NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 are we forgetting how far east the gfs was on the 00z run?They don't look too dissimilar @ 0z sat.The 12z gfs precip is expanded more, but the SLP is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Once again, we'll have the Euro to settle the score. Honestly a 4-8" snowfall is what I'm willing to take given how a good chunk of this winter and of course last winter have been. Many on here are way too greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS at HR 42: thats like 50-75 miles away from being perfect...a bit too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is waffling too much for my liking. I think it closes off too late and NE aloft. The NAM to me seems more logical with a quicker close off aloft near NYC. However, the NAM does look overdone with qpf, but that is normal. With the deep trof developing out west, it is putting pressure on the downstream ridge which should help the Nrn stream trof to dig faster, thus closing off after phasing with the Srn stream system sooner vice later (as shown in the GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The trend is our friend. GFS not done moving IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mayor Bloomberg (NYC) just held a press conference and he (and the City's Sanitation Department) are expecting a 4-6 inch snowfall by Saturday morning. its like his initial sandy news conference saying there wouldn't be any evacuations. Anyway 4-6 isn't a terrible forecast right now itll likely be way off if the euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Also what will the ratios be? Rossi There is a strong easterly LLJ on the front end in the soundings below 850 mb during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z NAM bufkit for the KMMU 130208/0600Z 18 08010KT 29.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/0700Z 19 09010KT 29.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130208/0800Z 20 08010KT 29.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130208/0900Z 21 08010KT 29.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130208/1000Z 22 07010KT 29.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0130208/1100Z 23 07010KT 29.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0130208/1200Z 24 07011KT 30.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z 25 07011KT 31.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0130208/1400Z 26 07012KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0130208/1500Z 27 07013KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0130208/1600Z 28 06015KT 31.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0130208/1700Z 29 05016KT 30.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0130208/1800Z 30 05016KT 30.3F SNPL 3:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.090 6:1| 1.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.29 60| 40| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z 31 05016KT 30.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.139 4:1| 1.8|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.42 26| 74| 0130208/2000Z 32 05015KT 30.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 5:1| 2.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0130208/2100Z 33 05015KT 30.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 5:1| 3.4|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0130208/2200Z 34 05018KT 29.7F SNOW 8:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.184 6:1| 5.0|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0130208/2300Z 35 04020KT 29.2F SNOW 7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 6:1| 6.4|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.04 100| 0| 0130209/0000Z 36 03019KT 29.0F SNOW 7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140 6:1| 7.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.18 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z 37 02017KT 28.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 7:1| 9.1|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.33 100| 0| 0130209/0200Z 38 01017KT 28.3F SNOW 14:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 8:1| 11.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.50 100| 0| 0130209/0300Z 39 36017KT 27.4F SNOW 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228 8:1| 14.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.73 100| 0| 0130209/0400Z 40 35016KT 26.0F SNOW 16:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.254 9:1| 18.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.98 100| 0| 0130209/0500Z 41 35017KT 24.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.231 10:1| 21.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.21 100| 0| 0130209/0600Z 42 35018KT 22.9F SNOW 9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.137 10:1| 22.8|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.35 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z 43 34019KT 21.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 10:1| 23.7|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.44 100| 0| 0130209/0800Z 44 34019KT 20.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 24.6|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.49 100| 0| 0130209/0900Z 45 34019KT 19.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 10:1| 25.4|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.55 100| 0| 0130209/1000Z 46 33019KT 19.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 10:1| 25.7|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.59 100| 0| 0130209/1100Z 47 33019KT 19.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 10:1| 26.0|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.63 100| 0| 0130209/1200Z 48 33019KT 18.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 10:1| 26.1|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.65 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z 49 33020KT 18.