CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what a bomb at hr 18-30. Eastern New england getting crush job at 12 sat. low about 30 miles east of the elbow. SE 1/3 of NH and coastal SW maine into ORH and ray area look scary, really alll theway down to bos and pvd. EURO ENS QPF, scooterrrrr!! Cannot see QPF but looks sim to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 All of CT, RI, LI, and MA east of a n/s line thru Worcestor get 3" qpf+ Close to 4" in some cases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no words http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020806&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=035 My eyes kinda popped out of my head there, no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looking at this makes me think the nam qpf amounts might not be far off http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pchg# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looking at this makes me think the nam qpf amounts might not be far off http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pchg# seriously... that thing looks insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looking at this makes me think the nam qpf amounts might not be far off http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pchg# It's the NAM though, and another shift east would take a lot of us out of the mega plume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's the NAM though, and another shift east would take a lot of us out of the mega plume... I think it is pretty similar to the 00z Euro, just higher qpf. I don't think it will come too much more east. Even if it comes a little more, I think BOS-PVD-GON-ISP all get slammed. Only ORH and points west would start to lose out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 there are going to be some epic snow drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 In terms of qpf the NAM probably busts too high. It still has 1.5" out here while most others are clustered around .8" to 1". I figure if you assume 10-1 ratios with the NAM you might be ok. If you take the NAM QPF and then start assuming 15-1 or better ratios then that's just dreaming. Or if you prefer to cut the NAM qpf by a third and then assume 15-1 it would net the same result. looking at this makes me think the nam qpf amounts might not be far off http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pchg# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That 6z NAM run was the most weenie run for the whole region that we've seen so far. The tracks of everything are absolutely perfect for complete ownage of everyone in SNE. It'll shift some more east I think but damn that was a porn run, 2-3 ft for everyone, insane. Congrats everyone on 30-45", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Other than maybe the western slopes of the Berkshires, I'm not sure if another small shift east would even matter in most of SNE. Just the overall qpf probably needs to be tempered a bit toward reality. That 6z NAM run was the most weenie run for the whole region that we've seen so far. The tracks of everything are absolutely perfect for complete ownage of everyone in SNE. It'll shift some more east I think but damn that was a porn run, 2-3 ft for everyone, insane. Congrats everyone on 30-45", lol. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_057.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Talk about coastline remodeling... SLP sits in this position for some 7-8 hours: With winds lashing coastline: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm over 1,000 miles away and I'm freakin amped! Can't sleep and I won't even see a flake Epic storm is epic, I will have to live vicariously through you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this is like something you only see in your dreams!!! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA342 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013.SYNOPSIS...A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAYINTO SATURDAY...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS STORMSHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BYSUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEWENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...345 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. CAN SEEON THE MOSAIC RADAR A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS NEW YORK STATEAND EDGING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS AN AREA OF PRECIPACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOOKING AT SURFACE OBS...THE AREA OVERNEW YORK STATE IS EVAPORATING BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WHICHMAKES SENSE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S AND DEWPOINTS IN THELOW TEENS. THE AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS PRODUCINGRAIN AND SNOW. THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL BE WHAT WILLCOMPRISE OUR STORM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.MEANWHILE...A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDSACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST A LITTLEOVERNIGHT...EXTENDING ALONG AN ARC FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES.THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.SKIES HAVE BECOME OVERCAST...WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THEEAST COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THEAREA THIS MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTSMOVE INTO THE REGION.&&.SHORT TERM /12 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... * A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. * BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...E/SE MA...AND SE NH. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. * SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE STORM MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP 10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN HIGHER DRIFTS. * TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH TODAY... BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY THIS EVENINGS COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY.MODEL CONSENSUS...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH THECONSISTENT ECMWF. GIVEN THIS CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUEDAGREEMENT...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST LARGELYBASED ON THE ECMWF.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHCAROLINA COAST WILL COME TOGETHER EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULAAND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITHTHE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEBROUGHT UP BY VERY STRONG /HURRICANE FORCE OR GREATER/ LOW LEVELWINDS. EXPECT NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO AFFECT ALLOF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.PRECIPITATION...LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY INTOTHE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARM AIR INTRUDING AT THE MID LEVELS WILLBRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OFRHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS WITH A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAINLIKELY ON THE OUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT.SNOW WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE INTO TONIGHT. MODERATETO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY. IT WILL BECOMELIGHTER DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLYTAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THEATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...MESOSCALE BANDING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE THESEBANDS SET UP...2 TO 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE. INADDITION...A SNOWFALL BAND IS EXPECTED WITH THE MID LEVELDEFORMATION ZONE...SETTING UP ALONG THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCECORRIDOR. EXPECT THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILLOCCUR...WITH STORM TOTALS POSSIBLE IN EXCESS OF 24 INCHES.GENERALLY EXPECT WIDESPREAD 18 TO 24 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSSSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THEOUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WITH THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.WINDS...EXPECT HIGH WIND CRITERIA /GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH/ THROUGHOUTTHE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA AS WELL AS NANTUCKET TONIGHT ANDSATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS UP TO 90 KTS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITATIONDRAG AND EXCELLENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS. WINDSWILL GUST FROM AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INCREASINGTO THE COAST TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNEDTREES AND POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF SNOW.PREPAREDNESS...PLEASE SEE THE SNOW BRIEFING PAGE ON WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 new box snow map omfg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Geezus, I Phone just made me jump right out of bed as a weather alarm went off as we went Blizzard Warning here, Checked out euro looks that jog further north then east bumped up qpf here and the 06z nam as well,Now over 2" on the nam and 1.75" or so on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think its safe to say the 6z gfs has no idea whats going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 new box snow map omfg That looks overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think its safe to say the 6z gfs has no idea whats going on It's been consistent though. Not saying its right but it's a definite caution flag in my book. I'm still not convinced this is historic. Major yes... Historic maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Man I can't believe GFS still won't give in. Why is this hobby never easy. Why can we never get 100% agreement?! Because of the GFS I'll be nervous all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's the furthest east, It's a outlier over the others so I think we can actually "Toss" it this time, It's on it's own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS makes me a little uneasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 nam/euro combo maybe? That looks overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow. Unreal..History in the making WWUS41 KBOX 080939 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The OBS don't match up well with the GFS. The GFS is an obvious outlier and may not be the right model for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm so happy I'm not even letting the GFS posts bother me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Flakes flying here 20.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks like it initialized way to weak http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pchg# It's been consistent though. Not saying its right but it's a definite caution flag in my book.I'm still not convinced this is historic. Major yes... Historic maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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