Professional Lurker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So is gc sctewed on this run of the euro? I'll be happy with 1.5" qpf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure if this was posted if so apologies but interesting read from NCEP: ...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERNSEABOARD......POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEWENGLAND COAST... PREFERENCE: SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF THE 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWPRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILLLIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAMHT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGIONWILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOWCENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEWENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURECROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUTTO SEA AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. REGARDINGTHE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND ESP THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BEWEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z GFS...00Z GEMGLOBAL AND THE 00Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 00Z GFS ISCURRENTLY THE FARTHEST EAST OF ANY SOLN FOR THE DURATION OF THISEVENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MDL SUITE. THE 12Z ECENS MEANACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF.THE 18Z GEFS MEAN IS A TAD LEFT OF THE 00Z GFS TRACK. BASED ON ALLTHIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF WITHRESPECT TO LOW TRACK...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER SFC PRESSURES...ESPOFF NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. i dont' think they were counting on the 0z euro shifting. Will see where euro ens are thou, we may be outta of their useful range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z 4km btv wrf DESTROYS NNJ and NYC west long island area 3.5-4 qpf. hits west SNE pretty hard (more S) and then again 2.5 plus from a line from Topsfield Ma to cumberland RI and just BOMBS plymouth country mass, middleboro 4qpf. brockton taunton fall river middleboro. really looks like SE MASS could get obliterated and also parts of w SNE http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php Transferring myself into Cantore's shoes for a sec here..."Holy smoke". Some of these solutions 24-36 hrs out now are like the wildest weenie fantasy storms I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like us interior folk will have to settle for 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I definitely think there is a good chance for a Top 5 storm in Boston given the way it just wails away there, with a non-zero possibility for the record. The conditions there are going to likely be rivaling anything that has been seen in the past. Yeah, I think there's a very good chance at this being a top 5 storm, with a solid shot at coming close to the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Model diagnostic disco updated 144am, we essentially came to the same conclusion: (this is new vs. one posted above) ...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERNSEABOARD......POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEWENGLAND COAST... PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWPRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILLLIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAMHT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGIONWILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOWCENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEWENGLAND COAST LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSINGNEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUT TO SEAAND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.REGARDING THE MDL DETAILS...THE 00Z NAM IS NOW THE FARTHEST WESTWITH THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE 00Z GFS...00Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 00ZUKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 00Z GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FARTHESTEAST OF ANY SOLN FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT WITH THEAFOREMENTIONED MDL SUITE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLYEAST OF ITS PREV RUN AND IS A LITTLE FASTER...AND IT NOW CLUSTERSWELL WITH THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM GLOBAL SOLNS. THE 00Z GEFSMEAN HAS COME IN JUST A TAD WEST OF THE 00Z GFS SOLN. BASED ON ALLTHIS...HPC WILL FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm pretty excited about this over here on the Kingston/Pembroke line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3-Hour TrendCast update for the region: Highest Snowfall totals I have for my selected coverage area: Worcester: 22.1"Boston: 27.8"Providence: 21"Pittsfield Muni: 16.1" Boston Weather Progression: Snow starting by 14Z, then increasing rapidly by 20Z. The heaviest of the snow begins around 23Z and continues through 12Z. Rates will be around 1.4"/hr, with peaks of 2.2"/hr possible, visibility will be less then 1/4mile, winds will be NE at 30G45 to 50Kts. After 09/19Z, snow and wind begin to decrease. Worcester Weather Progression: Snow starting by 13Z, then increasing rapidly by 23Z. The heaviest snow will be from 00Z to 11Z, with average snowfall rates of 1.3"/hr, peaking to 1.8"/hr. In additions, winds NE at 25G40KTS, visby less than 1/4 mile. Full output across the MA/RI area: http://smartwxmodel.net/MA.htm Next update in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This run is kind of a toaster bath NW of dendrite....good move in coming home. f*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah roughly...maybe a shade more. kASH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bed time. Big all nighter tomorrow. Bring it nemo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I hope this blizzard ends up giving eastern SNE and the entire region 6 inches of qpf, all snow, driven by 65 mph winds and the storm stalls out for a week at a position that utterly annihilates everyone up there with meters of wind driven snow. When you guys get sick and tired of diggin' snow and your snowblowers blow a gasket - You know who to call............. Jeb !!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you would think RPM stood for Ray's Printer Model... continues to jackpot Lawrence every run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks like the nam is trying to correct itself a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 nam crushing SNE at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM comes back east, crushes SENE. Widespread 3" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 nam crushing SNE at 18 qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Over 2 inches most of SNE and still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 qpf? Only out to 24 so far, but BOS, ORH, PVD, GON, and all of LI should be 3"+ qpf. LI is already 3" qpf and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 models trending toward GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the nam would be over 2 feet for most of SNE and many areas seeing 3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 without a doubt, this will be the biggest hit depicted by the NAM for SNE yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no words http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020806&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=035 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the nam would be over 2 feet for most of SNE and many areas seeing 3 feet the euro run made me really nervous esp if it was the start of a trend...fifty or so miles is a lot at this juncture...boy i hope the nam is somewhat right at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yep all locations mentioned, BOS, ORH, PVD, GON, and all of LI all hit 3" qpf. LI and SE CT probably approaching 4" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow... just buried... 3-4" QPF lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what a bomb at hr 18-30. Eastern New england getting crush job at 12 sat. low about 30 miles east of the elbow. SE 1/3 of NH and coastal SW maine into ORH and ray area look scary, really alll theway down to bos and pvd. EURO ENS QPF, scooterrrrr!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 All of CT, RI, LI, and MA east of a n/s line thru Worcestor get 3" qpf+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 slept from 1215 until 2 I honestly dont know how im going to fall back asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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