ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Agree. I really don't buy the GFS...about the same I didn't buy the NAM....two extreme solutions on opposite spectrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 there's a huge difference between what the GFS does and what something like the EURO/GGEM is doing. forget the precip amounts even. it's the vertically stacked system/capture and pivot of the mid-level centers that makes this event potentially historic. the gfs is still a good storm but it's high end potential, regardless of the qpf amounts, is way less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You know it is a good event when the "bad" model run gives you 12-15" of snow. Still, for W CT, there is about a 0.75"- 1" difference in QPF between GFS and the SREF/NAM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ok, so let's say the GFS solution came to fruition, wouldn't the "epic deform band" that everyone has progged to hit the berkshires based on the NAM/Euro simply shift east into the Boston Metro? Isn't it just as good a solution, simply a different way of achieving it? Am I missing something? Yeah, and the Cape would end up getting what Worcester was. Seems fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bottom line I don't think it's made that big of a shift from itself in terms of QPF. Surface track...well that's going to wobble with the convection etc. Not that worried about it. GFS/RGEM are both good. the question to me is...I look at the RGEM and GFS and wonder about how far west all the heavy heavy stuff gets UKMET is fine too. It's not throwing epic totals way west...but it's not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think folks have to get off the nam train. I mean for the last two months people were calling it a piece of crap and now because it shows an epic storm, its the belle of the ball? It's clouding peoples better judgment I think including mine. Southern stream system this time around, much different story...the GFS sturggles mightily at times with stuff coming out of the Gulf and SE. The NAM nailed the early November storm. I agree the NAM is too far west and the GFS is too far east...as Will said I'd go right in the middle of the two right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't think most here are on the NAM train...plenty of us stated reasons why we shouldn't trust it right now. Seems to be getting a lot of air time in this thread. Let's see what the euro says later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's all about consistencies. for the past week the Euro and NAM have been holding very steady with their solutions while we have seen more wobble from the GFS. The NAM/Euro have been much more consistent with the handling of the phasing than the GFS has been. Of course the GFS could be right b/c you never know with phasing but it's hard to argue and go against what has been more consistent. i don't feel like the euro and the nam have been on the same train. the euro has been locked on for about 5 days. the NAM sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 In 2.5 hours we will see if the Euro blinks at all either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really don't buy the GFS...about the same I didn't buy the NAM....two extreme solutions on opposite spectrums. I'd go with the GFS track if the surface high wasn't so far east. That usually tends to pin surface lows closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Seems to be getting a lot of air time in this thread. Let's see what the euro says later. I think people are just amazed at what it spits out... Not sure many are riding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lolz if this thing ended up flopping into a less than epic storm.I think you have said that in one way or another many times today. Relax dude you will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Also, nowcasting, if anything, leads me to believe an earlier phase than what the gfs shows. It largely depend on the upcoming euro, but I would say a middle of the road, euro solution makes the most sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i don't feel like the euro and the nam have been on the same train. the euro has been locked on for about 5 days. the NAM sucks. One of these days it'll be right again, but today doesn't appear to be that day. If it manhandles this system with that ridiculous QPF total in NJ....lol. One thing in both the GFS and UKMET...they're moving. Both stall the low pretty far ENE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think people are just amazed at what it spits out... Not sure many are riding it. many will ride anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just a wobble. Keep the course. Take all the models put em all together. Throw out High/Low QPF...E, W track. Middle ground is still a Blizzard. Key is in nowcast as to how the systems phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS looks funny...rips aprt the vort after hr 18. Side with euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NECN's lil map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 It would be a big deal at this point because everyone's gone balls to the wall with the idea that this will be a region-wide paralyzing blizzard - not just a crush job for a portion of SE NE. Exactly, They are all balls in, The qpf is no diff then 18z, , Its the model that shows the least, .75" which in the realm of this event is paultry.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My gut says believe the GFS. It has not budged from this more east, later phase idea. Usually by now a model that is an outlier starts caving to in to the others. The GFS is not. I am not a Met but my idea says it is on to something. Big storm yes but there is bust potential here. Sorry, just my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM/GFS compromise, aka euro. We're all getting crushed. 20-24+". Enjoy it. Euro will have identical totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM qpf is always inflated. But otherwise it tends to be credible inside a day like this. Of course I like it because it pushes the mega-banding all the way to me. Funny how the NAM is so diff from RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 many will ride anything at this point. The NOGAPS is riderless tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That precip Over the western Carolinas and Roanoke better make a quick right if the GFS is going to verify. That's exactly what I was trying to convey in my failed attempt to loop my radar post. Again, it's not looking at the details of the models, but merely looking at what's actually occuring, it seems quite plausible that an early (south/west) capture could take place. I wonder if the bigger issue will be latitude of the phase will be a bigger contributer to impact than the longitude. Just wondering. Nice pre-snow evening out there now. 22.5/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS looks funny...rips aprt the vort after hr 18. Side with euro. The exact same thing happned on its 00Z run last night, that convective blob that pops SE of the low center at 18 hours is what I think does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 00z GFS snow totals look same 12-18". It's a global model with ~27-km grid cell spacing -- so probably a low estimate pic.twitter.com/549xqIAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i don't feel like the euro and the nam have been on the same train. the euro has been locked on for about 5 days. the NAM sucks. The euro was certainly the first one to pick up on this and has held steady ever since, however, even when the NAM first came into range it was picking up on the idea and while perhaps they haven't been eye to eye they have had similar ideas with regards to several aspects of the storm. I know the NAM has issues with overdoing QPF and such, however, when you look at the NAM at what it's presenting you can see why we could very well see QPF close to these numbers. We'll see times when the NAM spits out QPF and it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. This time it's a bit different. There is incredible moisture inflow, moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic, you have the Polar jet phasing with the sub-tropical jet, rapid cyclogenesis, and closing of lows just to our SE and that would lead to major frontogenesis over our region...so if there was a time where the NAM is onto something this would certainly be a case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NOGAPS is riderless tonight LOL, I cannot find it on the FNMOC site, looks like it didn't run? I guess it couldn't take the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My gut says believe the GFS. It has not budged from this more east, later phase idea. Usually by now a model that is an outlier starts caving to in to the others. The GFS is not. I am not a Met but my idea says it is on to something. Big storm yes but there is bust potential here. Sorry, just my thoughts. But the Euro has not budged either... and it shows more snow, so guess what I want.... jk I see what you are saying, but it was not long ago that it (the GFS) saw this as a strewn out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think you have said that in one way or another many times today. Relax dude you will be fine Nah. I just constantly find the model worries funny with every run. It wouldn't make much difference to me. I needed the gas anyway regardless if I have to start up the generator or use the snow thrower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.