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 26.2|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.66 100| 0| 0 KHPN 130208/1200Z 24 08016KT 31.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z 25 08017KT 31.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0130208/1400Z 26 08018KT 31.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0130208/1500Z 27 08018KT 31.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0130208/1600Z 28 07019KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0130208/1700Z 29 06020KT 30.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 9:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0130208/1800Z 30 06020KT 30.5F SNPL 3:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.089 7:1| 2.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.29 59| 41| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z 31 06018KT 31.9F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.124 7:1| 2.0|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.41 3| 97| 0130208/2000Z 32 06017KT 31.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 6:1| 2.6|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.53 100| 0| 0130208/2100Z 33 06018KT 30.6F SNOW 5:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 6:1| 3.1|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0130208/2200Z 34 06021KT 30.1F SNOW 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 6:1| 4.5|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.84 100| 0| 0130208/2300Z 35 05023KT 29.9F SNOW 7:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219 6:1| 6.0|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 1.06 100| 0| 0130209/0000Z 36 04023KT 30.3F SNPL 7:1| 1.5|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.209 7:1| 7.5|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 1.27 81| 19| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z 37 03023KT 31.2F SNPL 9:1| 3.7|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.401 7:1| 11.3|| 0.59|| 0.00|| 1.67 77| 23| 0130209/0200Z 38 02022KT 31.5F SNPL 7:1| 3.3|| 0.39|| 0.00|| 0.443 7:1| 14.5|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.11 56| 44| 0130209/0300Z 39 01020KT 29.4F SNOW 15:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.226 8:1| 17.8|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.34 100| 0| 0130209/0400Z 40 36019KT 27.6F SNOW 8:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.241 8:1| 19.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.58 100| 0| 0130209/0500Z 41 35021KT 25.2F SNOW 5:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 8:1| 20.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.79 100| 0| 0130209/0600Z 42 34022KT 22.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 8:1| 21.6|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.94 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z 43 34022KT 20.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 8:1| 22.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.05 100| 0| 0130209/0800Z 44 34023KT 18.2F SNOW 16:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 8:1| 24.0|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.13 100| 0| 0130209/0900Z 45 34024KT 17.5F SNOW 16:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 8:1| 25.1|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.19 100| 0| 0130209/1000Z 46 33023KT 17.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 8:1| 25.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.24 100| 0| 0130209/1100Z 47 33023KT 16.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 8:1| 26.2|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.27 100| 0| 0130209/1200Z 48 33023KT 15.9F SNOW 20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 8:1| 26.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.30 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z 49 33024KT 15.9F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 8:1| 26.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.31 100| 0| 0130209/1400Z 50 33026KT 16.4F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 8:1| 26.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.31 100| 0| 0130209/1500Z 51 33027KT 17.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 26.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.31 0| 0| 0 KSWF 130208/1200Z 24 07009KT 25.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z 25 08010KT 26.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130208/1400Z 26 08011KT 29.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130208/1500Z 27 09012KT 30.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0130208/1600Z 28 08012KT 30.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0130208/1700Z 29 06012KT 30.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0130208/1800Z 30 05014KT 29.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z 31 05015KT 28.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0130208/2000Z 32 04015KT 28.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086 7:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0130208/2100Z 33 05015KT 28.5F SNOW 4:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097 6:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0130208/2200Z 34 06016KT 28.3F SNOW 5:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 6:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 100| 0| 0130208/2300Z 35 05018KT 27.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 6:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0130209/0000Z 36 04020KT 26.7F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 7:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z 37 03020KT 26.0F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.123 7:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0130209/0200Z 38 02021KT 25.4F SNOW 11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153 8:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 100| 0| 0130209/0300Z 39 01022KT 24.