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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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As complicated a forecast as this storm was I think the 1-3 inch calls for Chicago proper will pan out. I'm thinking ORD registers 1.5 inches. Which is on par with most calls.

 

 

I was on the board for .7 with my call 48 hours out...i've already busted.  1" and snowing hard...should end up around 2-3

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Dynamics FTW. Strong mesoscale forcing from the fgen band and enhanced omega/dynamic cooling and large scale forcing via the approaching midlevel wave.

Something that nobody really mentioned either is the time of year. This same exact scenario happens later in March or April and I bet it works out differently. Easier to snow with 850 mb temps around/just below 0C at this time of year.

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Earlier I posted sleet/Frz Rain might be an issue but I'm not so sure now :) It may stay mostly or all snow just my thought. So it's good news 

You will for sure be completely fine. Its here that Im more worried. Using the models ptype schemes, gfs and euro show all snow, nam shows freezing rain turning to snow (but more zr than sn) and gem was a mix but including lots of rain. I just dont know what to think. Temps bubbling up early is not an issue, as temp is already falling to freezing. Im thinking we will see a mix but hope the changeover is quick.

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Hey SSC, what are you at right now? Per radar, it looks like Toronto has been getting it good for a couple of hours. A little bummed since we've gotten nothing so far in Hamilton so it looks like 12"+ might be out of reach for us. The extra 2" some in the GTA got today could make some impressive totals.

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We should end up right on target for where you had us after the mid-morning bump

It's good to see things work out fairly close to the am update we did yesterday. I wasn't the one who did the grids (it wasn't TRS either lol) but definitely helped out with the forecast process when we decided to do the update. Looks like we'll end up a little high in Chicago but actually too low in Lake and McHenry with yesterday's storm total forecast, although we'll have to see with that backside band starting to push into the NW CWA.

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Are you leaving Southern Ontario for this storm or something? If so sorry to hear that your gonna miss this one. 

Yep. Currently on the way to Ottawa. Had this trip planned for a while unfortunately it just fell on the day of our biggest storm in 5 years. Like I said, it's killing me.

Looks like nearly all the models are in consensus for 12"+. CBC just forecast 37 for Toronto. HPC 12"+ probabilities are 70%.

Sigh, may have to give up forecasting/weather for a while after this.

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Hey SSC, what are you at right now? Per radar, it looks like Toronto has been getting it good for a couple of hours. A little bummed since we've gotten nothing so far in Hamilton so it looks like 12"+ might be out of reach for us. The extra 2" some in the GTA got today could make some impressive totals.

 

Borderline moderate snow now. Still looks like less than an inch. I'll go out and measure in a bit. I know some parts of the east end, that saw LES earlier this morning are near or a bit above 2".

 

The dry slot was well advertised across the 403 corridor south to Lk Erie. Hamilton won't get into heavier snow until probably 2-3am in the morning. I like 8 or 9" for Hamilton, maybe a bit more if you can latch onto some LES on the backside.

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Borderline moderate snow now. Still looks like less than an inch. I'll go out and measure in a bit. I know some parts of the east end, that saw LES earlier this morning are near or a bit above 2".

 

The dry slot was well advertised across the 403 corridor south to Lk Erie. Hamilton won't get into heavier snow until probably 2-3am in the morning. I like 8 or 9" for Hamilton, maybe a bit more if you can latch onto some LES on the backside.

quick question:  is it just me, or does radar appear to be constantly breaking apart between the Michigan border and Hamilton area?  It's looked like snow is on our doorstep since about 4pm with only a few flakes so far.  Or was this advertised by the models?

I knew we would be missing this initial lake enhanced activity due to the SE winds, but am wondering about the arrival of the synoptic snow. Thx

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