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February 8th-9th Snowstorm/Blizzard Event Observations


WeatherFox

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 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1150 AM CST FRI FEB 08 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND      CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW       VALID 081750Z - 082145Z      SUMMARY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NWD FROM NRN NJ AND SERN NY   THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE   THROUGH THE DAY WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR BY LATE   AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HEAVIEST RATES /2+ INCH PER HOUR/ ARE   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING.      DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED   JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM   THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS   DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX NEAR THE CNTRL VA COAST AND   WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF   PRECIPITATION IS IN PROGRESS FROM NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN   ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SNOW RATES WITHIN   THIS AREA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 0.5 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH MID   AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND   SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING AS THE WARM NOSE AOB   850 MB BEGINS TO COOL WITH THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION NW OF THE LOW   CENTER.      LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONE OF STRONG 850-700 MB   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS JUST NE OF THE LOW   CENTER OFF THE SRN NJ COAST. THIS ZONE OF STRONG FORCING AND MID   LEVEL ASCENT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH TODAY AS THE LEAD IMPULSE   INTERACTS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EJECTS   TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL UNDERGO A   SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FROM NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY   EVENING AS ZONE OF ASCENT DEVELOPS NWD AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE   DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THE SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BANDED   STRUCTURES THIS EVENING WITHIN THE NWD DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC   ZONE...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME   SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITHIN THE BANDS.      ..DIAL.. 02/08/2013
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