ineedsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 noyes going big time!! http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2013/02/thursday-late-evening-final-accumulation-maps-for-fridaysaturday-storm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If the energy out west didn't look as slow as it does now, I'd say NJ/NY/CT would have the best dynamics. I see this phasing later than what the NAM currently shows, it will be a bomb like the NAM but later east. The Death band is prime for RI/E MA/ SW ME. CT will do good, but I think the best chances for 30"+ will be further NE than the current 00z NAM due to the western energy lagging behind thus a later phase. Just IMO I agree, was just being facetious. I think this forum generally has a better outcome than NYC's, but if we get a good swipe from it it'll be worth it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's VERY interesting, Rollo. It could be contributing to its hugging the coast for so long, because it's getting a diabatic assist by warm air that isn't really there. I won't suggest that means correcting it wildly E by any stretch, but that odd QPF max in Jersey of close to or exceeding 4" liq equiv may be suspect. Yeah it is interesting, figured someone would pick up on it. GEFS are interesting. They have a huge MSLP contour at 00Z tomorrow night off the Delmarva meaning there is still a lot of spread. Then by 12z (someone can check to make sure as I'm on phone) but looked maybe a hair w or sw of the op. GEFS look good. Better than the 12z run, shifted everything subtly NW. They're fine. GEFS/GGEM/UK all seemingly want to stall this a smidge further north than earlier runs. Let's see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 wow 33/23 above freezing and rising fast on due east winds...........yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's VERY interesting, Rollo. It could be contributing to its hugging the coast for so long, because it's getting a diabatic assist by warm air that isn't really there. I won't suggest that means correcting it wildly E by any stretch, but that odd QPF max in Jersey of close to or exceeding 4" liq equiv may be suspect. good find messenger, I overlooked that... Dsnowx53 from NYC: Higher temperatures = higher heights = more amplified = further west = positive feedback towards even more warmth than the initial 2-3 C error would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs is a disgrace right now and should be taken to the wood shed and beaten. Where's barcolonic instability and his latest thinking? I'm wondering what mets like him and phil822 are thinking wrt phasing timing and how the short waves are behaving compared to models forecasts and if were leanin toward a later phase, earlier or no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 good find messenger, I overlooked that... Dsnowx53 from NYC: Higher temperatures = higher heights = more amplified = further west = positive feedback towards even more warmth than the initial 2-3 C error would indicate. All true. and it gets better, GFS doing the same thing: 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE BOTH TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree, was just being facetious. I think this forum generally has a better outcome than NYC's, but if we get a good swipe from it it'll be worth it this winter. Ya LI will still get a good pounding, 12-18" looks like a good estimate. CT generally 18-24" and I would put E MA/RI/portsmouth area at 24-30" will lollies of 30"+ closer to the MA/NH border focused near the portmouth area IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Further west, warmer low , east winds and ghost of last two years stirring for ema tommorrow? Let's pray to anything this isn't overampd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Further west, warmer low , east winds and ghost of last two years stirring for ema tommorrow? Let's pray to anything this isn't overampd Pretty much zero chance...even the obscenely amped 00z nam gave BOS like 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Further west, warmer low , east winds and ghost of last two years stirring for ema tommorrow? Let's pray to anything this isn't overampd I think you're reading that the wrong way. Initially warmer temps would feed back towards potentially more western tracks (not being correct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think you're reading that the wrong way. Initially warmer temps would feed back towards potentially more western tracks (not being correct). Yes. There isn't much support for a NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well its euro for me then bed. Will your not allowed to go anywhere, or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Both the NAM and GFS had initial temps which were too warm. So naturally...they diverged and reached completely different conclusions. Ahhhh clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that hp north of us is the best friend we have had for 2 years and it really means business. where we are, taint or worse is not even an issue. Further west, warmer low , east winds and ghost of last two years stirring for ema tommorrow? Let's pray to anything this isn't overampd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Both the NAM and GFS