OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I've been riding it pretty hard...any harder and the bed will break. make sure u wear a raincoat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 80% Euro, 19% GFS, 1% NAM... stir until lumpy and white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, there will probably be a tighter gradient than what we currently show. I'd also like to see the ec take the sfc low over ACK or the cape to get the good banding in here. As of right now it looks like the intense mesoscale banding would stay just to the east or southeast of PWM. May make a brief appearance. Do you think there is a fairly high chance for thundersnow in the banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This wouldn't be a storm without some period of freaking out! The only thing that would put everyone at ease would be if the GFS, NAM and Euro all had the same solution 48 hours before the storm and stayed the course, course it never happens. The Euro has been remarkably consistent compared to the other models. I remember when it was the only model showing a big storm 4 runs in a row Will said you have to pay attention to it since it kept showing the storm even though it was alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 make sure u wear a raincoat. and snow boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 For any bridge jumpers, the NOGAPS basically matches the GFS and is 4mb stronger at 24 hours, that right there is likely a big red flag against the GFS....again not saying believe the NAM but don't believe the GFS either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12-24. Really we are in a spot not so effected by the wobbles. I assume the 12 is for the GFS? Seems a bit low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 make sure u wear a raincoat. Yeah the euros been around...community bicycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Huge discrepancies between you guys and BTV. Any word on how that'll be resolved? It is what it is at this point. Dry air and downsloping probably eats into our totals some, banding and ratios bump theirs up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Do you think there is a fairly high chance for thundersnow in the banding? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 allaying the doubts... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UT...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ...POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM HT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGION WILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOW CENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUT TO SEA LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE THEN INVOF THE BENCHMARK FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...BEFORE THEN PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. REGARDING THE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 18Z GFS...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 12Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z ECENS MEAN ACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THE 18Z GFS. BASED ON ALL THIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The only thing that would put everyone at ease would be if the GFS, NAM and Euro all had the same solution 48 hours before the storm and stayed the course, course it never happens. The Euro has been remarkably consistent compared to the other models. I remember when it was the only model showing a big storm 4 runs in a row Will said you have to pay attention to it since it kept showing the storm even though it was alone. It's very difficult to get that kind of consistency...even though we are within 24-HR's there are still issues the models will have trouble resolving and then you add in the process of convective feedback and that is a killer for the models and would have major implications with low placement, track, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I assume the 12 is for the GFS? Seems a bit low. No. Calling 12-24 is a major dump and that's whats coming. Don't get too wrapped up in the minutia. Gfs probably 14-20 Nam 20-26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 80% Euro, 19% GFS, 1% NAM... stir until lumpy and white you should have about 80% Euro, 19% NAM, 1% GFS...IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yes. SWEET!!!! Same here. I missed all the thunder/lightning in the Oct snowstorm here b/c I was in VT. I hope I see thunder/lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It is what it is at this point. Dry air and downsloping probably eats into our totals some, banding and ratios bump theirs up some. That's kind of what I figured. Just wasn't sure about inter office communication on stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 allaying the doubts... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UT...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ...POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM HT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGION WILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOW CENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUT TO SEA LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE THEN INVOF THE BENCHMARK FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...BEFORE THEN PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. REGARDING THE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 18Z GFS...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 12Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z ECENS MEAN ACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THE 18Z GFS. BASED ON ALL THIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF ATTM. No real mention of the new models other than the 0z NAM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Time for bed. Heavy heavy snow, heavy heavy beer, and heavy heavy diapers...all tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Stumbled out of the gate. Call it Barbaro Glad I'm not the only one wondering what's up with that. I can envision a westerly caputre that's further north than the NAM, and likely east of that as well. Is that EC? I'm not sure. But, I'm hard-pressed to find this as something that plays east. Just don't see it. Off to bed now--I'll see how wrong I am in 6 hours, hopefully with the ground whitened. Totally agree. I think the NAM is way to early in its phasing phase. However I can see how the NAM comes up with this solution. I think with the western energy slightly behind, a later capture is in order. I don't see the GFS solution or the NAM solution as being right. Something along a hybrid Euro/NAM solution. Somebody is going to see 30"+ and If I were a betting man, that area would be Eastern Mass, RI, extreme SW Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's kind of what I figured. Just wasn't sure about inter office communication on stuff like that. More discussion revolved around headlines than exact numbers. The point is that it is a higher impact event, whether you get 16 or 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you should have about 80% Euro, 19% NAM, 1% GFS...IMO Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hey everyone, can someone give me a time frame on when this starts? Suppose to be driving from New Hampshire to Plymouth ma tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One thing to be careful about is ratios outside of banding. The nam has portland ME down to 9 degrees 12z saturday. Doesn't necessarily mean high ratios. Could still be just 10:1 outside of good dendritic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Harv showed two models, one gives Boston 12.8 the other almost 23 or so. He said he favored the higher one. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Messenger, the RGEM and GFS are vastly different...the QPF max may still be in E Ma, but its a prolific producer on the RGEM with th eupper levels closing off and stalling the storm near the BM...GFS does not stal the storm like that....big difference in the upper levels. I consider upper level analysis to be way more important than what the QPF is spitting out....RGEM would be a historic storm, GFS would be a major storm, but not historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That uncle graphic where you miss the qpf output on the 6 hour intervals suggests a heckuva whomping.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you should have about 80% Euro, 19% NAM, 1% GFS...IMO I would prefer that, but the NAM is on drugs with the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One thing to be careful about is ratios outside of banding. The nam has portland ME down to 9 degrees 12z saturday. Doesn't necessarily mean high ratios. Could still be just 10:1 outside of good dendritic growth. Pulverized flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Harv showed two models, one gives Boston 12.8 the other almost 23 or so. He said he favored the higher one. FWIW Yeah he says 16-24+. He's the best met in our area and has been since he broke in and was the only one to ht the 78 blizzard of the tv guys at the time. I remember talking to him once about a month after 78. We were young guys and he was envious of my security being a health professional. Guess he did just fine...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pulverized flakes? yeah, especially with 50 kt winds just above the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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