Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 kind of surprised the euor moved east by 50 miles tonite, but no biggie i think? for ME. i mean now that i have computer i will look at my fav meso. 0z hrrr and 0z btv wrf. wonder if euro qpf for bos is still 2.50+ i imagine NYC crew is bridge jumping and i hope these east ticks are over, no need to start shifting east after 7 straight runs You can see the differences now up on Wunder. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 kind of surprised the euor moved east by 50 miles tonite, but no biggie i think? for ME. i mean now that i have computer i will look at my fav meso. 0z hrrr and 0z btv wrf. wonder if euro qpf for bos is still 2.50+ i imagine NYC crew is bridge jumping and i hope these east ticks are over, no need to start shifting east after 7 straight runs why? 1.75"+ as per Earthlight and its colder...no problem here What do you see as the euro's total in the NYC area ? To me it seemed more like 1"-1.25" for the area with the 1.5"+ headed east into LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 why? 1.75"+ as per Earthlight and its colder...no problem here I'd be worried about the jog E in NYC....but they should still do OK. As long as NAM totals aren't expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What do you see as the euro's total in the NYC area ? To me it seemed more like 1"-1.25" for the area with the 1.5"+ headed east into LI I saw about 1.7-1.8 for NYC this run...though there could be some BL issues or slight taint for part of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yea...didn't like that. Now just stop this trend. Only one run to go... I think we can put the models away now. We have our consensus on track...now just to track this real time and watch first hand what happens with regards to the phasing and when and where it starts to stall. Now cast time baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 climo catch up Nemo is Greek for "I give what is due"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 why? 1.75"+ as per Earthlight and its colder...no problem here Only the morons are bridge-jumping here. The reasonable ones always knew our "place" in this whole somewhat-late phase scenario and the fact we are about to receive a very nice snow event is a huge bonus, as just 48 hrs ago we were looking at zero. And the rest of Feb looks very wintry indeed, so the fun is about to begin I think. Hopefully this makes a top 5 for you Bostonians, as a New Yorker I'll always be somewhat pissed at what successes Boston has, but it should be a very noteworthy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd be worried about the jog E in NYC....but they should still do OK. As long as NAM totals aren't expected. I've been saying for awhile I could see NYC being only 5-9 or 6-10 or so in this storm....ONLY....LOL....this winter thats epic but definitely a storm where ISP may see 15-18 inches and NYC/LGA 8 or 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nemo is Greek for "I give what is due"... haha that is so epic +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I saw about 1.7-1.8 for NYC this run...though there could be some BL issues or slight taint for part of that. If you don't mind me asking, does the 2.47 report for BDR in the NYC thread accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you don't mind me asking, does the 2.47 report for BDR in the NYC thread accurate? Seems a bit high...but I go on WSI maps...I know there are other sources. Still a very good hit. I came up with about 2.1-2.2. Still a great hit for SW CT, but just closer to the edge than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Seems a bit high...but I go on WSI maps...I know there are other sources. Still a very good hit. I came up with about 2.1-2.2. Still a great hit for SW CT, but just closer to the edge than before. Thank you! Hopefully the trend stops and this storms still manages to pulverize everybody from NYC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z hrrr looks yummmy http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/ptot60.html precip 2-3.5 over most of SNE (basically 3 from boston S and SE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Some of the most impressive snowfall rates may be on LI for a time Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Seems a bit high...but I go on WSI maps...I know there are other sources. Still a very good hit. I came up with about 2.1-2.2. Still a great hit for SW CT, but just closer to the edge than before. Looks like we're close to 2" in Tolland? Thanks Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wundermap estimate looks like it gives BOS 16-20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good Luck to you all! I hope you guys get hammered!! Please post pictures/videos and keep us updated out in WNY. You guys better get to sleep soon, you have a LONG day ahead of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like we're close to 2" in Tolland? Thanks Will. Yeah roughly...maybe a shade more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure if this was posted if so apologies but interesting read from NCEP: ...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERNSEABOARD......POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEWENGLAND COAST... PREFERENCE: SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF THE 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWPRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILLLIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAMHT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGIONWILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOWCENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEWENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURECROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUTTO SEA AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. REGARDINGTHE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND ESP THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BEWEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z GFS...00Z GEMGLOBAL AND THE 00Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 00Z GFS ISCURRENTLY THE FARTHEST EAST OF ANY SOLN FOR THE DURATION OF THISEVENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MDL SUITE. THE 12Z ECENS MEANACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF.THE 18Z GEFS MEAN IS A TAD LEFT OF THE 00Z GFS TRACK. BASED ON ALLTHIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF WITHRESPECT TO LOW TRACK...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER SFC PRESSURES...ESPOFF NEW ENGLAND BY SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well time to sleep. Hoping to sleep till noon or so so I can pull the allnighter tomorrow. Pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well time to sleep. Hoping to sleep till noon or so so I can pull the allnighter tomorrow. Pumped. This run is kind of a toaster bath NW of dendrite....good move in coming home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wundermap estimate looks like it gives BOS 16-20" of snow. There's always differences in the maps. The #s I was adding up don't quite match what Will was reporting high/low. Don or someone will come along with the specific #s in the morning, we're eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's always differences in the maps. The #s I was adding up don't quite match what Will was reporting high/low. Don or someone will come along with the specific #s in the morning, we're eyeballing it. WSI numbers seem to be fairly conservative compared to the others...I'm sure BOS gets smoked this run....there is not any worry there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyway time for bed. I'm hoping the low really cranks and stalls a touch sooner as these things sometimes do. Also hope we don't see any later closing off, was really looking forward to the epic backside OES stuff that may be going poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This run is kind of a toaster bath NW of dendrite....good move in coming home. Yeah, saw that on weather underground. Def made me happy to come home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wundermap estimate looks like it gives BOS 16-20" of snow. Seems a bit low, I'm going with 20-30 inches in BOS. Lock it in Going to get some sleep now, have a little photoshoot in the snow with an Alfa Romeo. Talk to you guys tmw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WSI numbers seem to be fairly conservative compared to the others...I'm sure BOS gets smoked this run....there is not any worry there. Yeah splitting hairs. I'd like to see it stall a touch sooner. Reason being NNE or NE winds would take it to the next level in those hours post the best synoptic snows. From a MBY standpoint what made 05 so great were the microbands. Hoping this one can pull it off too. LI looks to get smoked for a time Friday night. Will awaken to see the NAM circling powderfreaks snow stake on the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Some of the most impressive snowfall rates may be on LI for a time Friday night. Some of the most impressive snowfall rates may be on LI for a time Friday night. 0z 4km btv wrf DESTROYS NNJ and NYC west long island area 3.5-4 qpf. hits west SNE pretty hard (more S) and then again 2.5 plus from a line from Topsfield Ma to cumberland RI and just BOMBS plymouth country mass, middleboro 4qpf. brockton taunton fall river middleboro. really looks like SE MASS could get obliterated and also parts of w SNE http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I definitely think there is a good chance for a Top 5 storm in Boston given the way it just wails away there, with a non-zero possibility for the record. The conditions there are going to likely be rivaling anything that has been seen in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Andy thanks for posting the ncep diagnostic I didn't see the later one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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