Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ugh with IE10. NAM has the low right on the eastern edge of the convection as it comes off VA Capes/NC coast later tonight before it gradually ends up a bit east closer to the path of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 1:55 AM, skisheep said: Debating whether to stay up for the EURO, but I think sleep is going to win out, tomorrow night could be an all nighter and energy is essential -skisheep Gonna drop 50mg of diphenhydramine and pass out. Otherwise, it will be impossible for me to get to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The bufkit profiles are insane, at least looking here in northern CT. The NAM during the height of the storm has snow ratios increasing to as high as 15:1 while the GFS gets as high as 18:1 or so...that's ridiculous given the QPF we're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM is going to be absolutely punishing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM might come in a hair west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Any way to determine what areas are most likely to get thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 1:48 AM, ChrisM said: Really only 1" back this way on the srefs?? That's still not too bad given it's the SREFS...remember it's just the ensemble mean so that is still quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:02 AM, HubbDave said: Any way to determine what areas are most likely to get thundersnow? Once we know where the deformation band will setup or traverse over...that's probably your best bet for thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:02 AM, CoastalWx said: NAM might come in a hair west of 18z. yes this east stuff is not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:02 AM, CoastalWx said: NAM might come in a hair west of 18z. It's running right with the convection. It's pretty close to the NJ coast there for a bit, and it's warm, the 0c line at 8h is onshore in CT through to SE MA. Non hydrostatic FTW? It keeps pushing the theme of the low being right along with the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z SREFs cut back about 1/4" or 1/3" back here in CT and W/C Mass. About held serve in SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:04 AM, litchfieldlibations said: yes this east stuff is not even close It's the NAM so it's prone to convective issues (both good and bad). On 2/8/2013 at 2:04 AM, litchfieldlibations said: yes this east stuff is not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 984 at 27 hours. 39.5/71.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:04 AM, litchfieldlibations said: yes this east stuff is not even close If the NAM is right the jackpot is NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow, the NAM is going to be better than 18z for a lot of places it seems lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z SREF also increased % for 12''+ across a large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:02 AM, HubbDave said: Any way to determine what areas are most likely to get thundersnow?Unstable soundings, best dynamics, near dry air. Gravity waves can really blow up someone's totals too. Enjoy the death band. Thanks for the props earlier but nah on the name. Watching the mesos in this is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM looks even stronger, this thing is gonna go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:04 AM, weatherwiz said: Once we know where the deformation band will setup or traverse over...that's probably your best bet for thundersnow Thanks, Wiz. This has stuff for you, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NY/NJ weenies rejoicing already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sref snow probs...42 hours >95% chance if 12+. Impressive for the BOS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:06 AM, CT Rain said: 21z SREFs cut back about 1/4" or 1/3" back here in CT and W/C Mass. About held serve in SE Mass. What do you put more stock in? The nam or srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:08 AM, JGNYK03 said: wow NAM destroys NYC looks like it keeps heaviest snow out of NEW england what? How? It's about to absolutely annihilate CT and MA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On 2/8/2013 at 2:09 AM, grinch1989 said: What do you put more stock in? The nam or srefs? Neither to be honest. The NAM is a huge huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't know, it looked good coming off the coast of VA, then it runs pretty well west as the convection explodes before looping more to the east. That riding left to along the DE/NJ coast has it left the rest of the time. NJ would likely get crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 H27 is a crush job for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What a run...........east of sandy hook. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM mixes NYC for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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