millpondwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:56 AM, CoastalWx said: RPM is bonkers. What a weenie model..lol. Its been very consistent with the max QPF areas the past several runs unlike the NAM. It just happened to throw in a weenie 40"+ bullseye over Billerica. Its also not biting on the Boxing Day scenario like the NAM (Heavy QPF in NNJ/NYC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Someone post a clownie please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Choquette Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 welp the rpm qpf is off the charts for just east of boston over 5" thats just......how is it that results like this r still coming in?! I'm in such disbelief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:00 AM, CT Rain said: Good news everyone (especially for Kevin) mattmfer is driving from DCA to PVD for the storm. Kevin will have his favorite poster back for Nemo! Stop with the Nemo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:56 AM, CoastalWx said: RPM is bonkers. What a weenie model..lol. Pretty much every model is bonkers at this point it seems--just a matter of magnitude. OT--anyone know how to post a radar loop? I did at one point, but have now forgotten--pm with info please. TIa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:02 AM, moneypitmike said: Pretty much every model is bonkers at this point it seems--just a matter of magnitude. OT--anyone know how to post a radar loop? I did at one point, but have now forgotten--pm with info please. TIa. Save the image and attach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM is out...10mm + over NJ through 24 hours. The 25mm line is offshore of NJ. Not quite what the NAM had. It's about in the same spot as last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:02 AM, HubbDave said: Stop with the NemoYea please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 36 just updated. Nice. It pulled the heaviest just the slightest bit east. but not much. storm itself is a few miles east of the 12z by 12z Saturday...not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 2-3 Qpf region wide is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No way, esp. in the valley. On 2/8/2013 at 2:56 AM, SnowMan said: Us...I think we will get in some good banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the 00z RPM gives Ray 50", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow look at all the precip. associated with that southern storm. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:05 AM, weathafella said: Save the image and attach. Let me try again--and hope it loops. But, unless the southern system can gain latitude and/or longitude, I think this visual shows how an early phase and SW stall is very much on the table. It doesn't seem to be moving in either direction very much. Am I off my rocker on this? No model assessment on my part here--just interpreting what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:00 AM, CT Rain said: Good news everyone (especially for Kevin) mattmfer is driving from DCA to PVD for the storm. Kevin will have his favorite poster back for Nemo! The Blizzard of 2013 or none...unless somebody comes up with something cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:01 AM, weathafella said: Someone post a clownie please? WCVB runs their hour-by-hour verbatim off RPM... here's the most recent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what time does this start CT new haven area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM for those that want to loop through it: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Note there's none of the low running the western line under the convection like the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM looks good http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:18 AM, Bostonseminole said: RGEM looks good http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It does. The totals I don't think are as impressive as the NAM by any means (don't think there's a 5 spot anywhere in there etc). This is the way I thought the NAM was going early in the run until it started the crazy left track. RGEM to me looks similar to the SREFs in terms of where the max snow would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WBZ has TAN area as jackpot. 24-30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:01 AM, weathafella said: Someone post a clownie please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:19 AM, Rollo Tomasi said: It does. The totals I don't think are as impressive as the NAM by any means (don't think there's a 5 spot anywhere in there etc). This is the way I thought the NAM was going early in the run until it started the crazy left track. RGEM to me looks similar to the SREFs in terms of where the max snow would be. yeah, NAM is whacky, but it's another piece of guidance.. but wow at that radar.. man this is going to dump on us no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Funny how the NAM is so diff from RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:22 AM, CoastalWx said: Funny how the NAM is so diff from RGEM. Def gives me less trust in it. Same with it being diff from the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:22 AM, CoastalWx said: Funny how the NAM is so diff from RGEM. What do you and WIll make of it? From a meteorological standpoint is there some backing to the idea that the low would spin up and run along the convection to the west? Without it, that precip just isn't there. RAP doesn't support it at all either, very similar to the RGEM. RGEM actually...anyone have totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 3:25 AM, Rollo Tomasi said: What do you and WIll make of it? From a meteorological standpoint is there some backing to the idea that the low would spin up and run along the convection to the west? Without it, that precip just isn't there. RAP doesn't support it at all either, very similar to the RGEM. RGEM actually...anyone have totals? The RGEM makes sense to me...I actually am a little surprised it's not a bit NW...but it seems to make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm no expert but the NAM has always been my favorite model. It's sort of a "high stakes" gamble... it often has crazy ideas, and sometimes they are way off, but sometimes it just sees things the others don't. Still, it usually "treats me right". Given my (admittedly subjective) impression of how often it seems that storms go west of forecast, I wouldn't be too surprised if the low hugged the coast a bit more than some of the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lows that are convective love to move north along the coastal front near HSE and then curl ENE off the Delmarva. Sometimes they curl a little further north than model have, but it doesn't always occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM looks like it CRUSHED W CT, but still looks different than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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