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 9:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18 100| 0| 0130209/0400Z 40 01022KT 22.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.244 10:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.42 100| 0| 0130209/0500Z 41 36021KT 20.0F SNOW 16:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.295 11:1| 18.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.72 100| 0| 0130209/0600Z 42 36021KT 18.0F SNOW 14:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.273 11:1| 22.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.99 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z 43 35022KT 16.6F SNOW 18:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230 12:1| 26.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.22 100| 0| 0130209/0800Z 44 35022KT 16.1F SNOW 23:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178 13:1| 30.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.40 100| 0| 0130209/0900Z 45 35022KT 15.9F SNOW 18:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.156 13:1| 33.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.55 100| 0| 0130209/1000Z 46 35022KT 15.7F SNOW 18:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 13:1| 35.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.67 100| 0| 0130209/1100Z 47 35022KT 15.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 13:1| 36.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.75 100| 0| 0130209/1200Z 48 35022KT 15.2F SNOW 17:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 13:1| 37.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.80 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z 49 34022KT 14.8F SNOW 17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 14:1| 38.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.84 100| 0| 0130209/1400Z 50 34022KT 15.0F SNOW 26:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 14:1| 38.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.86 100| 0| 0130209/1500Z 51 34023KT 16.1F SNOW 26:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 14:1| 39.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.86 100| 0| 0 KLGA 130208/1100Z 23 07010KT 32.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 81| 0| 19130208/1200Z 24 07011KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 61| 5| 35----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z 25 07012KT 33.7F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 36| 23| 41130208/1400Z 26 07013KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 67| 0| 33130208/1500Z 27 06014KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.046 8:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.12 46| 33| 21130208/1600Z 28 05017KT 33.0F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 8:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.20 21| 47| 31130208/1700Z 29 05019KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 8:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.30 0| 0|100130208/1800Z 30 05018KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 8:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.41 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z 31 05018KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 8:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.55 0| 0|100130208/2000Z 32 05018KT 33.0F SNPL 1:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 8:1| 0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.71 18| 77| 6130208/2100Z 33 05019KT 32.3F SNPL 6:1| 1.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.152 3:1| 1.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.87 88| 12| 0130208/2200Z 34 04022KT 32.1F SNPL 4:1| 0.9|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.226 3:1| 1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 1.09 46| 54| 0130208/2300Z 35 04025KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343 3:1| 1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 1.44 0| 0|100130209/0000Z 36 04024KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.344 3:1| 1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 1.78 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z 37 03022KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.412 3:1| 1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 2.19 0| 0|100130209/0200Z 38 01019KT 32.6F SNPL 8:1| 3.3|| 0.37|| 0.00|| 0.404 5:1| 5.2|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 2.59 54| 38| 8130209/0300Z 39 36017KT 30.3F SNOW 9:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.252 6:1| 7.6|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 2.85 100| 0| 0130209/0400Z 40 35018KT 28.7F SNOW 5:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.273 6:1| 8.9|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.12 100| 0| 0130209/0500Z 41 34019KT 26.3F SNOW 6:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.214 6:1| 10.1|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.33 100| 0| 0130209/0600Z 42 34019KT 24.0F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 6:1| 11.1|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.46 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z 43 34020KT 21.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 6:1| 11.9|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.54 100| 0| 0130209/0800Z 44 34021KT 19.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 7:1| 12.9|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.60 100| 0| 0130209/0900Z 45 34021KT 18.8F SNOW 22:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 7:1| 14.0|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.65 100| 0| 0130209/1000Z 46 33020KT 18.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 7:1| 14.6|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.69 100| 0| 0130209/1100Z 47 33020KT 18.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 7:1| 14.8|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.72 100| 0| 0130209/1200Z 48 33020KT 18.