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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM N
   TO S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE
   LIKELY...IMPACTING METRO CHICAGO...ROCKFORD...AND MILWAUKEE.
  
   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SHIELD OF
   PRECIPITATION FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO SWRN LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY
   LIES WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME LEADING AN APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY THAT ARCS FROM SWRN
   WI INTO S-CNTRL IA ALIGNS WITH AN 850-MB DEFORMATION ZONE WNW OF A
   NRN-IL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY TRACKS ENEWD
   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT PERSISTS
   WHILE BEING AUGMENTED BY STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
   CIRCULATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS.
  
   WHERE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING AS RAIN -- I.E. CNTRL/SRN
   PARTS OF THE MCD AREA -- SOUNDINGS FROM AMDAR FOR APPROACHES TO/FROM
   CHICAGO-OHARE/MIDWAY/MILWAUKEE AIRPORTS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL TAKE
   LITTLE ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT FOR SNOW TO BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
   PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN THESE AREAS...SHALLOW...1-2C WARM LAYERS ARE
   NOTED BELOW THE 850-MB LEVEL. ADIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
   FORCED ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW
   FOR WET-BULB-ZERO HEIGHTS TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR SNOW TO
   BECOME THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FROM N TO S ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
  
   SPECIFICALLY...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM THE NSSL
   PRECIPITATION IDENTIFICATION NEAR THE GROUND /PING/ PROJECT SUGGEST
   THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING ALONG AND N OF A ROCK COUNTY
   WI TO LAKE COUNTY IL LINE. BY 22Z...SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE THE
   PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO
   TO ROCKFORD. BY 00Z...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM E OF
   STERLING IL TO THE S SUBURBS OF CHICAGO.
  
   GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT OVERLAPPING WITH
   THE NNEWD-EXTENSION OF A 0.5-0.7-INCH PW PLUME PER GPS DATA...AND A
   DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND/JUST BELOW 0C AOB THE 725-MB LEVEL PER
   SOUNDINGS -- AMDAR AND FORECAST -- HEAVY SNOW FROM EFFICIENT
   AGGREGATION PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY FOLLOWING THE RAIN-TO-SNOW
   TRANSITION. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE ANTICIPATED...AS PER
   COORDINATION WITH THE ROMEOVILLE IL AND MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
   WFO/S...WITH IMPACTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS METRO
   CHICAGO...ROCKFORD...AND MILWAUKEE.
 

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Walked between classes at 2:25 (35 minutes ago) and there were some pingers mixed in with the snow. Not much, but a few. We're really not too far from the edge of the precip shield and it looks like a few temporary areas of mixing have popped up. I bet they go away when stronger bands move through. I'd guess we have 2.5 inches.

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Got an area of 35dbz+ from from McHenry to Kenosha sitting overhead.

 

Just heard from a friend in Zion that a Comed truck slide into a shallow retention pond. Luckily there wasn't much water in it!

 

Here's I-290 and Higgins Rd.

 

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I've noticed the models continue to slow the exit of the snow tomorrow afternoon here. It almost looks like the northern stream snow melds into the defo zone of the coast and pivots a bit. In fact 18z NAM kinda has a trowal signature. I'm wondering if a foot plus is more likely than not.

I'm also curious about the type of lake enhancement possible when winds shift NE tomorrow. Could add a few cm's to the totals. No doubt much of the GTA will be basically shut down tomorrow. 

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I've noticed the models continue to slow the exit of the snow tomorrow afternoon here. It almost looks like the northern stream snow melds into the defo zone of the coast and pivots a bit. In fact 18z NAM kinda has a trowal signature. I'm wondering if a foot plus is more likely than not.

Pouring snow here at finch don mills area

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Surprised to see Hamilton under a winter storm warning and not Toronto. Wonder what made them decide that. 

They may think the main defo band will stay more south or they suspect lake enhancement will be strongest at the western tip of the lake.

Toronto may get its a storm warning though with the 330 update.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

228 PM CST THU FEB 07 2013  

    .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

    .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0220 PM HEAVY SNOW SPRING GROVE 42.44N 88.24W  

02/07/2013 E4.0 INCH MCHENRY IL PUBLIC  

 

SNOW TOTAL SO FAR.  

 

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