TheSnowman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Messenger, the RGEM and GFS are vastly different...the QPF max may still be in E Ma, but its a prolific producer on the RGEM with th eupper levels closing off and stalling the storm near the BM...GFS does not stal the storm like that....big difference in the upper levels. I consider upper level analysis to be way more important than what the QPF is spitting out....RGEM would be a historic storm, GFS would be a major storm, but not historic. Paul said Screw the GFS. And the NAM is crappy as much as I'd like to believe some of it. Go with the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That uncle graphic where you miss the qpf output on the 6 hour intervals suggests a heckuva whomping.. I hope you get a 1978. You deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I was explaining to some of the guys in the upstate ny thread how this a weird one. It's basically a Miller A/B hybrid. Normally u see the primary snows further south over Ohio/PA with a relatively strong primary from a diving clipper/mauler. This one has a pretty weak low riding north..so that that heaviest snow falls from Central Michigan through YYZ/Lake Ontario/eastward. In this particular case, an earlier phase is better for WNY so the dying primary/deformation axis doesn't fly east and the flow reverses as the coastal develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 wow gap between euro/nam and gfs is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Paul said Screw the GFS. And the NAM is crappy as much as I'd like to believe some of it. Go with the EURO. That was an awesome line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Messenger, the RGEM and GFS are vastly different...the QPF max may still be in E Ma, but its a prolific producer on the RGEM with th eupper levels closing off and stalling the storm near the BM...GFS does not stal the storm like that....big difference in the upper levels. I consider upper level analysis to be way more important than what the QPF is spitting out....RGEM would be a historic storm, GFS would be a major storm, but not historic. What's dramatically different at 36 hours? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_036_850_vort_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_036_700_rh_ht.gif vs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif RGEM appears to be a little closer, but what am I missing? I'm asking because in comparing the two packages - it's tough when they're not the same overlay etc. I'm sure you have better data. The GEFS will probably be fine, but I'm still not seeing what all the excitement was in the eastern 1/2 of the area vs earlier OP GFS runs. I don't believe even the QPF change was all that dramatic. Every model is still a great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at this shellacking! GGEM..lol gfs counterpart and wants no part of its output tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't think there's any doubt that euro stays the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One thing to be careful about is ratios outside of banding. The nam has portland ME down to 9 degrees 12z saturday. Doesn't necessarily mean high ratios. Could still be just 10:1 outside of good dendritic growth.Especially with dendrite-destroying wind, as others have pointed out. And I can vividly picture the radar returns showing the best banding just SE of us. My novice gut is telling me that PWM ends up with around 16-18", which will be a great storm (esp for this season) but not historic by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I've seen gfs do this in every event. 1/22/05 it had 2-4 until the final 1-2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Especially with dendrite-destroying wind, as others have pointed out. And I can vividly picture the radar returns showing the best banding just SE of us. My novice gut is telling me that PWM ends up with around 16-18", which will be a great storm (esp for this season) but not historic by any stretch. Well 16-18" is a top 20 type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think this storm goes BOOM like the boxing day blizzard, except when this does it will be over E Ma, RI, SW Maine instead of NJ. I can see NAM solution, but further North and East. This has Number 1 Historic snowstorm written all over for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I was explaining to some of the guys in the upstate ny thread how this a weird one. It's basically a Miller A/B hybrid. Normally u see the primary snows further south over Ohio/PA with a relatively strong primary from a diving clipper/mauler. This one has a pretty weak low riding north..so that that heaviest snow falls from Central Michigan through YYZ/Lake Ontario/eastward. In this particular case, an earlier phase is better for WNY so the dying primary/deformation axis doesn't fly east and the flow reverses as the coastal develops. There are a lot of the big KU storms are Miller A/B hybrids. Miller As usually still have an inverted troff axis over the western apps and Miller Bs usually still have a weak coastal. 2/52010 was a tie between the two lows.1996 the coastal was only 4 MB deeper. By the time it gets to SNE it's all one big low! The only difference is how it got there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can we get 12 runs of the Euro showing basically the sane thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think this storm goes BOOM like the boxing day blizzard, except when this does it will be over E Ma, RI, SW Maine instead of NJ. I can see NAM solution, but further North and East. This has Number 1 Historic snowstorm written all over for Boston. What a lovely thought to send me off to bed. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah, especially with 50 kt winds just above the sfc. Sometimes it's a good thing to be away from the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can we get 12 runs of the Euro showing basically the sane thing? Well it has been doing this with the consistency of you-know-what back in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Especially with dendrite-destroying wind, as others have pointed out. And I can vividly picture the radar returns showing the best banding just SE of us. My novice gut is telling me that PWM ends up with around 16-18", which will be a great storm (esp for this season) but not historic by any stretch. We'll need around 20" to crack the top 10. I'm not really sure how people especially on the coast are going to be able to measure accurately anyway come sat morning with 50+ mph gusts whipping the snow all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sometimes it's a good thing to be away from the high winds. rationalizing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well 16-18" is a top 20 type storm. Touché. Getting greedy and losing perspective amidst all the ridiculous numbers being thrown around. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sometimes we have to just keep it simple and not to forget to look at what is happening in real time in the radar down south. there is almost a direct northerly movement and you can easily detect the circulation. As that is captured by the northern s/w it is hard to imagine the gfs placement of the surface low to be correct significantly east of where it is now while the nam and euro placement appear to be spot on. we will soon see. I don't think there's any doubt that euro stays the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GGEM is wetter and a hair NW of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think this storm goes BOOM like the boxing day blizzard, except when this does it will be over E Ma, RI, SW Maine instead of NJ. I can see NAM solution, but further North and East. This has Number 1 Historic snowstorm written all over for Boston. Waaahhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS does appear to be suffering some convective feedback with convection over the Atlantic. Very different from 18z. Convection is going to cause some issues... but it may be causing some problems with these progs as well. Agreed! Good post, Ryan. The delicate handling of the internal convective process on-going with the southern stream impulse are going to be inherently handled superior by the meso/non-hydrostatic solution, and all that lift getting an assist by n stream introduced Q forcing is likely haul the low a bit further West. It's no wonder the GFS is an outside slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the 00z RPM gives Ray 50", lol. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Waaahhh... If the energy out west didn't look as slow as it does now, I'd say NJ/NY/CT would have the best dynamics. I see this phasing later than what the NAM currently shows, it will be a bomb like the NAM but later east. The Death band is prime for RI/E MA/ SW ME. CT will do good, but I think the best chances for 30"+ will be further NE than the current 00z NAM due to the western energy lagging behind thus a later phase. Just IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. That's VERY interesting, Rollo. It could be contributing to its hugging the coast for so long, because it's getting a diabatic assist by warm air that isn't really there. I won't suggest that means correcting it wildly E by any stretch, but that odd QPF max in Jersey of close to or exceeding 4" liq equiv may be suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Great analysis ongoing and forthcoming. A quick thought wherever the pivot-point is in the Megaband will be ground-zero regardless of model QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GEFS are interesting. They have a huge MSLP contour at 00Z tomorrow night off the Delmarva meaning there is still a lot of spread. Then by 12z (someone can check to make sure as I'm on phone) but looked maybe a hair w or sw of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.