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Blizzard Observation Thread Feb 8-9th 2013


dryslot

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I started archiving runs of the GFS a few days prior to this so it should be interesting to review. I'm still not convinced that the NAM or ECMWF "nailed" this. The axis of max precip was off but a lot of the dynamics were correct so I guess it's how you weigh everything. It's all just guidance.

Yeah lot of snow those models had for this area busted. Euro shifted the stall point 200 miles in the last few runs. Look at gyx radar. Shift that 200 miles sw and the actual weather is a lot different. Gfs probably had that more right but failed with not pushing axis far enough NW.

The euro never really picked up on the banding in li and ct, i mean it "did" but I doubt anyone would have forecast 40" from it. The nam lol. It gave boston and Worcester 70" a day or so ago and NJ not much less even 18-24 hours ago.

HRRR was only okay. 4km nam was probably the best inside of 24 as it turns out

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I started archiving runs of the GFS a few days prior to this so it should be interesting to review.  I'm still not convinced that the NAM or ECMWF "nailed" this.  The axis of max precip was off but a lot of the dynamics were correct so I guess it's how you weigh everything.  It's all just guidance.

 

 

There was not one that had the track of the low right, This storm tracked further west then modled

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Good to hear. Was wondering where we were at

So probably will end up around 2 feet if measuring correctly since it's still bordering heavy snow. I was wrong and kind of wish I didn't go to bed cause it must've absolutely ripped after midnight.

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There was not one that had the track of the low right, This storm tracked further west then modled

 

Clearly model guidance focused too much on the surface low pressure and tied the upper levels to that. It was very evident from satellite and radar that upper levels were farther west than modeled.

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So probably will end up around 2 feet if measuring correctly since it's still bordering heavy snow. I was wrong and kind of wish I didn't go to bed cause it must've absolutely ripped after midnight.

I went to bed too. Got to see heavy snow this morning and it is still ccoming down good right now. I saw one report of already having 24".

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They never got into that superband--even as it is, we were on the edge of it, otherwise we'd have the 36 inch totals like wallingford

Greenwich 15 so in 25 miles double the snowfall.............I have three measurements.........32 27 31.  Impossible, some epic pics coming later, I think its a rare case where I got ya:) I was getting it good yesterday afternoon while the band was kissing the beach.

 

Enjoy man, this is epic

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Clearly model guidance focused too much on the surface low pressure and tied the upper levels to that. It was very evident from satellite and radar that upper levels were farther west than modeled.

Yeah 100% agree. The 7h low couldn't have been too far from me last night.

This really broke your way in the last 12-18 hours

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