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February 8th-9th Snowstorm/Blizzard Event Observations


WeatherFox

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FWIW, it appears that at least at this point in time, the 0z ECMWF is outperforming the 6z GFS when it comes to surface temperatures:

 

12z Temperatures:

 

Bridgeport:

0z ECMWF: +1.4°C

6z GFS: +2.8°C

Actual: 31°F (-0.6°C)

 

Islip:

0z ECMWF: +4.3°C

6z GFS: +5.9°C

Actual: 35°F (+1.7°C)

 

New York City:

0z ECMWF: +2.9°C

6z GFS: +3.5°C

Actual: 32°F (0.0°C)

 

Newark:

0z ECMWF: +2.9°C

6z GFS: +3.3°C

Actual: 33°F (+0.6°C)

 

Poughkeepsie:

0z ECMWF: -1.5°C

6z GFS: -3.2°C

Actual: 31°F (-0.6°C)

 

White Plains:

0z ECMWF: +1.5°C

6z GFS: +2.1°C

Actual: 30°F (-1.1°C)

 

It should be noted that the snow had not moved into all of those cities by 12z, so the Euro seems to have a better idea concerning surface temperature details. Needless to say, the incoming warming at 925 mb and 850 mb will have an impact on precipitation-types, but some areas mainly north and east of New York City might see more sleet than rain if the Euro proves to be more accurate. All areas should transition to snow later on and the transition might be a little faster, assuming the Euro is right and if the storm takes a track closer to that depicted by the ECMWF. New England still looks to be the proverbial epicenter of the storm where the heaviest snows will fall.

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