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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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Still can't get over the hype over the winds over the interior..Where is CLP getting the idea winds will be gusting 60-70mph inland, as they just reported on Channel 30? There's not going to be many power issues till you get SE

 

Yeah I don't know where the wind/power hype is coming from. 

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  • :snowing:

  • Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 31. East wind 9 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

TonightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Blustery, with a north wind 21 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

SaturdaySnow, mainly before 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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It's all about how the euro tries to stall and the GFS does not. There isn't a huge difference until after 06z tonight. My gut still says GFS too far east, but a bit of an eye opener.

I agree. Didn't look too close...but it really seems dependent upon how the models simulate convection across the NE quad...and show much wraps N and NW into the warm conveyor belt. The GFS has done better than I expected with the convection forming extensively along the eastern portion of the low near the trough axis/warm front triple point. If the low slides too far east...the influence on the digging northern stream is lost...and instead of the warm conveyor belt spreading west, most of the advection pattern spreads N-NE instead...until it is too late. Pretty crucial next 12 hours. Even a few hours difference on timing of the phase can mean 50+ mile shift.

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I agree. Didn't look too close...but it really seems dependent upon how the models simulate convection across the NE quad...and show much wraps N and NW into the warm conveyor belt. The GFS has done better than I expected with the convection forming extensively along the eastern portion of the low near the trough axis/warm front triple point. If the low slides too far east...the influence on the digging northern stream is lost...and instead of the warm conveyor belt spreading west, most of the advection pattern spreads N-NE instead...until it is too late. Pretty crucial next 12 hours. Even a few hours difference on timing of the phase can mean 50+ mile shift.

 

You can see how the convection that's firing south of HSE really drives the GFS depiction. That convection winds up screwing around with the advective processes and you wind up with a pretty tightly wound system that's unable to broaden and push west the WCB.

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Ryan..Furey on air just mentioned they are concerned that the 36 inch amounts might be more common and widespread than just a few locales in CT.. 

 

Watch his next wx segment

 

Disagree with that lol. 

 

I'm blasting Pink Floyd in my office and watching the radar. No need for TV... I'll have more than my fill from noon-midnight today.

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You can see how the convection that's firing south of HSE really drives the GFS depiction. That convection winds up screwing around with the advective processes and you wind up with a pretty tightly wound system that's unable to broaden and push west the WCB.

Indeed, it was what Phil was talking about with respect to the dominant vortex/anomaly. But yeah, the way convection is developing so intensely far away from the upper low tends to enhance local frontogenesis/pressure falls with a tight/deep anomaly. In this case it would be better if the northern stream managed to speed up. Differences in how models phase the tight anomaly are likely related to resolution. 

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