had initial temps which were too warm. So naturally...they diverged and reached completely different conclusions. Ahhhh clarity. A lot of that stuff doesn't mean a whole lot anyway unless its directly feeding into the core processes of the low development and track...which it probably isn't aside from minor details. Minor details aren't that important for a chunk of the region....for the areas like near BDR, minor details might be more important. For a place like BOS, it really doesn't seem to matter what solution is spit out, they get 2 feet of snow...maybe 15-18" on the obscenely east GFS which is very likely too far east anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This might be the lowest stress I've ever had before a big one living here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thx guys. 2 things. I wasn't concernd about ptype issues tomm nite was jus wonderin if it was issue just tomm late afternoon/early eve over ema, that's all. And yes I did read that wrong, another poster post'd something that I mistook for meaning the system was gonna go more west. I'm hoping for a stall in the sweet spot for ema and track as well. So were gefs west of op? And what was gefs qpf for say bos. I'm on mobile which is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This might be the lowest stress I've ever had before a big one living here. you back in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pretty much zero chance...even the obscenely amped 00z nam gave BOS like 2 feet of snow. DT buys the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 First OES bands Phil talked about earlier forming and heading towards Boston/North Shore http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 while we wait for a verdict... the disparity for some sites is ridic... 0z NAM vs. GFS Bufkit: kewr 32.1 vs. 7.1 <--- lol kbos 28.7 vs. 16.0 korh 23.0 vs. 11.4 klwm 25.8 vs. 19.6 kpym 26.2 vs. 14.2 kbdl 19.6 vs. 8.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs is a disgrace right now and should be taken to the wood shed and beaten. Where's barcolonic instability and his latest thinking? I'm wondering what mets like him and phil822 are thinking wrt phasing timing and how the short waves are behaving compared to models forecasts and if were leanin toward a later phase, earlier or no idea Perhaps for now ... but let's be fair. It's more popular to bash Americans - ha ha - but the progressivity is leaving the pattern some what, and that puts the GFS at a disadvantage. It's not free pass - no - but, during the last 45 days of winter, the GFS actually schooled all other models The GFS is not THAT bad of a model. It just has a bit of a progressive bias; if we can learn to live with that than it's really not all that bad. It does tend to also sniff threats out very early in the game. It has its place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 William my fine young man vise to your wedding ring finger, NE ct me to Woodstock NECT Modfan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Perhaps for now ... but let's be fair. It's more popular to bash Americans - ha ha - but the progressivity is leaving the pattern some what, and that puts the GFS at a disadvantage. It's not free pass - no - but, during the last 45 days of winter, the GFS actually schooled all other models The GFS is not THAT bad of a model. It just has a bit of a progressive bias; if we can learn to live with that than it's really not all that bad. It does tend to also sniff threats out very early in the game. It has its place. Certainly not this one though, lol. Euro absolutely mauled all other guidance in seeing this one early. It literally was on its own for like 3 or 4 runs, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 while we wait for a verdict... the disparity for some sites is ridic... 0z NAM vs. GFS Bufkit: kewr 32.1 vs. 7.1 <--- lol kbos 28.7 vs. 16.0 korh 23.0 vs. 11.4 klwm 25.8 vs. 19.6 kpym 26.2 vs. 14.2 kbdl 19.6 vs. 8.3 26" or 20" here....crushed, or crushed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 William my fine young man vise to your wedding ring finger, NE ct me to Woodstock NECT Modfan? More than what Tolland gets....19-24"...well call it 21"...don't hold me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs is a disgrace right now and should be taken to the wood shed and beaten. Where's barcolonic instability and his latest thinking? I'm wondering what mets like him and phil822 are thinking wrt phasing timing and how the short waves are behaving compared to models forecasts and if were leanin toward a later phase, earlier or no idea Everything is on track, but the southern low is slightly more offshore than modeled by the ECMWF. A very slight shift eastward in track from the 12z EC is possible. I am on a midnight shift here in AK with our own storm brewing though...won't have much time to look at things tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 well ya gotta admit....it has been consistent every 3 hrs like clockwork in its output today. DT buys the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not an endorsement of the model, LOL, but the MM5 is passing very close to the BM this run. Pretty good consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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