40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 well ya gotta admit....it has been consistent every 3 hrs like clockwork in its output today. I know that...and it's had a good season, but I can't get 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WGN's Tom Skilling just showed this snowfall map for your region - thought I'd share another models take on the blizzard. rpm_NE.jpg The reason he's looking rather confused is he thought for a moment that city with the 40.3" was Chicago, then realized he was talking about the Northeast. Kidding of course. If you ask me, lean towards the middle solutions like the Euro, they will be less likely to let you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 More than what Tolland gets....19-24"...well call it 21"...don't hold me to it.I wouldn't , thanks that's my ball park . Hoping a weenie gravity wave band pushes me to 30, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you back in Boston? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Certainly not this one though, lol. Euro absolutely mauled all other guidance in seeing this one early. It literally was on its own for like 3 or 4 runs, lol. It had this at like D10 or 11 though - then it disappeared. that's all I was hitting at. I like the model because if I see a teleconnector modality going on, and the gfs lands a system in the midst that is supported at a long lead, sometimes even the Euro doesn't have it... What happens? the system then gets engineered by the Euro, and everyone either forgets the GFS flagged it at obscenely long leads, or, just never noticed. It just sucks that the GFS then loses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really feel we've done our part to make this happen. Time for mother nature to bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It had this at like D10 or 11 though - then it disappeared. that's all I was hitting at. I like the model because if I see a teleconnector modality going on, and the gfs lands a system in the midst that is supported at a long lead, sometimes even the Euro doesn't have it... What happens? the system then gets engineered by the Euro, and everyone either forgets the GFS flagged it at obscenely long leads, or, just never noticed. It just sucks that the GFS then loses it. Well the GFS has 4 runs per day so it almost always has some sort of threat within 36 hours of the actual storm at verification at anywhere from 11-15 days lead time when you search through the runs....I don't put an ounce of stock in it. I care more about the medium range of D4-7 where the Euro destroyed guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just for kicks in the ten minutes before the Euro. The CRAS says congrats Rick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And the new JMA. I don't have the in between panels but this appears SE. I'll be surprised (but happy) if the Euro isn't a little toned down from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just for kicks in the ten minutes before the Euro. The CRAS says congrats Rick. Probably another great sign for Boston...when the CRAS is only out to ALB...usually it might be out toward Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not sure what model(s) this Wunderground blog forecast is based on, but it was updated Friday 12:39am: (posted on their blog by Shaun Tanner(?)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well the GFS has 4 runs per day so it almost always has some sort of threat within 36 hours of the actual storm at verification at anywhere from 11-15 days lead time when you search through the runs....I don't put an ounce of stock in it. I care more about the medium range of D4-7 where the Euro destroyed guidance. This time, sure - but I outlined why that is. There times when the GFS will perform better, like ...when the flow is progressive? We seem to be forgetting that the GFS schooled the ECM for over month - why is that? Is it because we have a storm? That's a bit like selective acceptance there. I admit that as the flow relaxes the GFS is less reliable. The question really should be, why is the GFS always speeding things along. But we are getting into a model bias discussion. At hand, the GFS is probably not handling the convective nature of this prior to inclusion of the N stream, very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And the new JMA. I don't have the in between panels but this appears SE. I'll be surprised (but happy) if the Euro isn't a little toned down from earlier. I think there will be a very slight nudge east on the 00z ECMWF. Observations would support that, and even a tiny shift E with the southern low can alter the track a bit more by the time you head up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not sure what model(s) this Wunderground blog forecast is based on, but it was updated Friday 12:39am: (posted on their blog by Shaun Tanner(?)) Nemo_Fct_Total.png What a horrific color code...all different shades of blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What a horrific color code...all different shades of blue. until you get to like 60".... it's a very useful color scheme for the Aleutian mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think there will be a very slight nudge east on the 00z ECMWF. Observations would support that, and even a tiny shift E with the southern low can alter the track a bit more by the time you head up the coast. Yeah, it was a little west through this evening of actual per SPC. But who knows it could pull a NAM too. Everyone discounts the NAM again, it could be right LOL. JMA just updated. Euro time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What a horrific color code...all different shades of blue. I guess they dont want people thinkings its rain or volcanic lava Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Weenie flakes falling in Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro looks a shade east through 12 hours...this will very likely not make a difference in E MA, but for SW areas it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a tick E through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro looks a shade east through 12 hours...this will very likely not make a difference in E MA, but for SW areas it could. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 East at 24 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Circulation on NC coast: Water vapor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a tick E through 24...all of SNE in heavy snow at this point except maybe far NW spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This time, sure - but I outlined why that is. There times when the GFS will perform better, like ...when the flow is progressive? We seem to be forgetting that the GFS schooled the ECM for over month - why is that? Is it because we have a storm? That's a bit like selective acceptance there. I admit that as the flow relaxes the GFS is less reliable. The question really should be, why is the GFS always speeding things along. But we are getting into a model bias discussion. At hand, the GFS is probably not handling the convective nature of this prior to inclusion of the N stream, very well. I think the matter comes down to some really simple factors.The consensus track has been at a hair inside of BM from pretty much every reliable forecaster. Euro first nailed the bomb and track days ago and stood out on a limb alone for awhile. Since then every model has played catchup while the euro stays consistent. The consistency and expertise of the euro over other models traditionally has to be taken into consideration. The only bones thrown into the equation have really been the gfs and nam. Nam is a very hit or miss model overall. We have seen time and time before that model go crazy with handling convection and just over amping the hell out of a system. Great example of this are the ridiculous astronomical numbers of qpf on 0z nam for NJ/NYC. Definitely a red flag. Interesting to note that nam stalls and occludes the low and still buries eastern areas. Tough to predict a stall, but nice to see potential modeled. Then there is the gfs which is way east. Likely too progressive and fast with the system as tip noted. Taking these things into consideration and realizing this is only one model suite and it could easily be just problems with handling convection is key to what you should be thinking for now: ride middle ground with 12z euro and see what 0z shows. I don't think it will move west. Maybe a tick east. Prolific totals but slightly lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a bit E through 30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Dying to hear these details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a bit E through 30h. How much/how notable we talking? Same speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 All the east talk is making me nervous up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a bit E through 30h. Still prolific amounts? 2"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.