Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a tick E through 24...all of SNE in heavy snow at this point except maybe far NW spots. It's fine, we're forming a consensus. Euro stalls out a little further north this run. Like all the others tonight aside of the NAM. It budged a little. With 30-36 hours to go, I really hope the progressive jogs are done but I have a hunch they're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Crush job for eastern New England...def cuts back to the SW though down near SW CT and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wouldn't a slight shift east move some of the bigger areas being forecasted just west of Boston more into the Boston area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Crush job for eastern New England...def cuts back to the SW though down near SW CT and NYC. We still over 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sounds absolutely perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Crush job for eastern New England...def cuts back to the SW though down near SW CT and NYC. meh, I'm a greedy bastard so this still makes me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's fine, we're forming a consensus. Euro stalls out a little further north this run. Like all the others tonight aside of the NAM. It budged a little. With 30-36 hours to go, I really hope the progressive jogs are done but I have a hunch they're not. Seems like these "long duration" events almost always end up more progressive than progged -- but maybe that's just my perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 over 2" for E MA...def stalls this further E....not good for far W areas and SW areas. BOS is under a death band between 12z and 18z Sat looking at the ML features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still prolific amounts? 2"+? yes, for eastern areas especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where we lose some of the piling on...like the other models it's stalling/wobbling further ENE this run. So we're not getting hit as hard at 42 hours as last run. The low is 50 or so miles further east at least eyeballing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Crush job for eastern New England...def cuts back to the SW though down near SW CT and NYC. oy vay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 over 2" for E MA...def stalls this further E....not good for far W areas and SW areas. BOS is under a death band between 12z and 18z Sat looking at the ML features. Boom, EMA lucking out with a 2 foot storm still by the sound of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the matter comes down to some really simple factors. The consensus track has been at a hair inside of BM from pretty much every reliable forecaster. Euro first nailed the bomb and track days ago and stood out on a limb alone for awhile. Since then every model has played catchup while the euro stays consistent. The consistency and expertise of the euro over other models traditionally has to be taken into consideration. The only bones thrown into the equation have really been the gfs and nam. Nam is a very hit or miss model overall. We have seen time and time before that model go crazy with handling convection and just over amping the hell out of a system. Great example of this are the ridiculous astronomical numbers of qpf on 0z nam for NJ/NYC. Definitely a red flag. Interesting to note that nam stalls and occludes the low and still buries eastern areas. Tough to predict a stall, but nice to see potential modeled. Then there is the gfs which is way east. Likely too progressive and fast with the system as tip noted. Taking these things into consideration and realizing this is only one model suite and it could easily be just problems with handling convection is key to what you should be thinking for now: ride middle ground with 12z euro and see what 0z shows. I don't think it will move west. Maybe a tick east. Prolific totals but slightly lower. It's like you never read this statement: "We seem to be forgetting that the GFS schooled the ECM for over month" ...particularly as it pertains to the middle range. I'm not suggesting the ECM shouldn't be acknowledged here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Everyone from ORH eastward is still over 2" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wouldn't a slight shift east move some of the bigger areas being forecasted just west of Boston more into the Boston area? Not necessarily. I think a lot of those maps were accounting for traditional elevation advantage. Not that I think it comes into play as much as normal in this storm. Oes will maybe even or take possible advantage over it for a major storm like this. But easterly shifts would bring deform death bands closer. Mid level bands would stay out west from us in any scenario. We will see low level stuff that will still give us prolific totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yes, for eastern areas especially Cool, so I'm guessing about 2" even for ORH, I'll take it. 20-24" on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Seems like these "long duration" events almost always end up more progressive than progged -- but maybe that's just my perception. Yeah and unlikely that the bump is done JMHO. Nice storm, should be plenty of ocean enhancement/banding too. Biggest in a long time. No more bumps east or ENE please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So what's Qpf like back to CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CT river areas and southwest def got a pretty decent cutback this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Everyone from ORH eastward is still over 2" this run. Sorry to be a blatant douch*....but after what we over here have gone through starting with Oct 2011, I'm glad. E NE special en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's like you never read this statement: "We seem to be forgetting that the GFS schooled the ECM for over month" ...particularly as it pertains to the middle range. I'm not suggesting the ECM shouldn't be acknowledged here. Eh.. gfs has gotten better. But I'm not anywhere near convinced gfs has better expertise than gfs right now. Euro is on a hot hand nailing this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does the 2" contour make it back to the Connecticut River in CT? In the NYC thread, they're reporting 1.8" for NYC, but that sounds high based on the description here. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Everyone from ORH eastward is still over 2" this run. Final totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That deform band over GC should be over ORH co now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That deform band over GC should be over ORH co now? Yeah looks like it....the banding over E MA in this soltuion would be obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah and unlikely that the bump is done JMHO. Nice storm, should be plenty of ocean enhancement/banding too. Biggest in a long time. No more bumps east or ENE please. Exactly. Starting to feel like a game where the opponent is gradually eating into a big lead, and we just want the clock to run out before they catch us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah looks like it....the banding over E MA in this soltuion would be obscene. I like this better than 12z. Even is 12z goes another tic.....we have wiggle room here, but maybe cutting it tight for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does the 2" contour make it back to the Connecticut River in CT? In the NYC thread, they're reporting 1.8" for NYC, but that sounds high based on the description here. Thanks! No, not up here, though maybe in S CT it does...it moves more NE rather than due N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah looks like it....the banding over E MA in this soltuion would be obscene. Sounds like box nailed their snowfall map from the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does the 2" contour make it back to the Connecticut River in CT? In the NYC thread, they're reporting 1.8" for NYC, but that sounds high based on the description here. Thanks! I think the Euro had like 2.5+ for us on 12z...and now i'm guessing we have roughly 1.5+. Somebody who has viewed the model can confirm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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