PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The western energy is sure taking its good ol time. The southern energy looks to be slightly outpacing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My gut says believe the GFS. It has not budged from this more east, later phase idea. Usually by now a model that is an outlier starts caving to in to the others. The GFS is not. I am not a Met but my idea says it is on to something. Big storm yes but there is bust potential here. Sorry, just my thoughts. And basically every other met here says the opposite...just saying. And yeah, with what Scott said...the GFS tends to shear vorts out a ton, not just in this area, but particularly with systems coming across the Rockies/Four Corners region out of the West. This also tends to lead to strongly progressive solutions at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS does appear to be suffering some convective feedback with convection over the Atlantic. Very different from 18z. Convection is going to cause some issues... but it may be causing some problems with these progs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But the Euro has not budged either... and it shows more snow, so guess what I want.... jk I see what you are saying, but it was not long ago that it (the GFS) saw this as a strewn out mess. Of course wait for the Euro. I guess where I'm having a hard time reconciling...to me the RGEM looks very much like the GFS in the sense that the heaviest is being kept closer to the coast. I don't see the RGEM as a compromise between the GFS and Euro...etc... to me the UK/GFS and RGEM at 0z are all in the same camp. Check it out here http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 wxeyeNH, on 07 Feb 2013 - 22:55, said: My gut says believe the GFS. It has not budged from this more east, later phase idea. Usually by now a model that is an outlier starts caving to in to the others. The GFS is not. I am not a Met but my idea says it is on to something. Big storm yes but there is bust potential here. Sorry, just my thoughts. But the Euro has not budged either... and it shows more snow, so guess what I want.... jk I see what you are saying, but it was not long ago that it (the GFS) saw this as a strewn out mess. The Euros been a model of consistency though for a few days, the GFS has been all over the place, easy to me which one to put my money on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Figured I'd ask this, at this point what do the NAM, EURO, and GFS show for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol every 0z run when the gfs goes east a bunch of people start to freak.. good night, no sleep after tonight till Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If the Euro even sniffs the GFS tonight...I don't think that is the case at all though, it has been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm not seeing the trainwreck. I see it dropping max QPF in the same areas as the RGEM and the SREFs. I don't get what the big deal is in the Boston and Providence Metro area and SE. It's right where it's been....1.5+ 2+ etc. GFS still prints out hefty snow. QFP may be down due to the easterly track but ratio's are higher. EMA still on track for 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... what? The NAM has had this storm for a couple of days now. The GFS seemed to be the last to the party IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This wouldn't be a storm without some period of freaking out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LOL, I cannot find it on the FNMOC site, looks like it didn't run? I guess it couldn't take the heat Stumbled out of the gate. Call it Barbaro The western energy is sure taking its good ol time. The southern energy looks to be slightly outpacing it. Glad I'm not the only one wondering what's up with that. I can envision a westerly caputre that's further north than the NAM, and likely east of that as well. Is that EC? I'm not sure. But, I'm hard-pressed to find this as something that plays east. Just don't see it. Off to bed now--I'll see how wrong I am in 6 hours, hopefully with the ground whitened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WGN's Tom Skilling just showed this snowfall map for your region - thought I'd share another models take on the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS looks funny...rips aprt the vort after hr 18. Side with euro. riding the euro here til it's dead...running it right into the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS looks funny...rips aprt the vort after hr 18. Side with euro. riding the euro here til it's dead...running it right into the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's exactly what I was trying to convey in my failed attempt to loop my radar post. Again, it's not looking at the details of the models, but merely looking at what's actually occuring, it seems quite plausible that an early (south/west) capture could take place. I wonder if the bigger issue will be latitude of the phase will be a bigger contributer to impact than the longitude. Just wondering. Nice pre-snow evening out there now. 22.5/5 Yeah watch the Richmond band. If it gets about 50 miles further northwest the GFS is toast. Edit, make that the Delmarva. Big differences start there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what? The NAM has had this storm for a couple of days now. The GFS seemed to be the last to the party IIRC. That's what I'm saying. I remember seeing this on this on the euro Sunday I think it was...then Monday morning I was looking at it in class and some people asked me about the weather this week and I said one model shows a decent storm Friday but it's the only one. I think it was Tuesday I saw a post on facebook from a met that said the NAM is showing something now for Friday as well...and it all went from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 riding the euro here til it's dead...running it right into the ground. Hard to go with anything else with the way it's handled this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Really incredible sides of the spectrum with GFS and NAM so soon to event. So: ride the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 riding the euro here til it's dead...running it right into the ground. Stay the course... I think we're in good shape across the southern CWA, it's those northern zones that have the biggest question marks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 riding the euro here til it's dead...running it right into the ground. I've been riding it pretty hard...any harder and the bed will break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Stumbled out of the gate. Call it Barbaro Glad I'm not the only one wondering what's up with that. I can envision a westerly caputre that's further north than the NAM, and likely east of that as well. Is that EC? I'm not sure. But, I'm hard-pressed to find this as something that plays east. Just don't see it. Off to bed now--I'll see how wrong I am in 6 hours, hopefully with the ground whitened. Well, the southern vort will become more dominant...becomes the big dog in the dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hard to go with anything else with the way it's handled this storm so far. May have to enhance qpf a bit where banding looks great...but as a whole it seems golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Stay the course... I think we're in good shape across the southern CWA, it's those northern zones that have the biggest question marks right now. Huge discrepancies between you guys and BTV. Any word on how that'll be resolved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... What??? for a few days, the euro was predicting this big storm and all along the gfs was a flat as a pancake. gfs didnt catch on until monday. I know the nam has its issues but let's face it, we are in the nam's wheelhouse time frame now and it performs better than the gfs with systems coming out of GOM. I still think a compromise is the best way to go, but if anything, I would give more weight to the nam than the gfs at this moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... what? The NAM has had this storm for a couple of days now. The GFS seemed to be the last to the party IIRC. Not true though....the NAM last night had the storm...but it barely phased, remember ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Figured I'd ask this, at this point what do the NAM, EURO, and GFS show for BOS. 12-24. Really we are in a spot not so effected by the wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Stay the course... I think we're in good shape across the southern CWA, it's those northern zones that have the biggest question marks right now. Yeah, there will probably be a tighter gradient than what we currently show. I'd also like to see the ec take the sfc low over ACK or the cape to get the good banding in here. As of right now it looks like the intense mesoscale banding would stay just to the east or southeast of PWM. May make a brief appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not true though....the NAM last night had the storm...but it barely phased, remember ? I think that's wrong. Maybe 2-3 nights ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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