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 7:1| 15.0|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.74 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z 49 33020KT 18.2F SNOW 19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 7:1| 15.1|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.74 100| 0| 0 KISP 130208/1200Z 24 08013KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 59| 0| 41----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z 25 08014KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 64| 0| 36130208/1400Z 26 08015KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 77| 0| 23130208/1500Z 27 07016KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.046 0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.12 66| 21| 13130208/1600Z 28 06018KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.093 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.21 27| 46| 27130208/1700Z 29 06020KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.32 0| 0|100130208/1800Z 30 06020KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.43 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z 31 06020KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0|100130208/2000Z 32 06022KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100130208/2100Z 33 06023KT 33.5F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.92 21| 66| 13130208/2200Z 34 05026KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.301 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.23 0| 0|100130208/2300Z 35 04029KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.294 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.52 0| 0|100130209/0000Z 36 04030KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.344 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.86 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z 37 03030KT 33.2F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.283 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.15 2| 95| 3130209/0200Z 38 02029KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 11:1| 1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.27 100| 0| 0130209/0300Z 39 01027KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139 10:1| 2.8|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.41 100| 0| 0130209/0400Z 40 36025KT 29.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 10:1| 3.9|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.53 100| 0| 0130209/0500Z 41 35025KT 27.0F SNOW 6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109 9:1| 4.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.64 100| 0| 0130209/0600Z 42 34025KT 24.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.103 9:1| 5.2|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.74 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z 43 34026KT 22.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 9:1| 6.2|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.84 100| 0| 0130209/0800Z 44 34026KT 20.6F SNOW 14:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077 9:1| 7.3|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.92 100| 0| 0130209/0900Z 45 34026KT 20.0F SNOW 16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 10:1| 8.3|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.98 100| 0| 0130209/1000Z 46 34025KT 20.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 10:1| 9.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.03 100| 0| 0130209/1100Z 47 34024KT 19.8F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 10:1| 9.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.07 100| 0| 0130209/1200Z 48 33024KT 19.1F SNOW 17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 11:1| 10.2|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.11 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z 49 33024KT 18.0F SNOW 27:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 11:1| 11.1|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.14 100| 0| 0130209/1400Z 50 32024KT 17.1F SNOW 20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 11:1| 11.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.17 100| 0| 0130209/1500Z 51 33026KT 16.8F SNOW 18:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 11:1| 11.9|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.18 100| 0| 0130209/1600Z 52 33027KT 16.8F SNOW 21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 12:1| 12.1|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.19 100| 0| 0130209/1700Z 53 33026KT 16.6F SNOW 22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 12.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.20 100| 0| 0130209/1800Z 54 33027KT 16.8F SNOW 23:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 12:1| 12.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.21 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1900Z 55 33026KT 17.3F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 12:1| 12.8|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.22 100| 0| 0 KJFK 130208/1100Z 23 07011KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 48| 0| 52130208/1200Z 24 07013KT 34.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 23| 9| 68----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z 25 07014KT 34.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 15| 23| 63130208/1400Z 26 07015KT 34.