Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though. That looks like a wall of snow on radar, not sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm next door to Rockville Centre, how long a period will we be non snow, a couple of hours or ten hours? Hit 32.0 now back down to 31.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hoping to stay mainly snow on the N. Shore...should be close call...per last night's MM5 run warmest part of storm is aound 9:30 AM or so....and then temps start to cool ever so slowly out here. Continues to snow here at the present. I think you guys on the north shore stay all snow. It's really the low lying coastal plain on the south shore that'll change over. That's good to see the warmest part of the storm is soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though. Yea did you see those Euro temps? They were off by as much as 4C in some parts of the city. I think models were counting on a more easterly or even southeasterly component to the wind and it never got itself established. Winds briefly went to the east on the city stations and then went right back to the NE and temps even dropped a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though. Yea did you see those Euro temps? They were off by as much as 4C in some parts of the city. I think models were counting on a more easterly or even southeasterly component to the wind and it never got itself established. Winds briefly went to the east on the city stations and then went right back to the NE and temps even dropped a little. I did. Models are terrible with boundary layer cooling in the presence of precipitation, and underestimate ageostrophic flow. it wasn't weenish to assume that the models were definitely too warm. However, the winds at 925mb are SE, so I think I'm going to change over to sleet soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still light snow, however, what snow has fallen is melting fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar signature to me shows frozen precip hanging tough north of a line from ~Babylon to ~Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though. ..question DS..w/ a SE wind @ 925mb..how is that a 'great sign' w/ regard to turning colder ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I did. Models are terrible with boundary layer cooling in the presence of precipitation, and underestimate ageostrophic flow. it wasn't weenish to assume that the models were definitely too warm. However, the winds at 925mb are SE, so I think I'm going to change over to sleet soon. i already changed over, to maybe even plain rain. EDIT: back to mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Very light, small flakes here, but think still all snow for now. Solid coating on cars and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though. ..question DS..w/ a SE wind @ 925mb..how is that a 'great sign' w/ regard to turning colder ? It's just a great sign that the models were currently too warm by several degrees. Doesn't mean we won't still see mixing, of course. But I don't think the mixing and rain will last as long as the models said it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light rain/snow mix in Hoboken. Precip type seems to be dependent on intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I did. Models are terrible with boundary layer cooling in the presence of precipitation, and underestimate ageostrophic flow. it wasn't weenish to assume that the models were definitely too warm. However, the winds at 925mb are SE, so I think I'm going to change over to sleet soon. i already changed over, to maybe even plain rain. Makes sense. Correlation coefficient says you're getting sleet, but that I'm literally 2 miles north of the sleet line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Precip intensity has waned, which doesn't help things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow close to changing..light....watching surface winds keep NE please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It all comes down to how intense the CCB will be . Precip amounts tend to grade off pretty rapidly but there should be a lot of convection so its dicey , will wait to see what the 12 NAM thinks because its kind of had a good view on this in the last 12 hrs ( took it long enough ) . If the 12z matches the 0z then its really game on , Because the 27 hr look of 1.5 qpf inside 6 hrs was about the best i`ve seen . The 6z backed off a bit So will look for that signal today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleeting in Frenchtown. Moderatly temp 29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Precip intensity has waned, which doesn't help things. yup - but in general any snow that would fall before 0Z tonight would be big bonus snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 33 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 very small flakes in the air here, bu all wet on the ground now even on the coldest surfaces, 35 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 32.2 in Lynbrook P type intensity based, Ive seen plain rain in the past at 31.5 and now snow here at 32.2 so colder upstairs i guess. As long as we do dont have an 8 hour period of windswept rainI'll be happy, Ive reconciled myself to losing .5QPF but the sooner this is all snow the happier I'll be, just want my 12-18 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 KJFK with rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Precip intensity has waned, which doesn't help things. yup - but in general any snow that would fall before 0Z tonight would be big bonus snow Yeah. I was quite happy to see the snow we had this morning. Nice little surprise. I do think we change back over to snow before 0z though, and maybe even several hours earlier. I'm still somehow holding on to really crappy snowflakes, though, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 all snow here, already 1/2 to 3/4 inch. 30 degrees, DP 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Currently no signs of changing over here. Still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 32.4 in Lynbrook lg snow and now , yeah rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light rain here right now. Coating of snow before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Currently no signs of changing over here. Still snowing. Rain is starting to mix in here..not surprised..it was expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Notice the color change from maroon to the oranges and yellows. That's the snow vs sleet and rain line. I'm barely holding on for now but Lynbrook and Woodmere appear to be mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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