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February 8th-9th Snowstorm/Blizzard Event Observations


WeatherFox

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Notice the color change from maroon to the oranges and yellows. That's the snow vs sleet and rain line. I'm barely holding on for now but Lynbrook and Woodmere appear to be mixing. a9yne2u8.jpg

 

It'll be interesting to see if this slug of heavier precip moving north brings the warm air with it or changes everyone back over

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Notice the color change from maroon to the oranges and yellows. That's the snow vs sleet and rain line. I'm barely holding on for now but Lynbrook and Woodmere appear to be mixing.

It'll be interesting to see if this slug of heavier precip moving north brings the warm air with it or changes everyone back over

Indeed. I would think initially it would change us back over to snow, but eventually though the warm air will win out for a time.

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Selden is highest point on the island and right smack in the middle- winds are NNE at 5 to 10mph gusting to 15. Snow is falling and accumulating on non paved surfaces. An intense burst of sleet might help to start building accumulations on all surfaces and then change back to snow.

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Selden is highest point on the island and right smack in the middle- winds are NNE at 5 to 10mph gusting to 15. Snow is falling and accumulating on non paved surfaces. An intense burst of sleet might help to start building accumulations on all surfaces and then change back to snow.

 

selden is not the highest point on long island (that would be jayne's hill in melville area), nor do i think any of long island's modest elevation will have any impact on this storm.  that said, snow here and hoping we hang on.

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There's a cold tongue of air which seems to have moved south over NYC metro.  Perhaps coming south out of the Hudson Valley.  This seems to have pushed the rain/snow line into a more east/west orientation rather than the expected northeast/southwest one... which is why its raining in Reading and Gilbertsville but snowing in NYC.

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There's a cold tongue of air which seems to have moved south over NYC metro.  Perhaps coming south out of the Hudson Valley.  This seems to have pushed the rain/snow line into a more east/west orientation rather than the expected northeast/southwest one... which is why its raining in Reading and Gilbertsville but snowing in NYC.

That may also be what is preventing the precip line from being able to advance north, its really having a hard time.

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That may also be what is preventing the precip line from being able to advance north, its really having a hard time.

yes.  I've seen this before, if that's what it is.  NYC will get more snow than expected from round 1, that's obvious.

 

Now IDK if anyone has been watching the precip shield but it sure seems to be having difficulty getting much further NW.  I know I've seen posts about the low being W of expected track but the precip shield doesn't show much sign of it, at least not yet.

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yes.  I've seen this before, if that's what it is.  NYC will get more snow than expected from round 1, that's obvious.

 

Now IDK if anyone has been watching the precip shield but it sure seems to be having difficulty getting much further NW.  I know I've seen posts about the low being W of expected track but the precip shield doesn't show much sign of it, at least not yet.

 

I was saying at work, if the HRRR/RAP are right in 12-15 hours these forecasts are in major trouble.  We won't even see 6 inches.

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I was saying at work, if the HRRR/RAP are right in 12-15 hours these forecasts are in major trouble.  We won't even see 6 inches.

Whats the reasoning for the Rap scenario though. Multiple dependable models for at least 7-10 runs screaming at least 10 inches and now one short term high def says >6 in & we need to sweat it out? would love to understand how dependable how dependable HRRR/RAP is

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How accurate is the RAP?

 

It typically is not good at that range but usually has a chronic west bias, its pretty far east with the CCB now to the point even most of LI would miss out on it.  The RAP does not worry me as much as the HRRR which is handling the current situation very well, the general rule on the HRRR is that if its good at hour 1 its going to be just as good at hour 12.  The good news is the latest HRRR is now west with the CCB more and gets it over NYC....there would be a sharp gradient say between TEB and LGA if that verified.

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