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Blizzard Observation Thread Feb 8-9th 2013


dryslot

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Preview to the main show later? I would think that's going to be about the location of the big band. Our local WRF is really hitting it hard just SE of that actually, but we really have no clue how well it handles these types of scenarios. It's really the first big coastal with the model up and running.

 

 

SE works for me.............. :snowing:

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Local WRF would crush you.

 

At this point, PWM is closing in on 6". Even if we "only" get 12" from the main show, we're talking 18" and just outside the top 10 all time. Pretty impressive.

I think 24-30 inches is certainly possible in Southern Maine. The 12Z NAM really shows that deformation band over our area.

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Should be fun

very cool, please keep posting picks throughout

 

been snowing lightly here close to 3 hours now, dusting, wind is the most notable aspect so far (temp dropped from 32 to 31 as well) 

 

KUUU 081353Z AUTO 08016G22KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN014 OVC025 M01/M03 A3023 RMK AO2 SNB1255 SLP237 P0000 T10061028

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Hey guys, mostly a lurker here but wanted to drop in and say thanks for all your model analysis and forecasting. I am just a hobbyist, but I've learned a bunch from you all. Hoping you get the storm of a lifetime... and just throw a little back my way :snowing: I spent 20 years in Buffalo, there's nothing like the thrill of a raging snowstorm!

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I can't believe we have 4-6 inches of snow in Southern Maine already, wow.

Plow just made its first pass here.This really is a great bonus. Of course, I'm having these occasional paranoid thoughts about how the early arrival of this stuff is a sign that things aren't coming together quite as progged (is the northern system outrunning the southern one?) and we'll end up underperforming during the main event. As I understand it what we have right now is front-driven, so that shouldn't be the case. It's funny -- we weenies wishcast when things look bleak and look for any sign of trouble when they seem to be going well.

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Local WRF would crush you.

 

At this point, PWM is closing in on 6". Even if we "only" get 12" from the main show, we're talking 18" and just outside the top 10 all time. Pretty impressive.

 

 

I hope that tool is spot on, This storm should be a great indicator to see how it performs, In the end, This will be a very impressive storm for many areas, As always, There will be some that end up on the jackpot end with higher totals, But who can argue 12"+ totals

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Light pixie dust snow falling here. 24° F.

 

In terms of IMBY (sorry for the IMBY fetish, but I couldn't resist), I'm a little concerned about the eastward tick and later phase overnight on the guidance. 12z NAM still wants to get me into the death band for a while though, but there is a strong QPF gradient over W NE and it is the NAM. As such, a 20-30 mile shift in the band one way or another will make a difference.

 

The million dollar question for out here is how long do we get into the death band? I think the east slope gets into it longer than I do, but we're now walking a fine line here and we cannot afford another shift east or we'll be left with a pedestrian snowstorm vs. something historic.

 

ORH, MHT, BOS, PVD points east still look great as I'm mostly speaking for areas west of the CT River.

 

Very difficult forecast for GC and the Berkshires as our totals will depend on whether we can get into good deformation banding. I could get > 20" or I could get 7". My "gun to the head" call for my location is 10-15" as ratios will be good. Maybe 14-18" for east slope. Again, these numbers are subject to go up or down.

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Absolutely wild stuff setting up around long island.

Currently light rain, with some flakes/sleet mixed in RP, north shore LI.  Curious what the burgeoning band to the south brings near term.  Be interesting to see the final disparity between southern CT and eastern LI.  Dicey BL/ML battle here before dynamics arrive.  Good luck to all of NE. I expect very good things here, but it'll be awesome watching SNE.

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Plow just made its first pass here.This really is a great bonus. Of course, I'm having these occasional paranoid thoughts about how the early arrival of this stuff is a sign that things aren't coming together quite as progged (is the northern system outrunning the southern one?) and we'll end up underperforming during the main event. As I understand it what we have right now is front-driven, so that shouldn't be the case. It's funny -- we weenies wishcast when things look bleak and look for any sign of trouble when they seem to be going well.

 

I think we're looking at two mechanisms right now. One is the coastal stuff, easterly flow being forced over the coastal front and snowing out very near the water. The stuff west of the turnpike is related to the frontogenesis from the northern stream wave.

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Not sure where to post this, but if you want to "observe" the storm live, this is a webcam located near Martha's Vineyard at someones farm. We enjoy watching it and it's great live feed. I thought it would be cool to see how the animals react to the snow piling up.

 

http://flyingskunk.com/live.php

Love this site- thank you.  The camera is very valuable to me because I am exactly 15 miles north of where that shot takes place.  If they have snow, we surely will.  So good info for possible changeover/etc., as it will hit them first. Thanks again.

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