RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pretty surprised we've managed to stay all snow Dynamics FTW. Strong mesoscale forcing from the fgen band and enhanced omega/dynamic cooling and large scale forcing via the approaching midlevel wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 WXYZ going to probably be correct as usual. What do you think about DTX calling for 2-3" as far south as the OH border? I just want some buffer room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As complicated a forecast as this storm was I think the 1-3 inch calls for Chicago proper will pan out. I'm thinking ORD registers 1.5 inches. Which is on par with most calls. I was on the board for .7 with my call 48 hours out...i've already busted. 1" and snowing hard...should end up around 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What do you think about DTX calling for 2-3" as far south as the OH border? I just want some buffer room Earlier I posted sleet/Frz Rain might be an issue but I'm not so sure now It may stay mostly or all snow just my thought. So it's good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was on the board for .7 with my call 48 hours out...i've already bust. 1" and snowing hard...should end up around 2-3 Unless there were big changes right after I left, I think that's right about what we had the North Side at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 WXYZ going to probably be correct as usual. The freezing rain looks to be an issue too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snow rates and flake size tapering down. Got about 3" down give or take, I will run out and take a measurement in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Measured almost 3" of the heaviest wettest snow you would ever want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Unless there were big changes right after I left, I think that's right about what we had the North Side at. We should end up right on target for where you had us after the mid-morning bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Measured almost 3" of the heaviest wettest snow you would ever want. probably the heaviest snow of the event right now...but we're still just above freezing so the standing water and snow have formed an awful slush layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Dynamics FTW. Strong mesoscale forcing from the fgen band and enhanced omega/dynamic cooling and large scale forcing via the approaching midlevel wave. Something that nobody really mentioned either is the time of year. This same exact scenario happens later in March or April and I bet it works out differently. Easier to snow with 850 mb temps around/just below 0C at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3.2 in Elgin about 2 miles west of Randall off Bowes. (null) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Earlier I posted sleet/Frz Rain might be an issue but I'm not so sure now It may stay mostly or all snow just my thought. So it's good news You will for sure be completely fine. Its here that Im more worried. Using the models ptype schemes, gfs and euro show all snow, nam shows freezing rain turning to snow (but more zr than sn) and gem was a mix but including lots of rain. I just dont know what to think. Temps bubbling up early is not an issue, as temp is already falling to freezing. Im thinking we will see a mix but hope the changeover is quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey SSC, what are you at right now? Per radar, it looks like Toronto has been getting it good for a couple of hours. A little bummed since we've gotten nothing so far in Hamilton so it looks like 12"+ might be out of reach for us. The extra 2" some in the GTA got today could make some impressive totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What do you think about DTX calling for 2-3" as far south as the OH border? I just want some buffer room in line with my call last night of 1-3" near the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As complicated a forecast as this storm was I think the 1-3 inch calls for Chicago proper will pan out. I'm thinking ORD registers 1.5 inches. Which is on par with most calls. They called for either all rain or 1", so no it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, my flight to Boston is now a no-go. My flight was delayed until tomorrow morning and that wouldn't have worked out. Air Tran sux. Hoping we can get something here in Wayne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We should end up right on target for where you had us after the mid-morning bump It's good to see things work out fairly close to the am update we did yesterday. I wasn't the one who did the grids (it wasn't TRS either lol) but definitely helped out with the forecast process when we decided to do the update. Looks like we'll end up a little high in Chicago but actually too low in Lake and McHenry with yesterday's storm total forecast, although we'll have to see with that backside band starting to push into the NW CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was on the board for .7 with my call 48 hours out...i've already busted. 1" and snowing hard...should end up around 2-3 respect to stebo for his 1.9" (i think) call early on. of course he was accused of being bullish. met vs non-met i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Are you leaving Southern Ontario for this storm or something? If so sorry to hear that your gonna miss this one. Yep. Currently on the way to Ottawa. Had this trip planned for a while unfortunately it just fell on the day of our biggest storm in 5 years. Like I said, it's killing me. Looks like nearly all the models are in consensus for 12"+. CBC just forecast 37 for Toronto. HPC 12"+ probabilities are 70%. Sigh, may have to give up forecasting/weather for a while after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey SSC, what are you at right now? Per radar, it looks like Toronto has been getting it good for a couple of hours. A little bummed since we've gotten nothing so far in Hamilton so it looks like 12"+ might be out of reach for us. The extra 2" some in the GTA got today could make some impressive totals. Borderline moderate snow now. Still looks like less than an inch. I'll go out and measure in a bit. I know some parts of the east end, that saw LES earlier this morning are near or a bit above 2". The dry slot was well advertised across the 403 corridor south to Lk Erie. Hamilton won't get into heavier snow until probably 2-3am in the morning. I like 8 or 9" for Hamilton, maybe a bit more if you can latch onto some LES on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 - Kingston is going to get absolutely destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Some monster flakes coming down now. Having a hard time sticking though due to the wet ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 respect to stebo for his 1.9" (i think) call early on. of course he was accused of being bullish. met vs non-met i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 respect to stebo for his 1.9" (i think) call early on. of course he was accused of being bullish. met vs non-met i guess. Stebo will do well...he has busted high on literally every single call this year for ORD to date though...so win some lose some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Stebo will do well...he has busted high on literally every single call this year for ORD to date though...so win some lose some yes I have but the margin of error has been shrinking considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Borderline moderate snow now. Still looks like less than an inch. I'll go out and measure in a bit. I know some parts of the east end, that saw LES earlier this morning are near or a bit above 2". The dry slot was well advertised across the 403 corridor south to Lk Erie. Hamilton won't get into heavier snow until probably 2-3am in the morning. I like 8 or 9" for Hamilton, maybe a bit more if you can latch onto some LES on the backside. quick question: is it just me, or does radar appear to be constantly breaking apart between the Michigan border and Hamilton area? It's looked like snow is on our doorstep since about 4pm with only a few flakes so far. Or was this advertised by the models? I knew we would be missing this initial lake enhanced activity due to the SE winds, but am wondering about the arrival of the synoptic snow. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We were stuck under a solid deformation band all day, but not a flake of snow. I finished with 0.36" of rain. It's nice to see good snow falling on other forum members, especially in the Toronto area. It should be fun watching the carnage out east over the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Very happy I was way off for my N IL calls. A good kind of bust. I think it's safe now to do this, didn't want to jinx earlier...13.6" final for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.