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Blizzard Observation Thread Feb 8-9th 2013


dryslot

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The band that formed over Greenwich is hitting here, SN to sometimes SN+ with the wind, probably 1.5" per hour if I had to guess, but horrible at guessing those kinds of things. It's coming down FAST, not very heavy intensity, but the speed of the flakes is something that i don't get to see too often, for most of the day it was slow floaters, these things look like they mean buisness. Done with measurements for the night, but will provide eyeball updates as possible. Just getting too windy to get an accurate number, drifts getting large around here.

 

-skisheep

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Will,, what do you think? Where does she start to pivot?

 

 

Should be anytime now..that band in CT will weaken as the ML fronto maxes out...but there will prob be new enhanced bands further NE developing too...they won't look like that though with the bright banding you guys got.

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Should be anytime now..that band in CT will weaken as the ML fronto maxes out...but there will prob be new enhanced bands further NE developing too...they won't look like that though with the bright banding you guys got.

So basically now we look for where those other enhanced bands set up..or is that more hvy snow for everyone?

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

951 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED INTO SATURDAY...

WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW. THIS STORM SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE

SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY SUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL

SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED

BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE FEW EDITS TO THE GRIDS...THE FORECAST IS

ON TRACK. WE HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 3

INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN

ADDITION...HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDERSNOW...MAINLY

ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND

WESTERN CONNECTICUT.

WIND REPORTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN

MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. HIGHEST WIND REPORT THUS FAR HAS

BEEN AT NANTUCKET WHERE WINDS GUSTED TO 69 MPH. RAIN ACROSS

NANTUCKET SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE

OF HOURS AS THE LOW DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

REPORTS ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED. FOLLOW US ON TWITTER...OR FRIEND

US ON FACEBOOK. PICTURES ARE GREATLY WELCOMED. YOU CAN ALSO

SUBMIT A STORM REPORT VIA OUR WEBPAGE AT ERH.NOAA.GOV/BOX.

HEADLINES /HIGH CONFIDENCE/...

* A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY. YOU SHOULD NOT BE OUT ON THE ROADS AT

THIS TIME. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. STAY INDOORS!

* THIS STORM WILL POSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS AND THREATS TO BOTH

LIFE AND PROPERTY!

* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...E/SE MA...AND

SE NH. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES.

* FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...STRONG AND

DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 60

MPH.

* STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP

10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 FEET POSSIBLE. BLOWING

AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATING RESULTING IN HIGHER DRIFTS.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED...BECOMING NEARLY

IMPOSSIBLE. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. DRIVING AND PARKING

BANS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS LOCALES.

*/MODEL CONSENSUS...

CONTINUING TO STICK WITH THE LATEST 08.12Z ECMWF...WITH

CONSIDERATION TOWARDS THE SREF MEANS. VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY

AMONGST MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING QPF AND WIND FIELDS. NEAR-TERM

MESOSCALE GUIDANCE DOING WELL WITH 2M TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE

MOS-GUIDE. CONSIDERED SNOW RATIOS OF 1:8 FOR WHERE WET AND HEAVIER

SNOW IS ANTICIPATED...WITH MORE 1:12 WITH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS N/W INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT

MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST FIELDS AND

ATTENDANT HAZARDS.

*/SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW DISTURBANCES PHASING ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINES OF NEW

ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE AS A STRONG 1035 HIGH KEEPS COLD AIR IN

PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW ITSELF HAS DEEPENED DOWN

TO 993 MB AS THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN USURPED INTO THE

SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING IS ONGOING WITH

THE SURFACE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

ANTICIPATING A CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE OF AROUND 975 MB THROUGH THE

PASSAGE OF THIS STORM.

AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS...WILL SEE THE DRAW OF DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM

THE SOUTH PER STRONG /HURRICANE FORCE/ LOW-LVL FLOW. THIS CAN

ACTUALLY BE SEEN IN CIMMS PRECIPITABLE WATER TOOL SHOWING

PRESENTLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH VALUES BEING DRAWN UP THE MID-ATLANTIC

INTO THE CENTER OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT E AND SE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW

ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE STORM TAPERING OFF INTO

SATURDAY NIGHT.

*/PRECIPITATION...

HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION RESULTING IN

VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. SNOWFALL RATES OF

AROUND 3 INCHES PER HOUR OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...THE THERMAL FIELDS ARE COLLAPSING. COLDER

AIR CONTINUES TO ENCROACH SOUTH AND EAST. RAIN AT NANTUCKET SHOULD

CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE DRAW OF

COLDER AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS

THE COAST TO BECOME FLUFFIER...RESULTING IN INCREASING SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS PER HOUR.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY...

