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February 8th-9th Snowstorm/Blizzard Event Observations


WeatherFox

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Hoping to stay mainly snow on the N. Shore...should be close call...per last night's MM5 run warmest part of storm is aound 9:30 AM or so....and then temps start to cool ever so slowly out here.  Continues to snow here at the present. 

 

I think you guys on the north shore stay all snow. It's really the low lying coastal plain on the south shore that'll change over. That's good to see the warmest part of the storm is soon.

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Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though.

Yea did you see those Euro temps? They were off by as much as 4C in some parts of the city.

 

I think models were counting on a more easterly or even southeasterly component to the wind and it never got itself established.

 

Winds briefly went to the east on the city stations and then went right back to the NE and temps even dropped a little.

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Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though.

Yea did you see those Euro temps? They were off by as much as 4C in some parts of the city.

I think models were counting on a more easterly or even southeasterly component to the wind and it never got itself established.

Winds briefly went to the east on the city stations and then went right back to the NE and temps even dropped a little.

I did. Models are terrible with boundary layer cooling in the presence of precipitation, and underestimate ageostrophic flow. it wasn't weenish to assume that the models were definitely too warm.

However, the winds at 925mb are SE, so I think I'm going to change over to sleet soon.

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Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though.

..question DS..w/ a SE wind @ 925mb..how is that a 'great sign' w/ regard

to turning colder ?

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I did. Models are terrible with boundary layer cooling in the presence of precipitation, and underestimate ageostrophic flow. it wasn't weenish to assume that the models were definitely too warm. However, the winds at 925mb are SE, so I think I'm going to change over to sleet soon.

i already changed over, to maybe even plain rain.

 

EDIT: back to mostly snow...

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Sleet line slowly working its way north on the correlation coefficient. SE winds at 925 mb make that changeover inevitable. Still a great sign that we are running colder than all guidance, though.

..question DS..w/ a SE wind @ 925mb..how is that a 'great sign' w/ regard

to turning colder ?

It's just a great sign that the models were currently too warm by several degrees. Doesn't mean we won't still see mixing, of course. But I don't think the mixing and rain will last as long as the models said it would.

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I did. Models are terrible with boundary layer cooling in the presence of precipitation, and underestimate ageostrophic flow. it wasn't weenish to assume that the models were definitely too warm. However, the winds at 925mb are SE, so I think I'm going to change over to sleet soon.

i already changed over, to maybe even plain rain.

Makes sense. Correlation coefficient says you're getting sleet, but that I'm literally 2 miles north of the sleet line.

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 It all comes down to how intense the CCB will be . Precip amounts tend to grade off pretty rapidly but there should be a lot of convection so its dicey  , will wait to see what the 12 NAM thinks because its kind of had a good view on this in the last 12 hrs ( took it long enough ) . If the 12z matches the 0z  then its really game on , Because the 27 hr look of 1.5 qpf inside 6 hrs was about the best i`ve seen . The 6z backed off a bit

So will look for that signal today

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32.2 in Lynbrook  P type intensity based, Ive seen plain rain in the past at 31.5 and now snow here at 32.2  so colder upstairs i guess.

As long as we do dont have an 8 hour period of windswept rainI'll be happy, Ive reconciled myself to losing .5QPF but the sooner this is all snow the happier I'll be, just want my 12-18 here.

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Precip intensity has waned, which doesn't help things.

yup - but in general any snow that would fall before 0Z tonight would be big bonus snow

Yeah. I was quite happy to see the snow we had this morning. Nice little surprise.

I do think we change back over to snow before 0z though, and maybe even several hours earlier.

I'm still somehow holding on to really crappy snowflakes, though, for now.

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