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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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RPM is bonkers. What a weenie model..lol.

Its been very consistent with the max QPF areas the past several runs unlike the NAM.  It just happened to throw in a weenie 40"+ bullseye over Billerica.  Its also not biting on the Boxing Day scenario like the NAM (Heavy QPF in NNJ/NYC).  

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Save the image and attach.

 

Let me try again--and hope it loops.

 

But, unless the southern system can gain latitude and/or longitude, I think this visual shows how an early phase and SW stall is very much on the table.  It doesn't seem to be moving in either direction very much.  Am I off my rocker on this?  

 

No model assessment on my part here--just interpreting what I'm seeing.

post-462-0-89670100-1360293280_thumb.gif

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It does.  The totals I don't think are as impressive as the NAM by any means (don't think there's a 5 spot anywhere in there etc).  This is the way I thought the NAM was going early in the run until it started the crazy left track. 

 

RGEM to me looks similar to the SREFs in terms of where the max snow would be.

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It does.  The totals I don't think are as impressive as the NAM by any means (don't think there's a 5 spot anywhere in there etc).  This is the way I thought the NAM was going early in the run until it started the crazy left track. 

 

RGEM to me looks similar to the SREFs in terms of where the max snow would be.

 

yeah, NAM is whacky, but it's another piece of guidance.. but wow at that radar.. man this is going to dump on us no matter what.

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Funny how the NAM is so diff from RGEM.

 

What do you and WIll make of it?

 

From a meteorological standpoint is there some backing to the idea that the low would spin up and run along the convection to the west?  Without it, that precip just isn't there.  RAP doesn't support it at all either, very similar to the RGEM.

 

RGEM actually...anyone have totals?

 

 

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What do you and WIll make of it?

 

From a meteorological standpoint is there some backing to the idea that the low would spin up and run along the convection to the west?  Without it, that precip just isn't there.  RAP doesn't support it at all either, very similar to the RGEM.

 

RGEM actually...anyone have totals?

 

 

 

The RGEM makes sense to me...I actually am a little surprised it's not a bit NW...but it seems to make sense.

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I'm no expert but the NAM has always been my favorite model. It's sort of a "high stakes" gamble... it often has crazy ideas, and sometimes they are way off, but sometimes it just sees things the others don't. Still, it usually "treats me right". :)

 

Given my (admittedly subjective) impression of how often it seems that storms go west of forecast, I wouldn't be too surprised if the low hugged the coast a bit more than some of the other models say.

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