and part of the reason I thought ne ma might grab a few inches of enhancement.....maybe even here later on. I just measured 3.0" in the parking lot here at work in downtown Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaper Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3" of ultra fluff at PWM already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Beat you to it, shaper! Back home in Limington there was just a coating of the lightest fluff that ever fluffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3" of ultra fluff at PWM already Nice--obs thread is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan..Furey on air just mentioned they are concerned that the 36 inch amounts might be more common and widespread than just a few locales in CT.. Watch his next wx segment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan..Furey on air just mentioned they are concerned that the 36 inch amounts might be more common and widespread than just a few locales in CT.. Watch his next wx segment Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan..Furey on air just mentioned they are concerned that the 36 inch amounts might be more common and widespread than just a few locales in CT.. Watch his next wx segment Disagree with that lol. I'm blasting Pink Floyd in my office and watching the radar. No need for TV... I'll have more than my fill from noon-midnight today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z nam should make the last of the necessary adjustments with the main items of concern for MBY. 6z was a big adjustment. euro was a bit more progressive with the 00z run. something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Disagree with that lol. I'm blasting Pink Floyd in my office and watching the radar. No need for TV... I'll have more than my fill from noon-midnight today. Do your hands feel just like 2 balloons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Disagree with that lol. I'm blasting Pink Floyd in my office and watching the radar. No need for TV... I'll have more than my fill from noon-midnight today. Comfortably numb? Tips hands felt like two balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4kM NAM 30-42 inches River east..I know Phil loves this model pic.twitter.com/deC2ja08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Do your hands feel just like 2 balloons? Comfortably numb hasn't made it on yet. Radar looks good south of Long Island. It's going to be a nice little burst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You can see how the convection that's firing south of HSE really drives the GFS depiction. That convection winds up screwing around with the advective processes and you wind up with a pretty tightly wound system that's unable to broaden and push west the WCB. Indeed, it was what Phil was talking about with respect to the dominant vortex/anomaly. But yeah, the way convection is developing so intensely far away from the upper low tends to enhance local frontogenesis/pressure falls with a tight/deep anomaly. In this case it would be better if the northern stream managed to speed up. Differences in how models phase the tight anomaly are likely related to resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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