A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 heavy snow at UGN KUGN 071852Z 12007KT 1/4SM +SN FG OVC003 00/00 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP152 P0000 T00000000 need the rain/snow line to clear the area before the returns way down around galesburg and burlington push through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Temps are rising to high. Temps 36-38 degrees. Could be a major problem at the start of the storm around 94 south... It might be all liquid south of 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 anyone looking for lolz check out some of the 1 hr snowfall totals the HRRR busts out later this evening The reason it does this is due to a moist neutral/weakly unstable layer from 700 to 500mb, right across the DGZ. The RAP and NAM show this unstable/neutral layer for quite some time this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Typical mesoanalysis disclaimer but it has 850 and 925 temps taking a nice drop over NE IL...if correct northern Cook isn't far from switching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The reason it does this is due to a moist neutral/weakly unstable layer from 700 to 500mb, right across the DGZ. The RAP and NAM show this unstable/neutral layer for quite some time this afternoon and evening. Thanks. Really hoping we can cool down in time...confidence is increasing somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Noticing a few more flakes of snow mixed in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Most of the Detroit area looking at pure slop while the real action stays well north of i69. DTX liking the possibility of a mixed bag of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DTW LAT= 42.23 LON= -83.33 ELE= 663 12Z FEB07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 00Z 08-FEB -2.2 -0.4 1017 77 62 0.00 553 539 FRI 06Z 08-FEB -0.8 -0.7 1013 90 100 0.05 549 539 FRI 12Z 08-FEB -1.3 -3.0 1011 93 93 0.30 542 534 FRI 18Z 08-FEB -3.3 -6.7 1017 78 93 0.11 539 525 SAT 00Z 09-FEB -5.5 -7.5 1025 78 10 0.00 543 523 SAT 06Z 09-FEB -6.6 -6.6 1028 81 15 0.00 547 526 Still looking good for Detroit..! The euro has never wavered on its all snow scenario...lets hope its correct. At the very least DTW should break the 30" mark tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Noticing a few more flakes of snow mixed in here. Are you in Addison..if so, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Are you in Addison..if so, nice. I'm like 5 miles west of ORD; at work now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It might be all liquid south of 94 The RAP is hinting at freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snow starting to increase here a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It might be all liquid south of 94 Lol I doubt it, though I think u kinda want it to be liquid for us. I am definitely expecting a mix at first. DTX sounds very on top of things. Saod freezing rain and sleet at onset turning to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Using cc on radar scope rain/snow line looks to be just west of Dekalb. Is Rockford reporting snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Most of the Detroit area looking at pure slop while the real action stays well north of i69. DTX liking the possibility of a mixed bag of precip. Nah. M59 north should be fine. Im at 33 here. I don't think to much of a mix will play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3.1" now as of 1:10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'll go out and get a picture when the solid 35 dbz band reaches me. It's just about on my doorstep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Downtown Racine looks to be getting clobbered atm. Are you still in Racine Brewers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3.1" now as of 1:10pm. The RPM is going to bust before 3 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol I doubt it, though I think u kinda want it to be liquid for us. I am definitely expecting a mix at first. DTX sounds very on top of things. Saod freezing rain and sleet at onset turning to heavy snow. Remember the moisture moves out quickly. So if you lose 2-3 hrs with FRZ Rain/Sleet/Rain. There goes 40-50% of your snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 anyone looking for lolz check out some of the 1 hr snowfall totals the HRRR busts out later this evening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Libertyville all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3.1" now as of 1:10pm. def heading to 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Downtown Racine looks to be getting clobbered atm. Are you still in Racine Brewers? Yup +SN right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 been getting some good updates from LOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL106 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013MESOSCALE DISCUSSION106 PM CSTWE HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES TO A WINTERSTORM WARNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUES TOINDICATE HEAVY SNOW RATES IN ACROSS LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. WEHAVE HAD REPORTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN BEACH PARK WITHIN A COUPLEHOURS.A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSSEASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA...WILL LINK UP WITH ASTRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV TORESULT IN A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOISTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TOSNOW ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THEINTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLUMN COOL OCCURS INRESPONSE TO THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LASTAMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD AND MDW...ONLY INDICATE A MAX TEMP OFAROUND +1 AROUND 946 MB. SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TIP THE SCALESIN FAVOR FOR SNOW. ONCE THE SNOW STARTS EXPECT HEAVY SNOW UP TO ANINCH PER HOUR AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE. LESSER AMOUNTSOF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE I 80 CORRIDOR.HOWEVER...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO CHANGE OVER THIS FAR SOUTH...THUS1 TO 3 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AS WELL INTO THEEVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Using cc on radar scope rain/snow line looks to be just west of Dekalb. Is Rockford reporting snow ? Yep SPECI KRFD 071911Z 12004KT 1SM R01/3500V6000FT -SN BR OVC005 01/00 A2993 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2 PLE1857 P0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Remember the moisture moves out quickly. So if you lose 2-3 hrs with FRZ Rain/Sleet/Rain. There goes 40-50% of your snow totals. What concerns me is the amount of freezing rain. If the RAP had its way, we'd be covered in ice. Not very good for the morning commute. Even a tenth wouldn't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 starting to look like my place will be flipping to snow slightly ahead of the anticipated 21z window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 103 PM CST THU FEB 7 2013 UPDATE ALL MIXED PRECIP CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS MORNING. THIS TRANSITION WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT PRODUCT OF THE MKX DUAL POL RADAR. THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY CLEAR SIGNATURE ON THE ZDR PRODUCT AS WELL...GOING FROM HIGH ZDR IN THE MIXY PRECIP TO LOW ZDR IN THE SNOW AREAS. EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY AND STEADILY IN SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH 6 PM. KENOSHA IS REPORTING 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY AND THEY ARE UNDER A HEAVY BAND OF REFLECTIVITY. THERE WAS A REPORT OF ONE INCH ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND IN THE LAST HOUR. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A HALF INCH OF QPF IN THE 18-00Z TIME PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM COBB SNOW RATIOS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATIOS UP TO 15:1. WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING 10:1...COMPROMISED WITH ROUGHLY 12:1 RATIOS. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW RATIOS. EXPECTING AROUND 6 INCHES ACCUM IN SOUTHEAST WI FROM NOON TO 6 PM AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS OVERNIGHT. NEW STORM TOTAL IS NOW 7 TO 9 INCHES FOR SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES...EASTERN WALWORTH COUNTY...AND RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. DEBATED ABOUT ADDING ROCK COUNTY BACK INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY...BUT OPTED NOT TO AT THIS TIME. THE AXIS OF HIGH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI AND FAR NORTHEAST IL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN IL INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL IL...RIGHT AS THE 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND COINCIDES WITH A VORT MAX ROLLING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN IL...AND THERE IS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WI. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AT 600MB IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE /ALSO IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE/ WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP THE SNOW ACCUMULATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The RPM is going to bust before 3 pm No kidding. I got 4-9" in my grid now. Gonna hit the low mark by 2pm I think! HRRR going all out I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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