KEITH L.I Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 One lesson for everybody(and I was guilty too)..never give up on event..I learned a big lesson last night..btw NAM was great with this storm within 36 hours and the high resolution NAM too especially for Long Island..the GFS..man they need to fix that thing..it's really inferior for east coast storms..and of course the Euro in the medium range was king again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 One lesson for everybody(and I was guilty too)..never give up on event..I learned a big lesson last night..btw NAM was great with this storm within 36 hours and the high resolution NAM too especially for Long Island..the GFS..man they need to fix that thing..it's really inferior for east coast storms..and of course the Euro in the medium range was king again This observation is somewhat location dependent. The NAM and EC were significantly too far west with the higher precip totals in NJ and PA. GFS QPF was better down there but certainly worse further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 This observation is somewhat location dependent. The NAM and EC were significantly too far west with the higher precip totals in NJ and PA. GFS QPF was better down there but certainly worse further north. Yeah SE PA/E PA and W NJ definitely got the shaft precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Yeah SE PA/E PA and W NJ definitely got the shaft precip wise. I put this in the banter thread over there yesterday, but it sums it up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I put this in the banter thread over there yesterday, but it sums it up: I've noticed the NAM do what it did there often, it takes the CCB and pulls it too much north up the cost as opposed to NE or NNE, if you shift the axis of those heavier amounts and place it more SW to NE it makes much more sense. The NAM seems to often jackpot places in the Hudson Valley which the other models do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The Euro is the big overall winner again for seeing the potent storm system before the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The NAM had a few overphased runs but that's to be expected. I think it did ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Probably. Most forecasts were calling for 24" at most for LI when some end up with much more. I also think the fact that it was raining and sleeting for hours made some people thought it was ok to go out on the roads, and the rain probably caused the DOT to respond late. i live near a major county road... i walk down to it during big snowstorms and have always been amazed at the amount of traffic. my last memory being 1/26/11 around 9pm........ 8 inches already on the ground.... and absolutely puking snow at the rate of 5" per hour... with10 additional inches on the way. and there were a lot of cars driving thru it.... 9pm on a weeknight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 final total 12.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I just pulled into my house in laurel hollow , waited to be plowed out. Theres 2 feet of snow here Huntington next door registered 29. Have 4ft drifts across the entire back of the house Different world from back at colts neck which I expected. Dam I should have stayed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 ...I had 19.0 on the old snow stick here in eastport. and thats with rain from 730p to 930p..dont know if anyone saw the radar depiction at that time..but out of no where this green(rain) blob shows up.rain/snow line at that point was south of me..upon further investigation (NWS forecast discussion).. they blamed it on frequent cloud to ground lighting(over the ocean) which in turn warmed the column...pretty interesting I thought ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The NAM had a few overphased runs but that's to be expected. I think it did ok Yeah, it was all over the heavy precip potential. The interesting thing is that while the NAM had some OTS wiffs in the days before, the 4km held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Someone down east Maine may come out of this with 40 Someone in Hamden, CT reported 40 on the dot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The Euro is the big overall winner again for seeing the potent storm system before the others. Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_144.gif 2013020400f132.gif Where did you get the 2nd image from? What webpage? Thanks sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The Euro is the big overall winner again for seeing the potent storm system before the others. Indisputably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Where did you get the 2nd image from? What webpage? Thanks sir. No problem. There is an archive of past GFS runs here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/opnl/opnl.arch.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/avn/avn.arch.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/MAPS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Floral Park and New Hyde Park underperformed a bit...... I doubt those totals. All other measurements from nearby towns are about a foot, widespread. That New Hyde Park number is always 4-5 inches too low, every storm. i think the guy measures under a bush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 still awaiting a plow on my block in commack. thankful to have power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm guessing KFOK ends up with a low of like -10 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Medford NY had 33.5" wow... highest in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 still awaiting a plow on my block in commack. thankful to have power. Me too. We did see a plow come down are street, but wasn't plowing! Our street has yet to be plowed. Temps dropping fast, down to 24.3 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Hey I made a post in the main weather forum. I would love for anyone to add in their opinions as well ! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/39288-Lessons-learned-from-this-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13As of 9 February 2013 / 5:00 PM ETBridgeport: 51.2"NWS Upton: 39.0"Islip: 37.3" Newark: 20.7" NYC Central Park: 18.8"LaGuardia: 16.1"JFK: 13.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13 As of 9 February 2013 / 5:00 PM ET Bridgeport: 51.2" NWS Upton: 39.0" Islip: 37.3" Newark: 20.7" NYC Central Park: 18.8" LaGuardia: 16.1" JFK: 13.2" Incredible really...just about a half foot off of my seasonal total. I think that we'll probably finish up in the 30-40" range here (average around 30 or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I've reached my seasonal average now with 36" on the winter; I received 17" in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I've reached my seasonal average now with 36" on the winter; I received 17" in this storm. And this is why people should never write off winter snowfall wise in Dec or even Jan. Major reversals have occurred in Feb/Mar. I'm darn near normal now with 27.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 And this is why people should never write off winter snowfall wise in Dec or even Jan. Major reversals have occurred in Feb/Mar. I'm darn near normal now with 27.3". I actually think my house averages 37-38", but downtown is 36" since 1947, so I consider myself to have reached normal snowfall. My house is a little higher up and a little more rural, so we always pick up an inch or two more. 57-58 and 66-67 were the two most dramatic examples of major reversals later in the season. Those winters had 80" and 70" here, respectively, after December and January produced very little snow. I think this year has the chance to be like that if we cash in on the next two opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 And this is why people should never write off winter snowfall wise in Dec or even Jan. Major reversals have occurred in Feb/Mar. I'm darn near normal now with 27.3". What exactly would you consider normal for western Monmouth? I estimate about 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Drove out to northern Suffolk today along Route 25 and WOW!!! Just incredible scenes out there once you get past the LIE/Northern State. That did seem like the dividing line generally between huge totals and less. Seemed like the max was near Medford or just north along Rte 112 on my way back south. I have to make this drive more often, lol. I was almost sad to have to drive back to my "puny" foot of snow. But huge differences in just a short drive. Not sure if I've seen anything like it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I actually think my house averages 37-38", but downtown is 36" since 1947, so I consider myself to have reached normal snowfall. My house is a little higher up and a little more rural, so we always pick up an inch or two more. 57-58 and 66-67 were the two most dramatic examples of major reversals later in the season. Those winters had 80" and 70" here, respectively, after December and January produced very little snow. I think this year has the chance to be like that if we cash in on the next two opportunities. i was very concerned about the warm December but February has worked out fine...we still need about ten inches more to reach average...The Park should have closer to 20" but that's another story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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