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 50| 0| 50130208/1500Z 27 06016KT 33.3F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 19| 31| 50130208/1600Z 28 05018KT 33.3F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 2| 32| 66130208/1700Z 29 05019KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 0| 0|100130208/1800Z 30 05019KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.112 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z 31 05019KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 0| 0|100130208/2000Z 32 05019KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.170 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 0| 0|100130208/2100Z 33 05021KT 33.5F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.233 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99 35| 45| 20130208/2200Z 34 04024KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.299 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.29 0| 0|100130208/2300Z 35 04027KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.323 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.61 0| 0|100130209/0000Z 36 03027KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.386 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.00 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z 37 03026KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.431 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.43 0| 0|100130209/0200Z 38 02023KT 33.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.363 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.79 64| 19| 17130209/0300Z 39 36020KT 31.0F SNOW 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.180 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.97 100| 0| 0130209/0400Z 40 35020KT 29.2F SNOW 5:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.211 6:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.19 100| 0| 0130209/0500Z 41 35021KT 27.0F SNOW 5:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178 6:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.36 100| 0| 0130209/0600Z 42 34021KT 24.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 6:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.48 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z 43 34021KT 22.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 6:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.56 100| 0| 0130209/0800Z 44 34022KT 20.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 7:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.62 100| 0| 0130209/0900Z 45 34022KT 18.9F SNOW 20:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 8:1| 6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.67 100| 0| 0130209/1000Z 46 34022KT 18.4F SNOW 21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 8:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.71 100| 0| 0130209/1100Z 47 33021KT 17.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 8:1| 8.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.74 100| 0| 0130209/1200Z 48 33021KT 17.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 8:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.76 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z 49 33021KT 17.7F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 9:1| 8.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.77 100| 0| 0 Big winner is KSWF with 39.0". Loser is KFJK with 8.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So for the experts...Will there any snow on the ground in and around NYC at 7Am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS changes over to snow at the coast around 6 pm but the heaviest precip is east in line with the RGEM. We have seen the NAM a little too far west with the precip shield so far this winter like others have mentioned. gfs_namer_054_precip_p48.gif GFS looked colder than its last run to me-the 0 line at 850 never even makes it to NYC. It also looked stronger than its last run. The trend seems to be a stronger system to the NW of last night. The ensembles on its last run were actually NW of its operational run. Might not be done trending. This isn't to say the NAM is right-but a compromise close to the Euro may be more right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bloomberg pulling another Sandy. By 6AM, Saturday, NYC will be approaching 18" of snow IMO. 4-6". And, yes, it's a bad call. Being conservative doesn't make sense here because data we have indicates that this is going to be a big one. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is no rain!!! Rossi how do u figure that?gfs soundings show a surface temp of almost 40 for nyc at hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The gfs ensembles should be interesting. They could determine if the op gfs is still too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 RGEM total snow (liquid equiv in millimeters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The model consensus is now 12 plus from NYC onto Long Island . The guidance is there now , I hope it gets reflected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Once again, we'll have the Euro to settle the score. Honestly a 4-8" snowfall is what I'm willing to take given how a good chunk of this winter and of course last winter have been. Many on here are way too greedy. bingo....4-8 good call for central jersey from Trenton north ..maybe 6-12 north jersey/nyc with more in the sweet spots and where the banding sets up. too many jump on those huge totals like moths to flames without thinking. what I would like to know is the precip type at the start and whether we change over to rain or not. Might be a day where I need to presalt early to take care of the initial slop, then a period of rain might was some of that away and then get ready for the dump in the evening. For some reasons these things tend to end earlier then forecasted at least in my memory especially if the CCB is setting up north and east of Central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LC is not buying the 12z NAM. Sticking with 3-6 for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 are we forgetting how far east the gfs was on the 00z run? Look at there the surface low is on the this run. Not worried about east. Not worried about the 0z. Bet you a buck the GFS is underdoing the precip on the western frontier of the precip sheild. Nevermind there is no visable deformation set up, but we can assume it appears somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Considering that snow sounding for