BECOMING LIGHTER INTO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLY

TAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THE

ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

*/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

INITIAL E-W SNOW-BANDING IS COMING ASHORE AND BEGINNING TO PIVOT

SW-NE AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W. THIS

BANDING IS COINCIDENT WITH THE NW QUADRANT OF THE MID-LVL LOW

WHERE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC TROWALING OF THETAE AXIS...MID-LVL

FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP-LAYER ENHANCED ASCENT EXISTS WITHIN THE

BETTER SNOW-GROWTH REGIONS. STRONG VERTICAL VELOCITIES THROUGH THE

SNOW-GROWTH REGIONS ARE PRESENTLY MODELED IN THE INITIALIZATION

FIELDS OF THE NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS OVER S/SE NEW ENGLAND.

AROUND 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOW ANTICIPATED. HEAVIEST BANDS

MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 MILES IN WIDTH...AND...AS EXPECTED...WITH THE

DYNAMICALLY DEEP NATURE OF THE STORM WE ARE SEEING NUMEROUS

REPORTS OF THUNDER-SNOW /COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER VORTMAX

WHERE THE STRONGEST ASCENT EXISTS AT THE LEADING EDGE/.

ASIDE...WITH MORE FAVORABILITY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...A LOW-MID LVL

BAND SETUP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND COINCIDENT WITH

THE BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW /PARALLEL AND LIKELY ALONG

THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE/. A MORE MID-LVL

BANDING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON RIVER

VALLEY ACROSS W MA TOWARDS THE SHORELINE OF MAINE. COULD BE SOME

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WE

ARE SEEING THIS SETUP ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WSR-88D RADAR

RETURNS.

NO SURPRISE...AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING

OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE ORIENTED ALONG

AND ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CONTINUE TO SET MY SIGHTS OF

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS VICINITY.

HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF

WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF

24 TO 30 INCHES EXPECTED /LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE NOW

ANTICIPATED/...WITH 18 TO 24 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOWER TOTALS OVER

EXTREME SE NEW ENGLAND OVER THE E CAPE AND ISLANDS DUE TO INITIAL

MIXING WITH RAIN. SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY CREATE A LULL IN SNOW

AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR CT/RI...E/SE MA EXCLUDING

NANTUCKET...AND SE NH. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER A WINTER STORM

WARNING. WILL SET THE TIMING FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY...

WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO

SATURDAY.

*/WINDS

HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA /GUSTS GREATER THAN 58 MPH/ WILL IMPACT

ALL AREAS ENCOMPASSED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...AS WELL AS

NANTUCKET. N/NE WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK /500 FT AGL/ OVER THE

EASTERN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE SUSTAINED AT AROUND 70 MPH

CENTERED AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH-

NORTHEAST.

CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRECIPITATION DRAG

PROCESSES...AND A MOIST-ADIABATIC VERTICAL PROFILE UP TO H925...AM

EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FOR FAR NW MA...INCREASING SOUTH AND

EAST WITH GUSTS ACROSS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND

ADJACENT WATERS OF AROUND 80 MPH.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BASED ON THE LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W

BENCHMARK...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE I-95

CORRIDOR EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND

ADJACENT WATERS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DRAW DOWN OF COLDER AIR WILL MAKE THE SNOW

FLUFFIER IN NATURE. ANTICIPATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH STORM

WARNINGS FOR THE INNER WATERS.

*/MARINE IMPACTS

PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION.

*/COASTAL FLOODING

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE

DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS QUITE WAVY BUT WITH A SENSE OF A RIDGE

IN THE EAST AND TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN OOZES

EAST THANKS TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE ARCTIC LOW. BY THE END

OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS REVERSED...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE

EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURE FIELDS WAVER BETWEEN

MILDER AND COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SIGNS OF A COOL DOWN OVER

THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK. MODEL FEATURES ARE SIMILAR

THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN DIVERGE DURING WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.

FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR NEW ENGLAND...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TURNS THE

CORNER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND EJECTS ACROSS THE

PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN CROSSES NEW

ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN

TROUGH EJECTS EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND GENERATES A GULF OF MEXICO

SURFACE LOW. THIS RACES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A COLD

FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT... COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND PASS

SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. NEW ENGLAND WILL START THE NIGHT WITH

PRESSURE RISES OF 1-2 MB PER HOUR...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1 MB

PER HOUR BY DAYBREAK. MIXING IS STILL INDICATED ACROSS THE

MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST DURING THE EVENING WITH 30-45 KT

AVAILABLE...BUT BOTH THE WINDS ALOFT AND THE MIXING SIGNAL

DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS

SHOW QPF OVER EASTERN MASS EARLY. SO POPS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THIS

AREA WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET...VALUES THEN

DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

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Put on a movie ("Flight", which I enjoyed) at 745pm, we had about 5" at that time, came out when it was done about 20 minutes ago and we were pretty close to 12", amazing! It must have all been that intense band that came through, but which is now (unfortunately for me) off to my NW. I'm content, more snow to come!

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Take it up Dom...we are rockin now and will through tomorrow...

 

Beer on over under of 17?

I kind of neglected looking at the time on the models, sort of thought it was mostly over by 4 AM but that seems to not be the case just looked at the NAM.

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