CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS makes me a little uneasy Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From a well respected met..Enough said Matt Lanza The GFS is an egregious waste of taxpayer money and an embarrassment to the US weather enterprise.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Quite a difference between the mesoscale models and the globals. I think its safe to say the 6z gfs has no idea whats going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the 6z RGEM also trended east for sure. God this is such a stressful hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's not just that it's less qpf...the low tracks outside the BM on the GFS. We must be talking about a 200 + mile difference inside one day of the event. LOL GFS makes me a little uneasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREFs look almost a bit juicier though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREFs look almost a bit juicier though That's good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 500mb between the NAM & GFS @ 21hrs is ridiculously different for such a short time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From a well respected met..Enough said Matt Lanza The GFS is an egregious waste of taxpayer money and an embarrassment to the US weather enterprise.* I giggled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 500mb between the NAM & GFS @ 21hrs is ridiculously different for such a short time period. If anything, it's a compromise between the NAM and the ECMWF so far, based on OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's been consistent though. Not saying its right but it's a definite caution flag in my book. I'm still not convinced this is historic. Major yes... Historic maybe. JMHO but I think the GFS should be tossed in the garbage, look at what it does at 5h, Spurious energy off delmarva moves due east or slightly south of east from hour 9 to hour 18. I think that is completely bogus and wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I giggled This just reaffirms what most folks know..All the GFS does is add confusion..Look at the mets..Everything was locked in and because the GFS is so out there..it's now made them uneasy and confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys in SNE have nothing to be stressed about here unless getting a foot versus two feet is going to break you. Hah... the 6z RGEM also trended east for sure. God this is such a stressful hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 best storm in a year and a half no matter what You guys in SNE have nothing to be stressed about here unless getting a foot versus two feet is going to break you. Hah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys in SNE have nothing to be stressed about here unless getting a foot versus two feet is going to break you. Hah... The RGEM has 1.25-1.5" of liquid for the LHV. If the ratios go right, that could be 12-15" of snow or possibly up to 18" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This just reaffirms what most folks know..All the GFS does is add confusion..Look at the mets..Everything was locked in and because the GFS is so out there..it's now made them uneasy and confused When it's consistent, it makes you wonder. It would be different if it all of the sudden did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Man I just looked at the NAM..lol 3.5 melted qpf NE CT. You just wish that model could be used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow it is ripping out. Almost 2" down. Pure fluff under this 30-35 dbz band. Visibility is quite low in these massive dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When it's consistent, it makes you wonder. It would be different if it all of the sudden did it. But the GEFS have been west and wetter every run..while the op just tiptoes east. When Lanza and some of those guys make posts like that it tells me something anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When it's consistent, it makes you wonder. It would be different if it all of the sudden did it. It's still an outlier though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah that's all passing north of here, but as expected. Wow it is ripping out. Almost 2" down. Pure fluff under this 30-35 dbz band. Visibility is quite low in these massive dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When it's consistent, it makes you wonder. It would be different if it all of the sudden did it. The convection that it goes nuts with... off of HSE is there... the question is how will that convection over the Gulf Stream influence the storm's track. GFS is an outlier for sure... but a huge blow up of convection tracking east off HSE may do some funky things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Man I just looked at the NAM..lol 3.5 melted qpf NE CT. You just wish that model could be used And the NAM is just insane weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But the GEFS have been west and wetter every run..while the op just tiptoes east. When Lanza and some of those guys make posts like that it tells me something anyway True, but with each run you get closer so it gets tough to completely "toss." It still is an outlier..but there has been a subtle trend in all guidance. I do think it's too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MAZ002>004-008>011-026-NHZ011-015-081745- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0002.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE... PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 439 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 True, but with each run you get closer so it gets tough to completely "toss." It still is an outlier..but there has been a subtle trend in all guidance. I do think it's too far east. Well I think everyone thought we'd see a few tickels east. We almost always do at the end. But a few tickles east really doesn't matter for anyone in SNE..West of us ..yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's still an outlier though, right? Its extreme east position is an outlier, however the trend is real IMO. I think the NAM will make a budge east at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well I think everyone thought we'd see a few tickels east. We almost always do at the end. But a few tickles east really doesn't matter for anyone in SNE..West of us ..yes it does If you've locked in 24"+ it matters a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I remember the Nov storm in Philadelphia. The GFS/RGEM/EURO went east while the NAM kept showing the heavy (and thus snow) over me until 12hrs out. NJ ended up getting a foot while I got rain all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 box and necn on board for a massive hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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