NYC, ALL of that precip between 33 and 39 hours is snow. omg. Maybe a little of that is a mix for areas further east, but not much. Just took a look at kisp and its isothermal at hour 30 and surface at 32/33 at hr 33 and beyond. It's snow with a little mix of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS looked colder than its last run to me-the 0 line at 850 never even makes it to NYC. It also looked stronger than its last run. The trend seems to be a stronger system to the NW of last night. The ensembles on its last run were actually NW of its operational run. Might not be done trending. This isn't to say the NAM is right-but a compromise close to the Euro may be more right. Yeah, just have to watch the warm air on the front end during the afternoon with a 40kt LLJ out of the ENE before the CCB gets going tomorrow night. JFK 18z GFS SFC 1007 35 4.2 3.4 94 0.8 3.8 56 20 276.8 277.6 276.6 290.0 4.85 1 1000 91 4.1 3.1 93 1.1 3.7 59 27 277.3 278.1 276.8 290.2 4.76 2 950 506 1.5 1.5 100 0.0 1.5 69 40 278.7 279.5 277.2 291.0 4.48 3 900 940 -0.4 -0.6 99 0.2 -0.5 81 43 281.0 281.7 277.8 292.4 4.06 4 850 1397 -1.4 -1.8 97 0.4 -1.6 91 34 284.6 285.3 279.5 295.8 3.9 NAM SFC 1008 39 1.3 0.6 95 0.7 1.0 42 21 273.8 274.5 273.8 284.6 3.97 1 1000 103 0.9 0.5 97 0.5 0.7 52 27 274.1 274.7 273.9 284.8 3.95 2 950 514 -0.9 -1.1 99 0.2 -1.0 66 44 276.3 276.9 274.8 286.4 3.71 3 900 947 1.4 1.4 100 0.0 1.4 95 50 282.9 283.7 279.6 296.0 4.69 4 850 1408 0.5 0.5 100 0.0 0.5 116 45 286.7 287.5 281.3 299.9 4.66 5 800 1892 -1.6 -1.6 100 0.0 -1.6 132 42 289.5 290.2 282.1 301.7 4.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bloomberg pulling another Sandy. By 6AM, Saturday, NYC will be approaching 18" of snow IMO. 4-6". And, yes, it's a bad call. Being conservative doesn't make sense here because data we have indicates that this is going to be a big one. Period. Cuomo pulled is a## out of the fire with Sandy after in his infinate wisdom told everyone that Sun at 9AM the city would be open for business that Mon morning , Luckily the GOV usurped him . This time he`s lucky . Its a SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LC is not buying the 12z NAM. Sticking with 3-6 for the city No model is currently showing that little for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This highlights that the best place to be is still north of the city and most likely east. Someone from Philly to central NJ still has a shot at getting screwed. Will have to see as the models shift back and forth whehter its going to be Philly/Eastern PA or closer to western parts of the NYC Metro that are in the cutoff area. Remember in 12/26/10 places in NE NJ did much better than expected but people over NW NJ did much worse and in Dec 2000 we saw 25" in NW NJ while 50 miles away had less than 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So as of now...NE NJ/NYC EURO- 12-18" GFS- 9-13" NAM- 12-24"+ RGEM- 8-12" Not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No model is currently showing that little for the city. Well technically the UKMET is LOL, actually not even that but I'm not even gonna get into that after it went to the Azores last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Cuomo pulled is a## out of the fire with Sandy after in his infinate wisdom told everyone that Sun at 9AM the city would be open for business that Mon morning , Luckily the GOV usurped him . This time he`s lucky . Its a SAT What really boggles my mind is that I'm sure he's in direct contact with the boys from Upton and I highly dought they would tell him only 3-6" is the lilely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well technically the UKMET is LOL, actually not even that but I'm not even gonna get into that after it went to the Azores last night. The UKMET has been terrible and if I remember correctly it was the absolute last model to bring back Boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 bingo....4-8 good call for central jersey from Trenton north ..maybe 6-12 north jersey/nyc with more in the sweet spots and where the banding sets up. too many jump on those huge totals like moths to flames without thinking. 4-8 is too low IMO...even the GFS which is on the eastern/drier end of model guidance (and may not be done trending) has 0.75-1'' QPF for central NJ, and even if some of that is lost to mixing better ratios at night should make up for it. 8-12'' is a better call IMO but if the GFS keeps trending towards the NAM/Euro and they basically hold their ground then a foot plus is definitely not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This highlights that the best place to be is still north of the city and most likely east. Someone from Philly to central NJ still has a shot at getting screwed. Will have to see as the models shift back and forth whehter its going to be Philly/Eastern PA or closer to western parts of the NYC Metro that are in the cutoff area. Remember in 12/26/10 places in NE NJ did much better than expected but people over NW NJ did much worse and in Dec 2000 we saw 25" in NW NJ while 50 miles away had less than 6" These storms tend to have very sharp cutoffs. When you have very intense banding and synoptics taking place the areas directly under the banding can see a ton while areas to either side can see half that or even less. The best banding for Boxing day stayed just to my east. That's why I got 14" and Wayne just to my east got 20" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No model is currently showing that little for the city. Progressivity will always be a nagging concern of mine as well as a late phase, but things are looking up, IMO. If the Euro doesn't back off today, we can probably lock at least a significant if not major event for most. It's been the most rock solid with this and is best at handling these phase/transfer-type systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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